Hello. UFC fans. This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Norfolk, including a main event between Joseph Benavidez and Deiveson Figueiredo. The main GPP has $25.000 going to first place with a total of $120,000 being paid out. The following are the fights I feel have the most upside. Let’s dig into some MMA DFS analysis.
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Sean Brady $7,600 vs. Ismail Naurdiev $8,600
Cash: Avoid.
Sean Brady
- Age: 27
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 170 lbs.
- Reach: 72 in.
- Record: 11-0-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: +105
Sean Brady is the former Cage Fury Fighting Championships welterweight champion. He made his UFC debut in October, taking on veteran Court McGee, and grinded out a decision win. Brady is a technical striker; he likes to push the pace and walk his opponents down. He will use his one-twos, jab and overhand right to back his opponents up against the cage. His spinning back kick can be dangerous when landed clean, and he will follow with a nasty spinning back fist. Brady is a strong grappler and a black belt in jiu-jitsu. He can be nasty and tricky in the clinch where he will take down his opponents and unleash vicious ground-and-pound. Brady has two submission wins and three knockout wins in his career.
Ismail Naurdiev
- Age: 23
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 170 lbs.
- Reach: 74 in.
- Record: 19-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: -125
Ismail Naurdiev is an Austrian mixed martial artist, a solid striker with 11 knockouts in his career. Naurdiev likes to throw his jab and spinning elbow combination, followed with vicious knees to the body and head. He has nice front and side kicks to the head and body that can be dangerous when landed clean. Naurdiev is a solid grappler and has nasty ground-and-pound. My preferred play is Brady, as I think the way he pushes the pace and keeps walking his opponents down will be too much for Naurdiev to handle.
MMA DFS Pick: Sean Brady via Unanimous Decision.
Marcin Tybura $8,000 vs. Sergey Spivac $8,200
Cash: Sergey Spivak is playable in all formats.
Marcin Tybura
- Age: 34
- Height:6-foot-2
- Weight: 249
- Reach: 78 in.
- Record: 17-6-0
- Striking Accuracy: 53%
- Betting Odds: Even
Marcin Tybura is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Tybura is a solid striker, but he is coming into this fight on a downward spiral, having lost four of his last five. He is light on his feet, especially for a man of his size. He has fast hands with big power. Tybura is a strong grappler with a solid submission game, leading to six submission wins in his career. When he goes forward, he is aggressive, throwing front and side kicks to the body. In this fight, I think Tybura will have to get this fight to the mat. Otherwise, I see him being knocked out early due to his weak chin.
Sergey Spivac
- Age: 25
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 260 lbs.
- Reach: 78 in.
- Record: 10-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: -120
Sergey Spivac will be looking to get his first win in the UFC after Walt Harris played spoiler in Spivac’s debut by bulldozing over him in 50 seconds. Spivac is a solid striker, throwing a nice jab-one-two combination, and has a powerful overhand right. He is nasty in the clinch, throwing knees and elbows to the body. My preferred play is Spivac, as I think the path to victory for him is to keep this fight standing and land his overhand right to Tybura’s weak chin.
MMA DFS Pick: Sergey Spivac via Second-Round KO/TKO.
Brendan Allen $7,900 vs. Tom Breese $8,000
Cash: Brendan Allen is playable in all formats.
Brendan Allen
- Age: 24
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 185 lbs.
- Reach: 75 in.
- Record: 13-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: 38%
- Betting Odds: +115
Brendan Allen Is coming in on an impressive debut performance where he submitted Kevin Holland at UFC on Fox 6 in Boston. Allen is a technical striker that has power in his hands. He has a solid jab and nice right hook. He is aggressive moving forward, throwing heavy punches and nasty knees to the body. Allen is a solid grappler and should be looking to take this fight to the mat. In top position, he has nice control and is always looking to take the back.
Tom Breese
- Age: 28
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 185 lbs.
- Reach: 73.5 in.
- Record: 11-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 50%
- Betting Odds: -135
Tom Breese is an English mixed martial artist, a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Chiu Kwong Man. Breese has not fought since 2018 when he squared off against Dan Kelly, defeating him via TKO. He has a nice jab-straight left hand combination that is dangerous and powerful. Breese is nasty in the clinch, throwing vicious knees and elbows to the body and head. My preferred play is Allen; the concerns I have in this fight for Breese is the extended layoff from the octagon and if he can knock off the rust.
MMA DFS Pick: Brendan Allen via Unanimous Decision.
Grant Dawson $9,300 vs. Darrick Minner $6,900
Cash: Grant Dawson is playable in all formats.
Grant Dawson
- Age: 26
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 145 lbs.
- Reach: 72 in.
- Record: 14-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 45%
- Betting Odds: -420
Grant Dawson is an up-and-coming prospect. He was supposed to fight at UFC 246 in January. However, due to drug testing abnormality, he was removed from the bout. Dawson is an elite grappler and has a strong submission game. He throws a nice jab, one-two, straight-right combination and has nasty inside leg kicks. In this fight, I think Dawson’s best path to victory is to keep this fight standing and make Minner strike with him.
