Thursday brings us another fun-looking four-game slate of playoff baseball. We have several very juicy matchups for MLB DFS purposes, as these teams collide with the back end of their rotations. With the Yankees, A’s, Padres and Marlins all facing elimination, there will be some desperation strategy on display. We could see pitchers yanked early if they get into trouble and some interesting strategic moves like defensive replacements later in games. The four elimination games could also spell a quick end to the four-game slates, and we might be talking Championship Series matchups this time tomorrow. For now, let’s dive in.
MLB DFS Stack Slants | DraftKings + FanDuel | Oct. 08
Oakland Athletics – 1-5 – Semien – La Stella – Pinder – Davis – Olson
The Athletics are facing another do-or-die situation, but I like their chances against the Astros with Zack Greinke on the mound. The A’s hit 60 home runs against right-handed pitching and had a .176 ISO, both 14th in the league. The individual power upside is what we’re after for MLB DFS purposes, but the team marks improve greatly by adding 2019 to the sample.
The projected lineup for the A’s opens with shortstop Marcus Semien, who has flashed some power in these playoffs and is looking more like the hitter who we saw blast 33 home runs and compete for an MVP in 2019. At just $4,100 on DraftKings and $2,900 on FanDuel, he’s a very interesting option at the position. Since the start of 2018, Semien has struck out just 16.6% of the time against right-handed pitching while walking 10.0%, helping push his WRC+ to 9% above average in the split.
Tommy La Stella has a questionable tag coming into this one, but I expect him to go. He should be hitting at or near the top of the lineup and bringing left-handed quality from both a hit tool and power perspective. La Stella had a .303/.393/.510 slash with a .207 ISO and a WRC+ 51% above average against right-handed pitching in 2020.
Chad Pinder was in the lineup against a right-handed pitcher yesterday, so why not do it again? We have him hitting third in the projected lineup, and he should be a great bargain again at just $2,200 on DraftKings and $2,300 on FanDuel. With just 15% ownership projected at that price, Pinder is in play. For his career, Pinder has a .233/.284/.421 slash with a WRC+ 11% below average against same-handed pitching. The platoon struggles are real but perhaps a bit blown out of proportion.
Resurgent Khris Davis is penciled into the cleanup spot, with masher first baseman Matt Olson hitting fifth behind him. These are the two landmines in the A’s lineup that Greinke and the bullpen will have to dance around all day. With that much power on both sides of the plate, the duo can give opposing pitching fits when they’re right. This season Olson carried the A’s with his 14 home runs in 245 plate appearances. Davis hit over 40 homers for each of three seasons coming into last year. We’ve discussed the hand injury that drained his power and killed his stat line for 2019 and 2020, but he appears to be swinging the bat well once again. I’m excited to roster the pair for just $8,100 combined on DraftKings and $5,800 on FanDuel.
Mark Canha and Stephen Piscotty hit from the right side of the plate and provide reliable quality, if not tremendous upside. Canha had a .246/.387/.408 slash with five home runs and a WRC+ 27% above average this season. He had a better year than Piscotty, who posted just a .226/.271/.358 but missed some time. Both hitters stole four bases, adding small but unpredictable bonus point potential.
Ramon Laureano is a more likely option to steal a base, though somehow he turned the trick just twice in 2020. Overall he had a down year, with just six home runs and a .213/.338/.366 slash that saw him relegated to the bottom of the lineup for most matchups. Laureano has flashy MLB DFS upside, however, as we saw in his 24 home runs and 13 stolen bases in just 481 plate appearances in 2019.
Sean Murphy is a catcher that everyone will be rostering in the future. He’s grown in popularity and is up to around 11% in today’s projections. While that’s heavy for a player who may be limited in plate appearances by hitting ninth, it’s still reasonable for the power upside that the backstop provides at a difficult position for offense. Murphy hit seven home runs in his 140 plate appearances in 2020 and was fourth on the team with .232 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Marlins – Jazz Chisholm – 2B/SS – $2,900 / $2,200
Jazz Chisholm is a rookie who hasn’t seen much action in the postseason. He was called up to the marlins late in the season and put up just a .161/.242/.321 slash in his 62 plate appearances. He did manage to hit two home runs in that extremely small sample, though his 30.6% strikeout rate needs to be managed. The kid has major quality upside and has flashed it in the minors after signing in the International Pool out of the Bahamas. In 364 plate appearances in AA ball for Arizona last year, Chisholm hit 18 home runs and added 13 stolen bases. He’s inexpensive and likely to draw little to no ownership.
Padres – Tommy Pham – OF – $3,200/$2,800
Tommy Pham is fighting back from a hamate bone break that would have most normal players still on the Injured List. That he made it back for these playoffs at all is impressive. The fact that he’s gotten back and put up a .400/.429/.500 slash with three stolen bases in his 21 plate appearances in the postseason says more about the player’s upside. Hamate breaks are extremely difficult for hitters to return quickly from. They impact the way the handle of the bat can be gripped, making it difficult to maintain a normal swing plane. Pham is a proven 20-20 star with upside for more. He’s turned that specific trick twice in his career, adding a third season in which he hit 21 home runs but came up short on the basepaths with just 15 steals. Pham is an excellent option again, and he’s going under-owned by quite a bit.
Dodgers –Â Chris Taylor – 2B/OF – $4,100 / $2,800
Chris Taylor brings right handed upside to the end of the Dodgers lineup, and he’s going basically untouched, easily one of the lowest owned and most affordable options in the Dodgers lineup. Taylor had a .270/.366/.476 slash overall in 2020, with eight home runs and a WRC+ 32% above average. Taylor has a career .188 ISO with a WRC+ 10% above average in his career against lefties. Although he hits for less average in the split, he does strike out less and walk more. Against rookie Adrian Morejon, I like the chances for Taylor to have an impact on the game and on MLB DFS lineups.
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