UFC 262 may be headlined by Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler, but there are plenty of others to keep an eye on. This weekly Fight Analysis article will break down and analyze every matchup on the card. Below, you’ll find my data-driven analysis for each match and a pick to win; this info, as well as using Awesemo’s expert MMA DFS projections, Top Fighters Tool and UFC DFS ownership projections will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
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UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler MMA Picks
Oliveira vs. Chandler
This vacant lightweight title fight between Oliveira and Chandler is one for the ages. We have a UFC veteran in Oliveira against cross-promotion standout Chandler. It would be quite the story for Chandler to break into the UFC and become the lightweight champion, but this is an extremely dangerous matchup for him. Oliveira is a superb fighter in multiple areas, but most specifically his jiu-jitsu. He is the most talented submission artist in the game right now, threatening submission finishes at all times. In addition to his jiu-jitsu, he has became a well-rounded fighter with dangerous striking. Both fighters come into this fight with a salary discount, and I don’t see how this fight isn’t apart of the optimal lineup build. Chandler has the talent and power to put away anyone within the division, but can also rag doll his opponents with relentless wrestling. At his given salary of $7,500 he’s one of the best value plays on the slate, but I am leaning Oliveira in the matchup.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Oliveira ($8,700)
Ferguson vs. Dariush
The co-main event is an interesting one between the fan favorite Tony Ferguson and red-hot Beneil Dariush. Up until his previous two fights, Ferguson was heralded as the Boogeyman of the division. Ferguson has dominated competition for a while within the UFC, but short-notice Justin Gaethje and Charles Oliveira were able to solve the puzzle. While Ferguson has been struggling as of late, Dariush has been dominating opposition and staking his claim as one of the dark horses within the division. This is an excellent pairing of talent, and I am predicting a war. Ferguson will come in with some heavy ownership as the underdog, but we could be looking at a nice leverage spot in rostering Dariush. I like what I have been seeing from Dariush lately, and he has inspired confidence in each fight. This is an extremely difficult “rebound” fight for Ferguson, as Dariush will test him in the striking exchanges, and won’t back down throughout. Ferguson hasn’t met many fighters who can match his jiu-jitsu pedigree, but Dariush can. This is another situation where the underdog is a fantastic value play, but I am siding with the favorite in Dariush.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Dariush ($8,600)
Schnell vs. Bontorin
Next is an interesting bantamweight bout between Matt Schnell and Rogerio Bontorin. Admittedly, Schnell is a fighter I can never get right, but did look good in his most recent performance. My worry surrounding Schnell is his susceptibility to get hit with a big shot and finished. Schnell is more suited for a technical fight than a brawl, as evidenced throughout his career. Bontorin is no slouch by any means, and needs to be apart of your underdog pool at $7,300. Bontorin has multiple ways to finish this fight with explosive punches and a strong grappling game, but it won’t be easy. If Schnell can keep this fight at range and pick his shots, I think he walks away victorious relatively easily. If this turns into a brawl, it’s hard to trust Schnell’s chin to hold up. It’s a slight lean towards Schnell.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Schnell ($8,900)
Chookagian vs. Araujo
This next fight between Katlyn Chookagian and Viviane Araujo is a tricky matchup, but not my favorite fight to target for DFS purposes. Whenever Chookagian fights, we have learned to expect an odd matchup, as she will point fight from the outside resulting in underwhelming totals. Araujo is a powerful striker for the division with a strong grappling game in her back pocket, but could struggle with the odd matchup. I see this fight going the distance and not resulting in strong totals. I will side with Chookagian to solidify her spot within the rankings.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Chookagian ($8,800)
Burgos vs. Barboza
Up next is a striker’s delight between the exciting Shane Burgos and dynamic Edson Barboza. This is one of my favorite bouts on the card, and shouldn’t disappoint from a viewer or DFS perspective. We have Burgos, who is primarily a boxer against a kickboxing prowess in Barboza. Both fighters have outclassed their opposition with striking brilliance, and I’m interested to see how this stylistic matchup unfolds. Burgos will throw with high volume, looking to break his opponents with attrition, whereas Barboza relies on devastating power shots, primarily his kicks being the difference maker. I would suggest splitting exposure due to the wild exchanges that will unfold, but I have to side with Barboza in this matchup. I like his complete skillset and think the leg kicks could be the difference maker.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Barboza ($7,800)
