Hello, UFC fans. This weekend, we have 13-fight card in New Zealand, including a main event between Paul Felder and Dan Hooker. The main GPP has $25.000 going to first place with a total of $120,000 being paid out. The following are the fights i feel have the most upside. Let’s dig into some MMA DFS analysis.
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Maki Pitolo $7,900 vs. Takashi Sato $8,300 (Cancelled)
Cash: Takashi Sato is playable in all formats.
Maki Pitolo
- Age: 29
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 170 lbs.
- Reach: 69 in.
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Record: 12-5-0
Maki Pitolo Is desperately seeking a win after losing his UFC debut to Callan Potter at UFC 243. Pitolo likes to push the pace and he will back his opponents up against the cage by throwing heavy one-twos. He has a nice jab-straight right hand combination, and he will throw front kicks to the body and head. In his debut, he appeared to be gassed towards the end of the second round. Pitolo had his moments on his feet, but Potter countered effectively. The third round was a brilliant grappling display from Potter, as he took the fight to the mat immediately and dominated Pitolo’s inside guard the remainder of the fight.
Takashi Sato
- Age: 29
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 170 lbs.
- Reach: 73 in.
- Record:15-2-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
Takashi Sato made a name for himself on the Japanese MMA scene where he put together a 13-2 record between 2013 and 2018. Sato made his UFC debut in April 2019 when he was matched up against Ben Saunders, and he was able to knock out the veteran in round two. Sato has fast hands and a nasty and dangerous left cross. He has strong takedown offense and will take his opponents to the mat, where he will control the guard and use nasty ground-and-pound. My preferred play is Sato. I think he has a huge advantage if he can get this fight to the mat, and I feel confident he will do so.
Pick: Takashi Sato via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Loma Lookboonme $7,3 00 vs. Angela Hill $8,900
Cash: Loma Lookboonme is playable. (Due to price and upside.)
Loma Lookboonme
- Age: 24
- Height: 5-foot-2
- Weight: 115 lbs.
- Reach: 61.5 in.
- Record: 4-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
Loma Lookboonme made her UFC debut against Aleksandra Albu, winning via split decision. Lookboonme is a Thai martial artist, competing in Muay Thai, boxing, kickboxing and mixed martial arts. She’s a good striker, throwing nice one-twos and jab combinations with nasty knees to the body and head. She has a phenomenal Mauy Thai hip throw from the clinch, and when she gets her opponent to the mat, her top control and ground-and-pound are nasty.
Angela Hill
- Age: 35
- Height: 5-foot-2
- Weight: 115 lbs.
- Reach: 64.5 in.
- Record: 11-7-0
- Striking Accuracy: 51%
Angela Hill is making a quick turnaround after coming off a win over Hannah Cifers via knockout just four weeks ago. Hill is extremely fast and will back her opponents up against the cage by throwing heavy volume of one-twos and leg kicks. She has nasty round kicks to the body, therefore making her dangerous on her feet. In this fight, she will need to slow her pace down because she is facing an opponent that can stand and trade with her. Lookboonme’s cardio seems to be solid, and that has been Hill’s weakness: starting too fast and tiring quickly. My preferred play is Hill, but I think Lookboonme has a decent shot at pulling off the upset.
Pick: Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision.
Jake Matthews $9,100 vs. Emil Meek $7,100
Cash: Avoid.
Jake Matthews
- Age: 25
- Height: 5-foot-9
- Weight: 170 lbs.
- Reach: 73 in.
- Record: 15-4-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
Jake Matthews is an Australian mixed martial artist and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Matthews has a solid wrestling game, and when on top, his ground-and-pound is vicious. He has nice single- and double-leg takedowns, and when he gets his opponents to the mat, there is always the thread of a submission via rear-naked choke. In this fight, he should be looking to take this fight to the ground where he can control the guard and top position, using his vicious ground-and-pound to seal a victory.
Emil Meek
- Age: 31
- Height: 5-foot-9
- Weight: 170 lbs.
- Reach: 74.5 in.
- Record: 9-4-1
- Striking Accuracy: 38%
Emil Meek hasn’t fought since July 22, 2018. That is a lengthy layoff for a UFC fighter. Meek will be trying to shake off the rust in hopes of getting back in the win column. He likes to push the pace and start fast, coming out charging his opponents and always pushing forward. He has a nice overhand right with a powerful right cross. Meek’s grappling game is solid and he is always looking for a submission on the mat. He lists his favorite grappling technique on his UFC bio as the “Viking Armrip”. When asked about this style, he described it as more force, more ruthless and less technique. My preferred play is Matthews, but given they both have solid grappling and stand-up, this should be a fun fight to watch.
Pick: Jake Matthews via Third-Round KO/TKO.
Brad Riddell $7,800 vs. Magomed Mustafaev $8,400
Cash: Brad Riddell is playable in all formats.
Brad Riddell
- Age: 28
- Height: 5-foot-6
- Weight: 155 lbs.
- Reach: 71 in.
