Spotlight Pitchers: MLB DFS Wild Card Picks For DraftKings + FanDuel | Walker Buehler | 9/30

Given the miniscule offering of one-game play-ins of years past, this best-of-three Wild Card format is a godsend of sorts. When was the last time we got to enjoy an eight-game MLB DFS slate of playoff baseball? And more importantly, why did it take a global pandemic to arrive here?

What matters now is that we finally have a full Wild Card Series rather a couple of one-and-done matchups, which translates to some real decisions to be made in the pitching department. With this day already marking elimination games in the four series played yesterday, the heat is on for Wednesday’s main slate with intriguing pitching options.

The following MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more free DraftKings and FanDuel MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows.


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MLB DFS Picks: Wednesday’s Best Wild Card Pitching Plays

Walker Buehler – Dodgers vs. Brewers – DraftKings $8,800, FanDuel $10,000

He had a shaky first half of the 2020 season, but Walker Buehler has since turned his game around to closer resemble his Cy Young-contender form of the past two years. Even despite the rough outings, Buehler has posted some solid numbers over the course of the shortened 60-game season, with a 0.95 WHIP, .178 batting average against and .198 BABIP. His strikeouts are slightly down from last season (28.6% strikeout rate from 29.2% in 2019), but still up from 2018 (27.9%) and drawing a fantastic opponent in that consideration.

The Milwaukee Brewers eked into the playoff picture thanks to the collapse of the San Francisco Giants (among others), becoming the first team in Major League history to make the playoffs with a losing record (29-31). Although it isn’t the numbers in the win/loss column that are the fantasy appeal here, the allure to the strikeout upside is certainly justifiable. The Brewers had the second-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in the regular season at 27.2%, only trailing the Detroit Tigers.

Milwaukee is also proving incapable of producing points against right-handed pitchers, with an 83 wRC+ and .681 OPS (26th in MLB). The Brewers’ mediocre .161 ISO demonstrates power below the league average (.173 ISO), making Buehler’s 1.72 HR/9 slightly less of a looming concern. Milwaukee also accounts for a .278 BABIP (22nd in MLB), further lending to the notion of lacking offense manufactured.

Buehler may carry his reasons for doubt, but his past 30 days featuring three starts have further improved upon his overall season averages. During that recent time frame, Buehler’s dealt a 31.1% strikeout rate, a 4.4% walk rate (down from 7.5% all season) and an outstanding 0.77 WHIP. Against a Brewers team that has helped produce season-best outings for opposing pitchers, Buehler factors as one of the best options for Wednesday’s Wild Card outing.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points B, Value E

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades:  Points B, Value B

Dallas Keuchel – White Sox at Athletics – DraftKings $7,300, FanDuel $6,700

I’ll beg that you at least hear out the explanation as to why Dallas Keuchel made the list of pitching considerations because a case can be made beyond savings for the White Sox lefty (though the discount from other pitchers doesn’t hurt the cause).

Keuchel isn’t the strikeout generator he was from his Cy Young era in Houston, but his matchup with the Oakland Athletics pairs well with his strengths. Keuchel has a 16.3% strikeout rate for the season, below league average. Yet Keuchel has a solid 1.09 WHIP, 1.99 ERA (his career best), and a .217 BAA that’s still much greater than league average of .245. However, there’s more to be told of the opposing Oakland offense that gets my attention coupled with Keuchel’s salary savings at the starting pitcher position.

The A’s as an offensive unit are not predominantly strikeout heavy on a regular basis. Against all pitchers this season, Oakland is striking out just above league average at 23.8% (23.4% MLB average). It’s when an opposing lefty takes the mound that the Athletics’ offensive numbers take a significant step backwards. They’re striking out against lefties at MLB’s eighth-highest rate of 24.2%, while engineering subpar offense with a 93 wRC+ and .301 wOBA (23rd in MLB). The A’s also lack power against lefties with a .152 ISO (.171 against all pitchers), amidst insult to injury to their already-abysmal home run feasibility.

Although Oakland doesn’t have the ground ball propensity, which would play to another of Keuchel’s strengths (40.2% for A’s; league average 42.7%), it’s still worth noting that Keuchel accounts for a 52.8% ground ball rate, whereas the league average is more than 10% under that output. The icing on the cake comes in the aforementioned home run deficits of Oakland; they’re managing a 12.4% home run/fly ball rate against left-handed pitching (23rd in MLB) and popping up to the infield at a 13.2% infield fly rate against lefties (league average 9.5%). This is where Keuchel shines as well, producing a whopping 14% infield fly ball rate, well above the pitching average of 9.5%. The nail in the coffin here is Keuchel’s staggering 0.28 HR/9, which marks the best in the majors for the category.

The fantasy points for him may be harder to come by considering his strikeouts are beneath league average. However, there are a number of elements to outweigh that concern, which are of great testament to rostering Keuchel. While he may not be the first candidate for GPP tournaments, Keuchel seems like an excellent play for cash games given his cost and high floor.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points D, Value B

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades:  Points C, Value D

Sandy Alcantara – Marlins at Cubs – DraftKings $6,800, FanDuel $7,600

The Miami Marlins are in their first postseason appearance since their World Series title run 17 years ago. In an intriguing Wild Card series matchup with the Chicago Cubs, the Marlins are running right-handed Sandy Alcantara to the mound to start Game 1. Alcantara is an unsung hero for the Marlins and actually has a matchup worthy of consideration while bringing significant savings to the equation.

Albeit in a condensed 60-game regular season, Alcantara has posted some of his best career numbers to date, featuring a solid 1.19 WHIP, .274 BABIP and .224 BAA. His strikeout numbers are just beneath league average at 22.7% and 8.36 K/9. His 3.00 ERA is far improved from the league average (4.45) and touting an impressive 0.86 HR/9. The Cubs offense against right-handed pitchers, while not anywhere near bottom of the barrel, may still be what the doctor ordered when it comes to Alcantara’s matchup therein.

The Cubs are striking out against righties at the fifth-highest rate in the majors at 25.9%, while getting below-average run production against right-handed pitchers, indicated by their 93 wRC+ and .278 BABIP (24th in MLB against righties). Also not helping their situation is the Cubs’ increased likelihood of falling susceptible to the ground ball, as Chicago is doing such at the third-highest rate in Major League Baseball with a 45.% ground ball rate versus righties. Better yet, Alcantara is delivering ground ball hits well above league average (42.7%) at a noteworthy 48.5% ground ball rate.

He’s recently proven himself against lethal lineups such as the New York Yankees (25.7 DraftKings points). Coming at a discount (contrast to other pitchers) on a day where getting exposure to some of the pricier hitting stacks would be advised to some degree in your entries, Alcantara is quite possibly the best value play at starting pitcher on Wednesday’s eight-game endeavor.

Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points C, Value B

Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades:  Points C, Value A


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Once a man of 12-team teaser parlays and an abundance of season-long fantasy leagues, Chris "TopherSquints" Giordani gradually honed his fascination for sports and plus-money wagers toward Daily Fantasy Sports. A homegrown Awesemo student from the early stages of the site's inception, he became infatuated with the contrarian DFS mindset and eventually combined his passion for writing with Daily Fantasy at the Sports Gambling Podcast's website blog. Currently, Chris Giordani resides in Orange County, California, enjoys binging on stand-up comedy, and long strolls through the DraftKings lobby.

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