MLB DFS Picks: Stack Slants for DraftKings + FanDuel

We have short-slate action with just two games to choose from for MLB DFS today. The top stacks tool is relatively close, making it difficult to select a realistic stack that isn’t popular. I made an attempt to look for a quality low-owned stack within the higher-owned teams, but again we’re running into roughly 20% or higher ownership per player on most of the quality teams. With that in mind, the only logical thing to do is explore if the Marlins hitters have a chance against Yu Darvish.

This stack falls short of a recommendation. Darvish is highly likely to mow these hitters down without much issue, but we’re playing the ownership and angles game. With the explosive ownership that Darvish should see on the pitching side, we pick up a significant amount of leverage on the field by going to Marlins bats in the event that they get to him. By zeroing in on some of the lower-owned, good-upside plays in the lineup, we get a bit further afield from some of the competition who also landed on the lower-owned play. This one is not for the faint of heart.

MLB DFS Stack Slants | DraftKings + FanDuel | Oct. 02

Miami Marlins – 3-7 – Aguilar – Anderson – Cooper – Joyce – Rojas

The upstart Marlins are the Cinderella team of this year’s MLB playoff dance. The team was frisky all season and their roster improved as the two months went along. They have a monumental task in front of them with the Cubs’ ace on the hill in opposition, but on a two-game slate in an anything-can happen-sport, this is what we’re working with.

Darvish was spectacular in 2020. He made 12 starts and posted a 2.82 xFIP to his 2.01 ERA, while striking out 31.3% of hitters and cutting his walk rate from 8.6% for his career to just 4.7% this season. Darvish induces swinging strikes with his four-seamer and a variety of junk, all working off his excellent cutter.

The Marlins were last in baseball with a .128 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2020. The team did still manage to create runs just eight percent worse than average, which is good for a team so lacking in power. They struck out 24.2% of the time in the split while walking 9.5%. Looking through the individual numbers, we do have a few options in the lineup to work with despite the absence of outfielder Starling Marte.

The first two hitters in the lineup are highly owned. Corey Dickerson costs just $3,500 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel and is drawing around 30% ownership on both sites. He’s a good option and one of the better bets for a home run on a team that is unlikely to hit one today. Still, at that ownership we can probably make a better decision for large-field GPPs.

Jon Berti is drawing even more ownership hitting second behind Dickerson with a price tag of just $3,000 on DraftKings and $2,700. The second baseman also has outfield eligibility on DraftKings. In his 149 plate appearances in 2020 he hit two home runs and had a .092 ISO with a WRC+ 14% above average. Berti’s value is in his ability to get on base and set the table for the hitters behind him while swiping the occasional base for some bonus points. Berti had nine stolen bases in 2020, 17 in 2019. Still, at nearly 40% ownership, he’s a bit popular for my tastes.

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The rest of the Marlins’ ownership falls off a cliff after that pair. Jesus Aguilar hits third and bats on the right side of the plate. In his 157 opportunities against same-handed pitching this season, Aguilar had a .156 ISO and a WRC+ 7% above average. He struck out just 17.8% of the time in the split while walking 10.8% of the time. He’s a very good option here at half the ownership of his teammates for just $3,600 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel.

Brian Anderson and Garrett Cooper provide additional right-handed pop in the cleanup and five spot in the batting order. Anderson hit 11 home runs to lead the team in 2020, while Cooper put up six of his own in just 133 plate appearances. The pair were 21% and 33% above average respectively at creating runs over the course of the season. Anderson was the best on the team with a .236 ISO and a WRC+ 24% above average against same-handed pitching this season.

The Marlins lineup continues with Matt Joyce, one of my favorite plays on this slate, hitting sixth. Joyce costs just $2,100 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel, and he’s not drawing much ownership at under 10%, which is very low for this slate. Joyce was a hitter I featured last night in Quick Hits. He profiles as one of the better Marlins bats in this spot. For his career, Joyce has a .253/.355/.448 slash with a .195 ISO and a WRC+ 21% above average, while walking 13.3% of the time, against right-handed pitching.

Miguel Rojas is a $3,800 shortstop on DraftKings. He costs just $2,700 on FanDuel where he’s slightly more popular, which is understandable with the discount. Rojas hit .304/.392/.496 in his 143 plate appearances in 2020, with four home runs and five stolen bases. His WRC+ 42% above average led the Marlins this season.

Magneuris Sierra and Chad Wallach add a few mix-and-match options late in the lineup. Sierra hits from the left side of the plate and has a career .223/.267/.259 slash in his 270 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Wallach has hit two of his three career home runs against right-handed pitchers, which is the most positive indicator I can find. He’s fine as a low-owned swap-in catcher where the position is required. I wouldn’t go out of my way to roster him where it is not.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.