- Record: 7-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
Brad Riddell made his UFC debut in October last year in Australia, winning a “fight of the night” decision over Jamie Mullarkey. Riddell is a solid striker with knockout power and his straight right hand-left hook combination is dangerous. He will use heavy punches to the body, which when landed cleanly will send any opponent to the mat. He is an elite kickboxer with powerful round kicks to the body and head. I think Riddell will be looking to keep this fight off the mat. His only loss was via armbar, so I’m sure he will avoid being taken down.
Magomed Mustafaev
- Age: 31
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 155 lbs.
- Reach: 71 in.
- Record: 14-2-0
- Striking Accuracy: 55%
Magomed Mustafaev is a powerful southpaw striker with huge knockout power. In his last fight, he faced promotional newcomer Rafael Fiziev, winning via first-round technical knockout. He has a spinning back kick that is powerful and extremely dangerous when landed cleanly. He throws a nice jab-left hook combination that has knockout power when landed. Mustafaev is an unorthodox fighter that is not technical, but very effective with his striking. My preferred play is Riddell, and I think this fight has a real shot at being fight of the night. Both fighters are high-volume strikers with one-shot knockout power.
Pick: Brad Riddell via Unanimous Decision.
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Karolina Kowalkiewicz $7,000 vs. Yan Xiaonan $9,200
Cash: Yan Xiaonan is playable in all formats.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
- Age: 34
- Height: 5-foot-2
- Weight: 115 lbs.
- Reach: 64 in.
- Record: 12-5-0
- Striking Accuracy: 39%
Karolina Kowalkiewicz is a Polish mixed martial artist and she will be desperate for a win after three straight losses. Kowalkiewicz has a nice one-two-right hook combination and she has solid front kicks to the body and head. She throws a nasty uppercut that can be dangerous when landed cleanly. In this fight, she will need to be at her best form, because she will be facing a well-rounded opponent in Xiaonan.
Yan Xiaonan
- Age: 30
- Height: 5-foot-4
- Weight: 115 lbs.
- Reach: 63 in.
- Record: 11-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 40%
Yan Xiaonan was the first Chinese female fighter signed by the UFC. She is a solid striker and has a nasty jab. Xiaonan throws a nice left hook-straight right combination and has a dangerous spinning back fist that she throws with power. She says her confidence is up after taking an extended break to nurse an ankle injury that came during a jiu-jitsu session. In her match versus Syuri Kondo, Xiaonan landed a record 150 significant strikes to get a unanimous-decision win. My preferred play is Xiaonan, as I think she will be the dominant fighter on the feet and will have an advantage in the grappling game if she gets taken down.
Pick: Yan Xiaonan via Unanimous Decision.
Jimmy Crute $8,000 vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk $8,200
Cash: Michal Oleksiejczuk is playable in all formats.
Jimmy Crute
- Age: 23
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 74 in.
- Record 10-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 45%
Jimmy Crute was Australia’s Hex Fight Series light heavyweight champion, and he is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Crute is an aggressive, athletic fighter who throws nasty elbows and knees to the body in the clinch. He has a dangerous straight right-left hook combination and solid body kicks that he will throw them in volume. Crute is a powerful man, but he isn’t a knockout threat, only having accumulated three in his career.
Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Age: 24
- Height: 6-foot-0
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 74 in.
- Record: 14-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: 59%
Michal Oleksiejczuk was the former Thunderstrike Fight League light heavyweight champion in Poland. He is a southpaw power striker and his hands are extremely fast. Oleksiejczuk throws a nasty jab-left hook combination that is dangerous when landed cleanly. He has nice front kicks to the body and he will throw a spinning back fist with speed and power. His grappling is average, though he has nice side and top control with nasty ground-and-pound. My preferred play is Oleksiejczuk, as his power and speed will be too explosive for Crute to defend. This should be an exciting fight with two capable strikers.
Pick: Michal Oleksiejczuk via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Paul Felder $7,500 vs. Dan Hooker $8,700
Cash: This fight can be stacked.
Paul Felder
- Age: 35
- Height: 5-foot-9
- Weight: 155 lbs.
- Reach: 70.5 in.
- Record: 17-4-0
- Striking Accuracy: 44%
Paul Felder has showed some of the best form in his career since going to Roufousport. He is an elite grappler and is nasty in the clinch, throwing heavy knees to the body and head. He has vicious ground-and-pound, throwing devastating elbows and punches to the head. On his feet, Felder is a technical striker, throwing a right hand-left hook combination to the body. Felder likes to throw spinning backfists and spinning heel kicks and has a dangerous spinning back elbow that will knock out his opponents.
Dan Hooker
- Age: 30
- Height: 6-foot-0
- Weight: 155 lbs.
- Reach: 75 in.
- Record: 20-8-0
- Striking Accuracy: 43%
Dan Hooker was the King in the Ring middleweight kickboxing champion. He is a striker with a stinging jab and a heavy straight right hand. He is good in the clinch, throwing elbows to the head and knees to the body. Hooker likes to switch stances and is effective from both, which makes him tricky to fight. He has solid leg kicks and his round kick can be dangerous when landed cleanly. Hooker is a solid grappler and has a nice submission game. My preferred play is Hooker, but I think this fight could be a brawl and possibly fight of night. In this matchup, the best way to victory for Hooker is to keep things standing. He can be susceptible to submission when getting into grappling exchanges with his opponents.
Pick: Dan Hooker via Third-Round KO/TKO.
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