Hello, UFC fans. This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in New Mexico, including a main event between Cory Anderson and Jan Blachowicz. The main GPP has $30,000 going to first place with a total of $150,000 being paid out. Let’s dig into some MMA DFS analysis.
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Mark De La Rosa $7,400 vs. Raulian Paiva $8,800
Cash: Raulian Paiva is playable in all formats.
Mark De La Rosa‘s nickname is “The Bumblebee” for good reason: he stings his opponents on the mat and puts them to sleep with his submission skills. He has six submission wins and one TKO win out of 11 tries, fighting out of Factory X and Genesis MMA. De La Rosa hasn’t picked up a victory in over a year with the last win coming over Joby Sanchez in November 2018. He has a nice right hand-left hook combination and he will stand and trade. His grappling game is where he feels most comfortable and he will be looking to get the fight to the mat. He is a very physical fighter and likes to move forward and back his opponents up against the cage, and he has fast hands with good power.
Raulian Paiva is an orthodox fighter, fighting out of Team Alpha Male in California. He has good left-right combinations and nasty body kicks, and will control the center to walk his opponent down. He feels training at Team Alpha Male has made him a new and better athlete by teaching him new techniques and helping to become more well-rounded in wrestling and boxing.
MMA DFS Pick: Raulian Paiva via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Macy Chiasson $9.400 vs. Shanna Young $6,400
Cash: Shanna Young is playable in all formats.
Macy Chiasson is an aggressive fighter, dangerous in the clinch with nasty knees to the body and head. She is powerful, athletic and a strong grappler, also throwing spinning heel kicks and front kicks. Chiasson was the season 28 winner of The Ultimate Fighter as a featherweight, but she hasn’t competed at 145 pounds since the show ended and is now competing at bantamweight.
Shanna Young is stepping in on short notice due to Nicco Montano suffering an MCL injury. Young is the former King of The Cage woman’s bantamweight champion. She has good grappling skills thanks to her background in jiu-jitsu and judo. I think Young is a good replacement opponent for Chiasson to face, and this should be an interesting fight.
MMA DFS Pick: Shanna Young via Unanimous Decision.
Casey Kenney $7,800 vs. Merab Dvalishvili $8,400
Cash: Casey Kenney is playable in all formats.
Casey Kenney has started off his UFC career with solid victories over Ray Borg and Manny Bermudez. Kenney is a strong grappler with a solid submission game. I think the upside is there for multiple takedowns since he is strong in the clinch, throwing nice knees and elbows. If he gets his opponents to the mat, then the ground-and-pound begins. He is explosive with his judo throws and double takedowns, and one of his knockout wins came by way of a slam takedown.
Merab Dvalishvili has always dreamed of coming to the United States and fighting at the highest level, and he has arrived. Since meeting Ray Longo and Matt Serra, Dvalishvili has developed into a much better fighter all around. Chris Weidman has also helped sharpen his wrestling skills. Dvalishvili likes taking the fight to the mat, and he has become a more well-rounded grappler. His takedown average is 7.33 per every 15 minutes.
MMA DFS Pick: Casey Kenney via Unanimous Decision.
Rogerio Bontorin $7,900 vs. Ray Borg $8,300
Cash: Rogerio Bontorin is playable in all formats.
Rogerio Bontorin is an excellent grappler and a black belt in jiu jitsu. He’s also an exciting counter-striker, throwing left hook and straight right hands to the body to hurt his opponents. Bontorin is strong and physical, and he is solid in the clinch where he can land huge slams if he gets his arms wrapped around the body. I feel he is the stronger fighter and will have a clear advantage on the ground.
Ray Borg is explosive and a solid wrestler, but he mostly likes to throw uppercuts that are quite fast. His ground-and-pound from the top position is nasty, throwing in volume elbows and heavy hands. Borg is sneaky and excellent at taking the back where he will attack with a rear naked choke. I think this is a very good matchup and should be a fun fight to watch.
MMA DFS Pick: Rogerio Bontorin via Third-Round Submission.
Jim Miller $8,000 vs. Scott Holtzman $8,200
Cash: Jim Miller is playable in all formats.
Jim Miller is a solid wrestler and has a strong submission game. He is a black belt in jiu jitsu and has a lighting quick jab and straight left hand that can be devastating. His uppercut combination with inside leg kicks are dangerous. I think he has a nice shot at a victory by way of submission, coming off back-to-back submission wins.
Scott Holtzman had one the best performance of his career by stopping Alan Patrick with devastating elbows at UFC 229 in 2018, and his most recent fight is a knockout win over Dong Hyun Ma. After his knockout win over Patrick, Holtzman said “I know Jim Miller is available and I think that would be a good fight.” Holtzman is a physical fighter and has a good grappling game, strong in the clinch with nasty elbows. He likes to walk his opponents down and will use inside leg kicks followed by a straight left hand. Both fighters have a legitimate shot to win, but I’m leaning more towards Miller.
MMA DFS Pick: Jim Miller via First-Round Submission.
Jon Dodson $7,600 vs. Nathaniel Wood $8,600
Cash: Nathaniel Wood is playable in all formats.
Jon Dodson is a two-time flyweight title challenger, Dodson has lost three of his last four fights, all by decision. He is a southpaw and is a black belt in Gaidojutsu. His grappling is solid with decent ground-and-pound. A powerful striker, Dodson is best known for his dangerous switch kick.
Nathaniel Wood Is certainly making a case for himself to be the new generation of fighter, training under British veteran Brad Pickett at Team Titan. Wood has developed a high-volume, huge action style of fighting. He his fighting style as controlled aggression, evidenced by his elite stand-up that uses low kicks and then one-twos. In his fight versus Vaughn Lee in 2017, Wood attacked him with a 17-punch combination.
