UFC Vegas 18 is headlined by Overeem vs. Volkov, but there are plenty of other fights to break down. This weekly Fight Analysis article will break down and analyze every matchup. Below you’ll find my data-driven analysis for each match as well as a pick to win, which will help us make UFC DFS picks and lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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UFC DFS Picks: Overeem vs. Volkov DraftKings + FanDuel AnalysisÂ
Overeem vs. Volkov
In our main event of the evening, we have Alistair Overeem taking on Alexander Volkov. Overeem has one of the most illustrious and legendary careers and has captured titles in multiple organizations. He is known for having devastating power and good striking fundamentals. Over the years we have seen Overeem implement more wrestling, perhaps to avoid being knocked out so frequently. Volkov is a tall striker who utilizes a high-output approach to outclass his opponents. The glaring hole in Volkov’s game is his wrestling defense, but I think he can stifle some takedown attempts and get back to his feet. Volkov should test Overeem’s chin early and often, and I favor him in this matchup. He is a nice mid-range play.
UFC DFS pick: Volkov ($8,600)
Sandhagen vs. Edgar
Our co-main event of the evening features Cory Sandhagen taking on Frankie Edgar. Edgar is one of my favorite fighters of all time and is a legend of the sport. He is the former lightweight champion and has tested himself across three weight classes now. This is old-school matchmaking, placing an up-and-comer against a proven veteran. Sandhagen possesses excellent striking and good jiu-jitsu, but he was exposed against Aljamain Sterling and submitted. Edgar needs to blend his combinations into his wrestling if he wants to be successful here. There is a definite path to victory for Edgar via wrestling, but I think Sandhagen will be a step ahead in this matchup. Edgar is a great value play, but I favor Sandhagen.
UFC DFS pick: Sandhagen ($9,400)
Pantoja vs. Kape
Next we have Alexandre Pantoja taking on Manel Kape, the former Rizin Champion. Pantoja has proven to be a staple in this division, coming off the Ultimate Fighter and showing he’s not just a grappler. Pantoja throws with reckless abandon, is tough as nails and has an incredible jiu-jitsu game. Kape is debuting in the UFC and couldn’t have asked for a tougher fight. Kape is a good striker with great power and nice fluidity. I think it is a tough task to come into the UFC and get a win over a top UFC fighter in Pantoja. I love the skillset I see in Kape, but I’m willing to take a wait-and=see approach here. I favor Pantoja.
UFC DFS pick: Pantoja ($8,300)
Stamann vs. Askar
In one of our late replacement fights of the evening, we have Cody Stamann taking on Askar Askar. Stamann was originally scheduled to face Andre Ewell, but Askar is stepping up as the replacement. Stamann is a well-rounded fighter with a great blast-double, good striking, good fight IQ and a resume to match. Askar is a regional talent looking to make a splash in the UFC Octagon, but he is up against a talented competitor. I favor Stamann in all facets of the game despite the promise in Askar’s abilities.
UFC DFS pick: Stamann ($9,200)
Ferreira vs. Dariush
This matchup between Diego Ferreira and Beneil Dariush has everyone excited. Both gentlemen are extremely talented and considered to be the dark-horses of the division. These men fought six years ago, with Dariush coming out victorious. Over the years we have seen both men evolve into well-rounded martial artists. Dariush possesses more of a Muay Thai style, whereas Ferreira has focused on his boxing. I think Dariush is able to mix up his attacks and keep Ferreira guessing, and I think he has the edge in the grappling department. It’s a close fight, and I will have exposure to both fighters because of the pricing, but I am leaning Dariush.
UFC DFS pick: Dariush ($8,000)
Johnson vs. Guida
We have an old-school classic here with Michael Johnson and Clay Guida. Both fighters are fan favorites but have struggled with consistency. Johnson has displayed excellent boxing, lighting his opponents up with quick combinations. Guida has displayed a high pace and excellent wrestling to solidify rounds. It’s hard to have faith in either man at this point, as they have been winning several fights and slipped up for a second, resulting in defeats. I think that Johnson will be able to neutralize some of Guida’s takedowns and implement sharp boxing en route to a victory. It’s not a fight to feel comfortable about, but this fight could break the slate. I will be targeting both sides of this fight, with a lean towards Johnson.
