Following a Major League Baseball season left swimming in uncertainty at the height of pandemic safety and player negotiations, we’ve finally arrived to MLB’s coveted pennant chase, and there is still MLB DFS to be played. The format, much like that of the altered regular season duration, is also new to all, with the inclusion of eight teams per league and everyone starting in a best-of-three contention.
Featuring the likes of the first team ever with a losing record to reach the playoffs (Milwaukee Brewers, 29-31), there are many fresh elements to the new format’s offering. However, when it comes to Daily Fantasy, there are no differences to take into consideration but only constants: Nail your pitching as well as your stacking agenda, and your lineups should be in great shape (easier said than done, naturally).
The following MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. For more free DraftKings and FanDuel MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows.
Related MLB DFS Content
- Learn MLB DFS: DraftKings + FanDuel Primer
- MLB DFS Quick Hits: HRs, Stacks & Ownership Plays
- Top Stack Tool (PREMIUM)
- Awesemo’s Top Pitcher Tool (PREMIUM)
- The MLB Strategy Show Live Before Lock
MLB DFS Picks: Tuesday’s Best Pitching Plays
Gerrit Cole — Yankees at Indians – DraftKings $8,600, FanDuel $10,900
Featuring a pitching duel for the ages, New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole takes the mound to trade strikeouts with AL Cy Young frontrunner Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Indians. While they’ll both have their work cut out for them, facing some stud hitters from each side of this affair, this Game 1 looks to be settled primarily on the mound, as it has the lowest game total on the slate at 6.5 total runs (6 runs on some books). While I like either pitcher for DFS rosters, the beneficiary of facing a slightly less lethal offense would arguably be Cole, and at a slight discount from Bieber (by a minimal margin of $400 on DraftKings, $300 FanDuel).
Speaking of the opponent bats, since the Indians strike out just beneath the league average of 23.4% (Cleveland 23%), their inconsistency to produce at the plate aligns as a prime opportunity for Cole. Stat geeks surmise that with many home runs come many strikeouts, and looking at Cole’s opponents in Cleveland would lend to their theory. The Cleveland offense has been glaringly known for their cold streaks this season with an 86 wRC+ (27th in majors), and they present dismal power at the plate with a .144 ISO (26th).
Cole is striking out batters at the seventh-highest rate among starting pitchers (32.6%), walking just 5.9% of batters, representative of a 0.96 WHIP and 11.59 K/9. While Cole presents a 1.73 HR/9 worthy of some concern, the Indians don’t offer so much of a threat in the home run department, as they’ve hit 59 home runs through the regular season, 27th in MLB just ahead of the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Cardinals. Cleveland’s home run/fly ball rate is every bit as subpar, converting just 11.5% of balls hit skyward into home runs (28th).
Cole is the second-most expensive starting pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel, yet the premium price point can easily go overlooked. Given the opponent’s shortcomings coinciding with Cole’s talents, the value is very much in favor of Cole.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value D
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
Lucas Giolito — White Sox at Athletics – DraftKings $8,300, FanDuel $9,200
Lucas Giolito has had himself an impressive season while helping his Chicago White Sox reach their first postseason appearance in 12 years. In fact, he’s having his best strikeout numbers of his professional career with a 33.7% strikeout rate (fifth among starting pitchers), including 12.07 K/9, and doing a great job of minimizing damage with a 1.04 WHIP in 2020.
It’s against right-handed hitters where Giolito has had a favorable matchup this year, and he’ll be slated to face five of them in the projected Athletics hitting order. Giolito’s numbers took a bump in prevalence when facing opposing righties, where his HR/9 improves from a 1.00 to 0.89, while the strikeouts dip just slightly by 1.5% to 32.2% (still outstanding). His WHIP also improves to a 0.96 against right-handed hitters, 11.1% home run/fly ball rate well below league average (15.5% HR/FB vs. RHH) and walking 7.6% of them (compared to Giolito’s overall 9.7% walk rate).
Against right-handed pitchers, the Athletics are floating exactly at the league average in strikeouts at 23.7% strikeout rate, 104 wRC+ (league average 100) and just below average with .728 OPS (.740 MLB average). While the A’s do have ambidextrous Robbie Grossman, along with adding left-handed hitters Tommy La Stella and Jake Lamb late in-season, Giolito is actually torching lefties off the plate at an even higher rate than his average with a 34.7% strikeout rate against the league lefties. Although Giolito’s HR/9 shifts to a 1.07 against left-handed hitters, the Athletics are 28th in home run/fly ball rate in the past 30 days (which would include Lamb and La Stella) at a meager 10.3% home run/fly ball.
His strikeouts may be a bit harder to come by today, but against an A’s team hitting league average in several departments, Giolito may very well have a dominant fantasy performance.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
Blake Snell — Rays vs. Blue Jays – DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $8,300
Although he hasn’t gone more than 5 2/3 innings through the regular season, Blake Snell was managed around the return from his elbow surgery last season, gradually eased back into a more standard workload preparing for the hopeful postseason. Here the Rays stand atop the American League heading into a Game 1 with their stud lefty rested and ready to roll. Facing the Blue Jays, given their track record of league average outings versus left-handed pitchers, Snell has the feasible opportunity to shine at a slight discount in fantasy asking price.
Snell has notched a fantastic outing in 2020 with 11.34 K/9 and a 31.0% strikeout rate with a 1.20 WHIP well above league average (1.33 WHIP MLB average). He’s projected to be facing seven right-handed hitters in the Blue Jays batting order, where Snell sees his strikeout numbers fall to a 27.6%. However, the Blue Jays have a 23.6% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers this season (12th in MLB). At the same time, they’ve had some success as well with a .761 OPS and 110 wRC+ against lefties.
While the Blue Jays’ home run/fly ball ratio against left-handed pitchers is just above league average, one must keep in mind this is playoff baseball, and drawing league average numbers in an opponent is more of a plus than anything. In fact, Snell’s HR/9 numbers are slightly lower against opposing right-handed hitters than his overall average (1.73 against righties to 1.80 HR/9). When it comes to right-handed hitting opposition, Snell still maintains his dominant fashion and has the ceiling for fantasy numbers worth rostering.
Awesemo’s FanDuel Grades: Points A, Value A
Awesemo’s DraftKings Grades: Points A, Value A
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