Darrick Minner
- Age: 29
- Height: 5-foot-6
- Weight: 145 lbs.
- Reach: 69.5 in.
- Record: 23-10-0 (MMA)
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: +335
Darrick Minner is stepping in on a days’ notice because Chas Skelly had to withdrawal due to injury. Minner is making his long-awaited UFC debut. He is mainly a grappler and has solid jiu-jitsu. He is a pressure wrestler, so he can get this fight to the mat where he is a huge threat for any opponent. Minner seems too be wild on the feet, and that’s where he can have big trouble in the UFC. My preferred play is Dawson, as I think he will have a huge advantage by keeping this fight on the feet because Minner’s one weakness is his striking.
MMA DFS Pick: Grant Dawson via Unanimous Decision
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Ion Cutelaba $7,200 vs. Magomed Ankalaev $9,000
Cash: Magomed Ankalaev is playable in all formats.
Ion Cutelaba
- Age: 26
- Height: 6-foot-1
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 75 in.
- Record: 15-4-0
- Striking Accuracy: 39%
- Betting Odds: +175
Ion Cutelaba likes to start fast and is explosive and aggressive. He throws a nice jab and overhand right that is dangerous and will knockout any opponent when landed clean. Cutelaba will attack the body with heavy punches and will throw round kicks to the head. He is a Moldovan national champion in judo and sambo. Cutelaba is extremely dangerous in the clinch, throwing vicious knees to the body and nasty elbows to the head. In this fight, I think Cutelaba best path to victory will be to utilize a heavy wrestling attack.
Magomed Ankalaev
- Age: 27
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 75 in.
- Record: 12-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 53%
- Betting Odds: -210
Magomed Ankalaev is a Russian mixed martial artist, coming into this fight on a three-fight win streak. Ankalaev is a southpaw and an explosive fighter who likes to throw a jab-overhand right combination, mixing in uppercuts. He has a dangerous counter left hook-straight right hand combination, and he throws powerful round kicks to the body and head. My preferred play is Ankalaev, as I think his constant forward pressure and his powerful kicks will be too much for Cutelaba to withstand.
MMA DFS Pick: Magomed Ankalaev via Second-Round KO/TKO
Felicia Spencer $9,400 vs. Zarah Fairn dos Santos $6,800
Cash: Felicia Spencer is playable in all formats.
Felicia Spencer
- Age: 29
- Height: 5-foot-5
- Weight: 145 lbs.
- Reach: 68 in.
- Record: 7-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: -800
Felicia Spencer will be looking to get back on track after her decision loss to Cris Cyborg in July. Spencer is a grappler and has good top control. She likes to throw superman punches to get inside, and she will throw front kicks to the body and head. Spencer is tough and will continue to press forward and her chin is solid. In this fight, I think Spencer will be looking to take this fight to the mat and grind out a win.
Zarah Fairn dos Santos
- Age: 33
- Height: 5-foot-7
- Weight: 145 lbs.
- Reach: 72 in.
- Striking Accuracy: N/A
- Betting Odds: +550
Zarah Fairn dos Santos will be hoping to bounce back after her debut loss to Megan Anderson. She is not a good striker, but in the clinch is where she can be dangerous, throwing nasty knees to the head and body. Dos Santos will use dirty boxing and straight punches to back her opponents up against the cage. In this fight, I think dos Santos will need to use her takedown defense to stay off the mat and get in the clinch where she is most dangerous. My preferred play is Spencer, as I think her grappling and toughness will seal the win.
MMA DFS Pick: Felicia Spencer via Second-Round Submission.
Joseph Benavidez $8,800 vs. Deiveson Figueiredo $7,400
Cash: Fight is stackable.
Joseph Benavidez
- Age: 35
- Height: 5-foot-3
- Weight: 125 lbs.
- Reach: 65 in.
- Record: 28-5-0
- Striking Accuracy: 34%
- Betting Odds: -150
Joseph Benavidez will be looking to put UFC gold around his waist in Norfolk. Benavidez is a powerful striker who likes to throw a jab-straight right combination. He is strong in the clinch, throwing nasty knees and elbows to the body and head. Benavidez will throw front kicks to the body and round kicks to the head. His left hook-straight right is dangerous when landed clean. In this fight, Benavidez will need to push the pace to keep Figueiredo backing up and shoot for takedowns to get him on the mat.
Deiveson Figueiredo
- Age: 32
- Height: 5-foot-4
- Weight: 125 lbs.
- Reach: 68 in.
- Record: 17-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 52%
- Betting Odds: +130
Deiveson Figueiredo is a big flyweight with one-punch knockout power. He is an explosive fighter and very athletic, he will throw a jab-straight right that is powerful and dangerous. Figueiredo likes to attack the body with right hooks and straight left hands that are powerful. He doesn’t have good takedown defense, which means he can be susceptible to being taken down numerous times. In this fight, Figueiredo will need to us his straight right hand and jab to keep Benavidez at distance. My preferred play is Benavidez. I think he will use the clinch to his advantage and keep pressuring Figueiredo and will edge a decision.
MMA DFS Pick: Joseph Benavidez via Unanimous Decision.
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