UFC Vegas 22 may be headlined by Brunson vs Holland, but there are plenty of other great fights to keep an eye on. This weekly Fight Analysis article will break down and analyze every matchup on the card. Below you’ll find my data-driven analysis for each match and a pick to win; this info will help us make UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
UFC DFS Picks: Brunson vs. Holland DraftKings + FanDuel
Brunson vs. Holland
Let me start this by saying, the main event is a must-roster fight. I will be invested in both fighters because of the cheap salaries, and the stylistic matchup of the fight. Kevin Holland has been on fire lately, racking up victories throughout the pandemic and increasing his stock with each performance. Holland is a dangerous striker who could test the chin of Derek Brunson but will have to seek out advantageous opportunities; it wouldn’t be wise for him to get overzealous and subsequently taken down. Brunson is a phenomenal value at $7800 due to his wrestling threats; and the fact we have seen Holland struggle defending takedowns. I will slightly lean in Holland’s favor but will have plenty of exposure to Brunson.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Holland ($8,400)
Gillespie vs. Riddell
In the co-main event of the evening, Gregor Gillespie will return from a knockout loss and face Brad Riddell. I can immediately tell you that Gillespie will be a chalky play due to his heavy wrestling approach, and the fact Riddell has struggled defending takedowns. It’s not quite that simple, though, as there are many unknowns in this matchup. We don’t know how Gillespie will look after a long layoff, and we don’t know how he will mentally handle adversity in the cage going forward. Takedown city could be approaching, but I can’t ignore the underdog Riddell either. He is one of the best strikers in the UFC and could test the chin of Gillespie early. I will be prioritizing the main event and co-main event fights, so splitting your exposure is certainly recommended. I think the new DraftKings scoring system is tailored around Gillespie’s style. Slight lean to Gillespie.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Gillespie ($9,000)
C. Buys vs. Ruiz
Up next we have two debutants looking to make a splash in WMMA- Cheyanne Buys vs Montserrat Ruiz. I can’t help but feel hesitant going into this matchup with so many unknowns surrounding the fighters. On the Contender Series, Buys was an aggressive fighter who incorporated pressure and solid boxing; now he’s faced with a tough challenger, who is also an Invicta FC veteran. An upset against the relatively untested Buys would not surprise me here, but I think Buys can do enough to walk away with the victory on her aggression alone. It’s tough to feel confident in this fight, and I will personally be underweight.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Buys ($9,100)
Yanez vs. Lopez
In an exciting bantamweight pairing, we have Adrian Yanez taking on Gustavo Lopez. Since the Contender Series I have been impressed with Yanez, and I think he is a prospect within the division. I would consider Yanez to be a high-level striker because he incorporates feints, fakes, body shots and a variety of attacks to keep his opponents guessing. Lopez is an extremely tough fighter that is well-rounded, but could be at a significant speed disadvantage in this matchup. If Lopez does not close the distance and utilize his grappling, I’m afraid he will be picked apart from the outside. Lopez’s toughness could bring out the best in Yanez, or it could truly test his endurance. I will sprinkle Lopez in some of my lineups due to his grappling route and impressive 92% finish rate, but the more likely outcome is a Yanez striking clinic.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Yanez ($8,800)
Griffin vs. Kenan
In a welterweight matchup we have Max Griffin taking on Song Kenan. Admittedly, this is not the most exciting matchup, but it could be a sneaky target for your DFS lineups. Griffin is a technical striker who possesses solid wrestling in his back pocket. Kenan is a talented striker that relies on the big shot to wobble his opponents, and has an 88% finish rate. I will sprinkle Kenan in a a few lineups, but Griffin’s length could be an issue here with the 5″ reach advantage. Griffin should be able to keep the fight on the outside when he wants to, and mix in some takedowns to test the 45% Takedown Defensive rating of Kenan. If Griffin goes the grappling route, we have a nice value at $8500.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Griffin ($8,500)
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Tuivasa vs. Hunsucker
In a heavyweight banger, we have Tai Tuivasa taking on Harry Hunsucker. This fight should not disappoint as both men have finish rates north of 90%. Hunsucker took this fight on short-notice, but he is coming off a KO victory just a few weeks ago. You could do worse than a Hunsucker punt play, considering heavyweight MMA is unpredictable at times. I do favor Tuivasa significantly in this matchup and think this is a tailor-made matchup for him. Tuiviasa inside the distance with a salary under 9k? Sign me up.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Tuivasa ($8,900)
Chiasson vs. Reneau
In what could be an interesting WMMA bout, we’ll see  Macy Chiasson versus UFC Vet Marion Reneau. Stylistically, this matchup screams close decision, but I could see either fighter impress in this spot. Chiasson is an aggressive striker with great physicality for the division and should look to utilize her dominant clinch-game. Reneau is a talented striker with solid BJJ, so this matchup should be interesting. I have some interest in the underdog because Chiasson has let us down in the past. I want to forgive Chiasson because I think she has a lot of potential in the division, but I also feel like Reneau’s boxing could be the deciding factor in this matchup.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA:Â Reneau ($7,500)
Dawson vs. Santos
In another matchup with lots of unknowns, we have Grant Dawson taking on Leonardo Santos. I am tempering expectations in this matchup because Dawson is now facing a legitimate opponent with skills in all areas, despite being 41 years old. Santos is a phenomenal BJJ practitioner who has solid striking as well. It’s tough to trust either fighter in this matchup since Dawson is stepping up in competition, and Santos hasn’t been an active combatant. Dawson is a star in the making, especially under the tutelage of James Krause but could struggle in moments against Santos. It’s important to remember that Santos holds victories over Kevin Lee and Tony Martin. I will have some exposure to the underdog, but will be leaning towards a Dawson victory in a grinding fight.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Dawson ($8,600)
Dolidze vs. Giles
Next we have a grappling great in Roman Dolidze taking on Trevin Giles. This matchup could be pivotal to your DFS lineups, as both men have finish rates above 85%. Dolidze has developed power in his hands, but should look to implement takedowns early and attempt to submit Giles. The longer this fight goes on, the more Giles is a live underdog with skills in all departments. We’ve seen Giles struggle against submission artists in the past, and if I’m Dolidze, I’m testing his ground game immediately. There’s no way you should avoid the underdog, but I think Dolidze could be too much for Giles in this matchup. At their cheap salaries, there’s no way you should avoid exposure to either side. I believe Dolidze could be too much in the grappling department, and work towards a finish.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Dolidze ($8,200)
Jackson vs. Strader
In a short-notice fight, we have Montel Jackson taking on Jesse Strader. I will be smashing exposure to Jackson, despite the heavy price tag. Jackson is an extremely well-rounded fighter with impressive power, and strong takedowns to rely on. Strader is a relatively inexperienced fighter, and hasn’t had to overcome much diversity throughout his career. Strader is a power puncher, who invests in multiple body shots with a final blow to the head, often rocking his opponents and leading to a knockout. Jackson’s ridiculous length, speed and experience should be too much for the newcomer, and could lead to a ridiculous score. Outside of a puncher’s chance, Jackson wins this fight in dominant fashion.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Jackson ($9,400)
J. Buys vs. Silva
Kicking off UFC Vegas 22 we have JP Buys taking on Bruno Silva and this fight could surprisingly deliver. Both fighters scramble well, and fight at a high-pace which could enrich their DFS scores. I am favoring the underdog Silva here, because I feel like he has faced the stronger opposition, and has won rounds against tougher opponents. Silva is good in all facets of the game, and could match Buys in the wrestling department. I believe Buys will be a popular play on the slate, and I think Silva is my underdog pick of the week.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Silva ($7,900)