UFC DFS pick: Johnson ($8,800)
Rodriguez vs. Marques
In this light-heavyweight bout of the evening, we have Mike Rodriguez facing Danilo Marques. Rodriguez is an aggressive striker with excellent Muay Thai. Marques is a jiu-jitsu practitioner and needs to get this fight to the mat immediately. Rodriguez has shown a susceptibility to be taken down in the past, so Marques is a long-shot GPP target. The more likely scenario is that Rodriguez outclasses Marques on the feet en route to a finish.
UFC DFS pick: Rodriguez ($9,000)
Valiev vs. Day
In another late-replacement fight, we have Timur Valiev facing Martin Day. Valiev is a highly regarded prospect and has a complete game of unorthodox striking, mixed with high-level wrestling. Day is a good striker but is more limited, since he doesn’t possess the best grappling. Day is still seeking his first victory in the octagon, and this is his most difficult opponent yet. The style of this fight should create fireworks, but I think Valiev is on another level. Day will have moments, and a striking affair could bring out the best of him, but it’s hard not to like Valiev here. I will sprinkle some lineups with Day, but the clear choice is Valiev to be victorious.
UFC DFS pick: Valiev ($9,300)
Smith vs. Jaynes
Justin Jaynes has become accustomed to accepting short-notice opportunities, and he is stepping up to face Devonte Smith. Jaynes burst onto the scene with his short-notice knockout over Frank Camacho and has proven to be an exciting fighter to watch. Jaynes throws heavy strikes and creates some excellent combinations. Jaynes is predominately a boxer, who has a wrestling background when things get tricky. Smith is looking to rebound from a knockout loss and a serious Achilles injury that’s left him out of the cage. Smith has phenomenal hands, and this matchup should not disappoint. I recommend targeting this fight since someone is getting knocked out. I favor Smith’s technique and think his reach could pose a problem to Jaynes. I am slightly leaning Smith, since Jaynes refuses to utilize his wrestling.
UFC DFS pick: Smith ($9,200)
Rosa vs. Edwards
In our second women’s bout of the evening we have Karol Rosa fighting Joselyne Edwards. Both women enjoy striking, so this should be a high-volume affair. Rosa has thrown at an impressive rate inside the UFC. Edwards will need to pick up the pace if she wants to compete with Rosa’s output. I think Rosa has the more well-rounded game despite Edward’s promise in the division. Rosa can leg kick her opponent, hit her from the outside and mix in some takedowns to win rounds.
UFC DFS pick: Rosa ($8,700)
McCann vs. Procopio
Our first women’s bout of the evening pairs Molly McCann versus Lara Procopio. McCann should have the wrestling advantage in this bout, and she will need to utilize it to solidify rounds. Procopio can win rounds with her high-output striking but needs to prevent the takedowns. I have seen more of McCann in the UFC, so I have more trust in her skillset. I recognize Procopio is a threat to win a close decision with her striking, and I think she is a fine value play. That said, I favor McCann and think she can do enough to win here.
UFC DFS pick: McCann ($8,500)
Zalal vs. Woo Choi
Youssef Zalal is back in the cage once again, facing Seung Woo Choi. Zalal is a high-level prospect who has great striking, great footwork, good fight IQ and good wrestling. Zalal can do it all. Woo Choi is a talented striker, but I think he will struggle in this matchup against Zalal’s footwork. Woo Choi has the power to hurt anyone, but I think Zalal will be too sharp.
UFC DFS pick: Zalal ($9,100)
Osbourne vs. Rivera
The first fight of the night between Ode Osbourne and Jerome Rivera might be essential to your lineups. The reason is both fighters are priced below $8,000 Osbourne is an explosive athlete that we haven’t seen much of in the UFC. Osbourne has decent striking and decent jiu-jitsu, but he has been hyped as something more. Rivera has been underwhelming to say the least, but on the regional scene he was a dominant grappler with great top pressure. Osbourne is an early finisher, whereas Rivera is a grinder. I am smashing exposure to both sides of this fight, but I will side with Rivera to put Osbourne on his back and control him to a victory.
UFC DFS pick: Rivera ($7,500)
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