MMA DFS Pick: Nathaniel Wood via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Tim Means $9,100 vs. Daniel Rodriguez $7,100
Cash: Tim Means is playable in all formats.
Tim Means is a well-rounded fighter with solid grappling and excellent striking, and he leads with front kicks to the body and nice one-twos. He will throw a dangerous straight right, left hook combination, and he has nasty elbows, hooks and uppercuts. Means has strong ground-and-pound that can lead to a stoppage in a hurry.
Daniel Rodriguez is an efficient striker with speed in his hands. He will throw one-twos and overhand rights with power. Rodriguez is a solid wrestler with good takedown skills, and he has great takedown defense as well. I feel this is a great matchup and should be a fun fight to watch.
MMA DFS Pick: Tim Means via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Lando Vannata $8,100 vs. Yancy Medeiros $8,100
Lando Vannata says his fighting style is one of a kind, his own personal fingerprint in the sport. His explanation was a blend of creativity, unpredictability, efficiency, power and a distinct mindset that he refers to as “savage clam.” He is a sharp striker and solid grappler, and he throws nice one-twos, straight right hands, uppercuts and spinning back fists. He also has dangerous low, front and side kicks.
Yancy Medeiros has a karate background and is a well-round fighter, known for his slapping front kick that will take the spark out of any opponent. He described this as his go-to kick and it is basically a front kick that he took from karate and kickboxing. Medeiros has a nice jab that sets up his front kicks and spinning kicks to the body.
MMA DFS Pick: Lando Vannata via Unanimous Decision.
Brok Weavers $9,200 vs. Rodrigo Vargas $7,000
Cash: Brok Weaver is playable in all formats.
Brok Weaver is making his UFC debut. He was the star of the show at Dana White’s Contender Series 24, winning an entertaining unanimous decision over Devin Smyth. Weaver is a solid striker with good wrestling skills. He throws a jab with heavy straight right hand combinations.
Rodrigo Vargas seems to be the kind of fighter that starts quickly but struggles in the later rounds. I don’t think he is very good on his feet, and just an OK wrestler. He leaves his head open and is vulnerable to being hit, so i feel this not a good fight for him.
MMA DFS Pick: Brok Weaver via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Montana De La Rosa $8,700 vs. Mara Romero Borella $7,500
Cash: Montana De La Rosa is playable in all formats.
Montana De La Rosa was the former Xtreme Fighting League flyweight champion. She has a wrestling background plus an elite submission game. Her stand-up is average, but she has been working on it, wanting to show she can stand and let her hands go. She will need to take this fight to the mat where she will have an advantage. Don’t be shocked if she lets her hands go to try to show her boxing game has improved.
Mara Romero Borella is truly lucky she’s even able to compete in the UFC, after being banished in Italy for 26 years for drug dealing. USADA later ruled that she could compete in the UFC, as her criminal charges were not related to performance-enhancing substances. She throws nice one-twos and right hooks, and she has low kicks with a good straight right-jab combination.
MMA DFS Pick: Montana De La Rosa via Second-Round Submission.
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Devin Clark $7,900 vs. Dequ0an Townsend $8,400
Devin Clark is a well-rounded striker who can be dangerous on the feet. He throws a nasty jab and a nice straight right hand. Clark is a good counter-striker, throwing spinning back fists when opponents pressure him. His superman punches are nasty, and he will throw dangerous combinations to close the distance. Devin Clark is a Junior College National Wrestling Champion, so he has strong grappling skills and may look to take the fight to the mat.
Dequan Townsend is making a quick turnaround after fighting three weeks ago at Fight Night 166. He only lands 1.22 strikes per minute and he absorbs 2.99 per minute. Townsend has knockout power with a dangerous high kick. Therefore, i don’t see this being a very competitive fight, but you can’t sleep on Townsend because of his power.
MMA DFS Pick: Devin Clark via Unanimous Decision.
Diego Sanchez $7,700 vs. Michel Pereira $8,500
Cash: Michel Pereira is playable in all formats.
Diego Sanchez is a decent striker and likes to throw heavy overhand rights and left hooks. He also has a nasty straight left-overhand right combination and mixes in uppercuts. He is a strong grappler and has decent control on the mat with good ground-and-pound.
Michel Pereira will have significant power and size advantage. He is an elite kickboxer, shown by becoming the 2014 WAKO World Cup Kickboxing Champion. He has dangerous spinning back and round kicks, and he is a black belt in Muay Thai kickboxing. Pereira has a strong striking game as well, throwing nice jabs, one-twos and straight right combinations. I think his size and power will get the job done over the veteran Sanchez.
MMA DFS Pick: Michel Pereira via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Corey Anderson $8,900 vs. Jan Blachowicz 7,300
Cash: Corey Anderson is playable in all formats.
Corey Anderson has looked unstoppable of late, most recently with his first-round knockout of Jimmy Walker. Anderson is a solid wrestler and has been dominant in his recent fights; he has landed over 20 takedowns in his last four. His jabs to the body and head are nasty, and he throws nice combinations with a mixture of uppercuts. He throws a ton of volume and is always pressuring his opponents. I think this will be a fun fight to watch and we will probably see some heavy exchanges.
Jan Blachowicz is looking to show Anderson how different of a fighter he has become since their last meeting in 2015. He has solid knockout power and his jab-uppercut combination is dangerous. He is a black belt in jiu jitsu, which makes him strong in the clinch, and he will break with nasty elbows and knees.
MMA DFS Pick: Corey Anderson via Second-Round KO/TKO (I think Anderson’s current dominance will be too much for Blachowicz to overcome).
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