UFC Vegas 20 is headlined by Rozenstruik vs. Gane, but there are plenty of other fights to break down. This weekly Fight Analysis article will break down and analyze every matchup. Below you’ll find my data-driven analysis for each match as well as a pick to win, which will help us make UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
UFC DFS Picks: Rozenstruik vs. Gane DraftKings + FanDuel
Rozenstruik vs. Gane
In our main event of the evening, Jairzinho Rozenstruik takes on Ciryl Gane. This should be an incredible main event, as two legitimate contenders are battling it out. Gane is an incredible striker with good footwork, elusiveness and precision. He is the more well-rounded mixed martial artist here and can solidify rounds via takedowns. This is not an easy fight against a decorated kickboxer in Rozenstruik, but there are paths to victory. Rozenstruik tends to have low volume, but he makes up for it with devastating knockout power. Heavyweights don’t typically last five rounds, so I will have plenty of exposure to this fight. I favor Gane in the matchup since he has more ways to win, but Rozenstruik is an excellent value play that must be included in your player pool.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Gane ($9,000)
Ankalaev vs. Krylov
In our co-main event of the evening, Magomed Ankalaev takes on Nikita Krylov. I immediately circled this fight when I started my breakdown process, as I think it has GPP potential. Ankalaev is an incredible striker with knockout power and a good wrestling base. Krylov is a well-rounded mixed martial artist himself, but to a lesser degree. Krylov’s easiest path to victory will be via grappling, and we have seen Ankalaev slip up in the past, getting submitted by Paul Craig. We can’t ignore the experienced Krylov as a GPP dart throw. I foresee Ankalaev shutting down the wrestling and picking him apart on the feet, though.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Ankalaev ($9,300)
Bueno Silva vs. De La Rosa
Up next is Mayra Bueno Silva taking on Montana De La Rosa in an exciting women’s flyweight contest. Bueno Silva is a plodding striker who likes to utilize a heavy low-kick and has a decent jiu-jitsu game to rely on. Bueno Silva lacks defensive wrestling, and at times will concede the takedown, to start working towards a submission finish. De La Rosa has improved in the UFC over the years, spending a lot of time developing her boxing to complement her strong grappling. I am not too impressed with Bueno Silva, and I think this could be a sneaky spot for De La Rosa to pick up a win. I think De La Rosa can match her opponent on the feet and definitely has the stronger wrestling of the two. The only worry in this matchup is getting too comfortable on the mat and getting caught in a submission. I will side with De La Rosa in the matchup.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: De La Rosa ($7,800)
Munhoz vs. Rivera
In a rematch, Jimmie Rivera teaks on Pedro Munhoz. I am excited about this bout because both gentleman always bring it. The first fight was a back-and-forth contest on the feet, with Rivera slightly edging out Munhoz on the scorecards. Rivera is known for going the distance and excels at winning rounds. Munhoz is the far better finisher of the two, securing multiple knockouts and submissions in the UFC. After re-watching the first encounter, I was impressed with both parties. Both fighters were rocked several times in the fight and had to overcome some adversity. Rivera started out hot, picking Munhoz apart with good volume. As the fight hit the second and third round, I noticed Munhoz started to have more success. Rivera seemed to slow down and was rocked several times. Both fighters have improved over the years, but I liked what I saw in the second half of that fight. Munhoz pushed forward with constant aggression and always went for the kill. This won’t be a popular fight to target for DFS, as Rivera tends to go the distance. I will slightly favor Munhoz in an underdog spot, mostly due to durability at this stage of the game.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Munhoz ($7,900)
Hill vs. Yoder
Angela Hill takes on Ashley Yoder in another rematch. Hill is a very active fighter, with high-volume striking. Back in the day she had a grappling deficiency but has since improved. Yoder will look to clinch Hill early and implement takedowns. If Yoder chooses to stand and strike, she will be outclassed. I think this is a sneaky spot for Hill due to the high-volume attack, and potential to rack up total/significant strikes. The only concern I have is the short-notice nature of this bout.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Hill ($9,200)
Hernandez vs. Moises
Next are two lightweights looking to continue their momentum in the lightweight division, Alexander Hernandez and Thiago Moises. Both men are coming off impressive victories, where they showed improved versions of themselves. Hernandez is a well-rounded fighter and has seemed to find the missing link: A high-caliber coach that will take him to the next level (Marc Montoya). In his previous bout, Hernandez discovered his precision, patience and timing. Moises squeaked out a decision against Bobby Green but looked good in the fight. Moises is a well-rounded fighter but specializes in his jiu-jitsu. Both fighters have been inconsistent in the UFC and are tough to trust, but I feel more comfortable recommending Hernandez here. I think this fight is a great one to target, and there is value on the underdog Moises. I foresee Hernandez outpointing Moises on the feet, mixing in some takedowns and looking like a new version of himself.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Hernandez ($8,700)