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Souza vs. Muniz
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Jacare Souza will be taking on a jiu-jitsu prospect in Andre Muniz in what is a tailor-made matchup for the veteran. Both fighters have dismantled opponents with their suffocating ground game and heralded submission prowess, but Souza is a strong striker as well. Souza has suffered some setbacks against elite competition, but needs a win here. Muniz is a legitimate submission threat against the rest of the division, but it’s hard to say anyone is better than Souza on the mat. Muniz could grind out a decision with a relentless pace, but the more likely outcome is the wily veteran outmaneuvering him on the mat en route to a decisive victory. My level of faith in Souza is at an all time low, but he should win this fight.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Souza ($8,500)
Grundy vs. Vannata
If you’re looking for the weekly Takedown City pick, Mike Grundy is your guy. Grundy will be facing off against striker Lando Vannata, and I like this matchup for him. On the feet, Grundy can compete and throw solid combinations, but his wrestling is at an elite level. The fact Grundy took Movsar Evloev down six times is impressive, and Vannata has shown some deficiencies in his wrestling at times. Grundy is an incredible value at $8,200 and will be a pivotal piece for my lineups.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Grundy ($8,200)
Pickett vs. Wright
In one of the most volatile matchups on the slate we have Jamie Pickett taking on Jordan Wright. It’s impossible to have faith in either man at this point, but at $8,100 for both it makes it hard to avoid. The strength of schedule for both men is incredibly questionable, but I am taking some value in the fact Pickett has fought some UFC caliber opponents and hasn’t been finished by them (Tafon Nchukwi and Punahele Soriano). It’s evident that Wright doesn’t handle pressure or punches well, and if Pickett is able to close the distance to unleash a barrage, he could finish the fight. Wright has some tricky kicks but outside of that I don’t favor him in the matchup.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Pickett ($8,100)
Lee vs. Shevchenko
This next matchup between Andrea Lee and Antonina Shevchenko could be a trap, with both women nullifying each other’s strengths throughout. Outside the UFC Lee was considered as an interesting prospect, but that hasn’t materialized into much. Shevchenko on the other hand has dealt with elevated stock primarily because of her sister’s success. This fight is a lot closer than the odds suggest, and both women have been unreliable. Shevchenko looked good in her previous performance and yes, Lee is on a three-fight losing streak, but they both are takedown threats with solid striking. This fight should be back and forth, and could result in a low-scoring affair. I don’t hate the Lee underdog pick, but I feel like Shevchenko will walk away victorious, struggling to pay off her salary.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Shevchenko ($9,200)
Mazany vs. Cachoeira
In easily the most volatile fight on the slate we have Gina Mazany versus Priscila Cachoeira. It is insane to me that Mazany is a gigantic favorite, because she hasn’t been consistent within the UFC. Mazany has faced the stronger competition, and has a clear wrestling advantage in the matchup. You will be on the edge of your seat if you roster this fight because Mazany could take Cachoeira to Takedown City, or Cachoeira could land a powerful shot and end the fight in an instant. I can’t recommend playing Cachoeira because her striking defense is horrible, and she could be at a significant physical disadvantage. It’s Mazany for me despite the volatility.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Mazany ($9,300)
Aguilar vs. Lutz
In a featherweight clash, we have Kevin Aguilar taking on newcomer Tucker Lutz. I was extremely surprised to see the UFC veteran Aguilar as the underdog in this matchup, especially after investigating Lutz’ strength of schedule. It’s evident that Lutz has some skills and is a dangerous finisher, but this isn’t anything new for Aguilar. I think Aguilar’s experience will play in his favor throughout this contest, and think he is a fantastic value against a debutant.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Aguilar ($7,900)
Soriano vs. Giagos
Kicking off UFC 262 is a GPP special between Sean Soriano and Christos Giagos. Many people will be flocking to Giagos, and for good reason because of his takedown potential. He has displayed a well-rounded skillset inside the octagon, and his wrestling has been the difference maker. As the fight progresses, his cardio falls off a cliff and he becomes extremely vulnerable. Stepping up on short-notice is Soriano, a staple within the Sanford MMA gym, and main training partner for Chandler. Soriano is not the same fighter he was in his first UFC tenure, but I think he could surprise people. Soriano has devastating power for the division and could make things interesting if he defends some initial takedowns. I will be smashing exposure but I am siding with the significant underdog in Soriano.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Soriano ($7,100)
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