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Caceres vs. Croom
In an exciting featherweight bout, Alex Caceres faces Kevin Croom. Both men have a wealth of experience, and this should be a good one. Caceres is a karate-based fighter who utilizes evasive movement and counter striking. Croom is a brawler who wastes no time and closes the gap quickly. Croom is the more aggressive of the two but has been chin-checked and submitted plenty of times on the regional scene. The X Factor in this situation is the coach behind Croom, James Krause. Krause has burst onto the scene over the years as one of the most underrated coaches in all of MMA. Krause has developed a system with his fighters that has resulted in overwhelming success. I think Croom has developed under his tutelage, and it showed against Roosevelt Roberts. I think Croom can win this fight as long as he doesn’t get too reckless. A crafty veteran in Caceres could take advantage of a situation like that and is not a fighter to underestimate. I am edging Croom, but I will have exposure to Caceres as well.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Croom ($7,400)
Oliveira vs. Kuramagomedov
Next is a debutant, Ramazan Kuramagomedov, taking on Alex Oliveira. This is a very difficult debut since Oliveira has 18 UFC fights. Kuramagomedov is a talented fighter with good striking and good wrestling, both of which could give Oliveira some issues. Oliveira looks to bully his opponents, but when he is met with resistance, he crumbles at times, mostly due to exhaustion. I truly feel the weigh-in is important here. I want to see whether Oliveira will miss weight once again and what shape both combatants are in. For now, I will side with Kuramagomedov since he won’t be outwrestled, and that’s Oliveira’s best path to victory. I think Kuramagomedov can hurt him on the feet with his varied attacks, defend takedowns and implement takedowns to solidify rounds. Oliveira is a tough fighter to trust at this point in his career and is a cardio liability. This fight screams GPP, and for that reason I will have exposure to both sides while favoring Kuramagomedov.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Kuramagomedov ($8,300)
Mazo vs. Davis
In our first women’s bout of the evening, Sabina Mazo takes on the veteran Alexis Davis. This fight screams 15-minute decision, but I think it’s an interesting fight to target. The veteran Davis, who has fought the who’s who in all of women’s MMA, takes on an up-and-comer Mazo, who has shown promise in the division. This fight comes down to whether Mazo can prevent the takedowns or not. If Mazo keeps this fight on the feet I don’t see how she loses. Davis is a gamer and will look to utilize the clinch to set up her wrestling. I think Davis is a GPP dart throw to consider, due to her experience and grappling skills. This is a changing of the guard, and Mazo is set up to make a name off of Davis. Mazo has high-volume striking and her opponent is tough, which could be a recipe for a sneaky score. I foresee Mazo outclassing Davis to a decisive victory.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Mazo ($8,900)
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Lawrence vs. Cachero
In an exciting bantamweight bout, Ronnie Lawrence takes on Vince Cachero. Lawrence is making his UFC debut, which is always difficult to gauge. On the Contender Series, Lawrence was a machine with relentless takedowns and non-stop action. Cachero debuted against Jamall Emmers and will look to make a better account of himself here with a full camp. In that fight Cachero was taken down five times and outclassed throughout. Cachero is a decent fighter with skills in every department but can find himself defensive in many instances. If Lawrence goes the wrestling route, I think he can have success here against a fighter that struggled to prevent takedowns. It is something to note that Cachero debuted a weight-class higher than his norm, so perhaps that was a big factor. I am siding with the wrestling skills of Lawrence to be the difference in this fight. I believe Lawrence can match Cachero in all aspects of the fight and will look to exploit Cachero’s takedown defense. We are talking about relatively inexperienced fighters here, so an upset would not surprise me.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Lawrence ($8,600)
Jacoby vs. Grishin
Kicking off our exciting night of fights is Dustin Jacoby taking on Maxim Grishin. I am extremely interested in this fight because Jacoby revolutionized his game and turned his fighting career around. Jacoby is a decorated kickboxer who will look to keep this fight on the feet and defend takedowns. Grishin is a well-rounded fighter who had a lot of success outside the UFC. Inside the UFC Grishin has been a slight disappointment and is up against a stiff test here. Grishin can compete on the feet but should look to utilize his wrestling and take the kickboxer where he is least comfortable. I don’t believe Grishin’s grappling is superb by any means, but he does have a path to victory. I think this is a sneaky fight to target and is perfect for GPP’s. I will have exposure to both sides, but I am favoring Jacoby heavily.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Jacoby ($8,500)
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