UFC Vegas 21 may be headlined by Edwards vs. Muhammad, but there are plenty of other great fights to keep an eye on. This weekly Fight Analysis article will break down and analyze every matchup. Below you’ll find my data-driven analysis for each match as well as a pick to win, which will help us make UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
UFC DFS Picks: Edwards vs. Muhammad DraftKings + FanDuel
Edwards vs. Muhammad
In the main event, Leon Edwards finally returns to the cage against short-notice opponent Belal Muhammad. Edwards has been absent from the cage for almost a year and a half, and we will have to see how the layoff affects him here. Edwards is a well-rounded fighter and apart of the upper echelon of the division, and Muhammad is looking to break into the top 10. Muhammad has a lot of momentum on his side, since he has been the more active competitor, and has been dominating his opposition. I’m very intrigued with this matchup, and from a DFS perspective, I don’t view this main event as a lock by any means. Both men possess high-level skills in all facets of the game and could negate each other throughout. Edwards is a very technical striker who could limit Muhammad’s volume, but if there’s any form of ring-rust, Muhammad can take advantage. Muhammad is an excellent underdog to have some exposure to, but I am leaning Edwards in the matchup. I think Edwards will have the better shot selection and can negate the wrestling of Muhammad en route to a decision victory.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Edwards ($9,000)
Cirkunov vs. Spann
In the co-main event of the evening, there is Misha Cirkunov facing Ryan Spann in a light heavyweight clash. For DFS purposes, I strongly suggest smashing exposure to both sides of this fight, as both men have finish rates above 83%. I can openly admit that I have written Cirkunov off in the past, and he has surprised me at times. Cirkunov has a strong ground game and can impose his will when he relies on his grappling. We have seen Cirkunov get cracked on the feet and shell up immediately though. Spann is one of my favorite underdogs on the slate, because I don’t view him as a one-dimensional fighter. Spann puts together excellent combinations on the feet and has a dangerous submission game as well. I am favoring the underdog Spann here and think he has some of the best value on the slate. I feel like getting this fight correct is essential for GPP success.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Spann ($7,900)
Ige vs. Tucker
In an exciting lightweight contest, there is Dan Ige taking on Gavin Tucker. Immediately I view this as a closely contested bout, where both men could have success. Ige has been fighting the more challenging opponents, but Tucker has looked improved in each performance. I believe Tucker offers more upside in this matchup and could pull off the upset. Tucker is the more dynamic striker with a higher finish rate of 77%, but I’ve tempered expectations for this matchup.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Tucker ($7,600)
Martinez vs. Grant
In a surprising bantamweight pairing, there is Jonathan Martinez taking on Davey Grant. I have to be honest this matchup really doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, as Martinez has been the more active fighter, and has been fighting some legitimate competition. This is a significant downgrade in opposition, and despite the heavy price tag, I’m interested in Martinez. Grant is a mediocre fighter within the division, who has sneaky pop but generally relies on his grappling to secure victories. Martinez has become a very dangerous fighter for the division and should have a dominant victory.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Martinez ($9,400)
Nicolau vs. Kape
In a flyweight banger, Matheus Nicolau takes on Manel Kape. This could be a situation where the DFS community were burned by Kape in his debut and won’t want to go back to the well. Let’s preface this by saying Kape had one of the most difficult debut matchups in recent memory and it shouldn’t be held against him. Kape has explosive punches and good wrestling to rely on. This fight against Nicolau isn’t an easy one by any means, but Nicolau has been wobbled in the past. I will have exposure to both sides in this fight, as Nicolau is extremely skilled and could pull off the upset decision, but I am siding with Kape to secure his first UFC victory. I think the explosive combinations and strong wrestling will be too much and Kape will walk away victorious.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Kape ($8,700)
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Anders vs. Stewart
This next bout is an interesting fight between Eryk Anders and Darren Stewart. It’s difficult to trust either man in this fight but I feel like this could be a sneaky fight to target. Anders is a big southpaw for the division who has good boxing and a strong grappling game (that we never see). I think Anders could be even better if he utilized his strengths in specific matchups. Stewart is a well-rounded fighter also but has shown the tendency to get caught in some submissions at times. The inconsistencies of both fighters make this an extremely volatile matchup, but I am favoring the underdog Anders ever so slightly. Split your exposure.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Anders ($7,300)
Hill vs. Yoder
Next there are two combatants meeting once again, Angela Hill and Ashley Yoder. This matchup is extremely simple to breakdown as Hill is a volume striker and Yoder is a wrestler. Hill walked away victorious in the first outing, and I foresee an even better performance this time around. I think Hill should be fighting stiffer competition at this time, and she will show the improvements in her game. If Yoder is able to get Hill to the mat, things could get interesting, but I believe Hill can work back to her feet and continue with her relentless striking. The price tag is heavy, and this fight will probably go the distance, but I will have exposure to Hill regardless.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Hill ($9,400)
Jourdain vs. Rojo
Next there is another fighter on our don’t-trust list, Charles Jourdain taking on Marcelo Rojo. We have been burned by Jourdain in the past and this will be another case of recency bias. Jourdain is a fighter with an incredible finish rate of 100%, but tread carefully because he lacks defensive wrestling. Rojo is a dangerous opponent but is accepting this fight on short notice and bumping up a weight class. Rojo has strong striking and sneaky jiu-jitsu, so I will be targeting him as a punt play. I do favor Jourdain here, despite my lack of trust for him. We’ve seen Rojo get put in some really bad spots throughout his regional career, and despite his toughness, I think Jourdain can take advantage of it.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Jourdain ($9,100)
Yahya vs. Rodriguez
Next there is a bantamweight staple, Rani Yahya, taking on Ray Rodriguez. If you don’t know who Yahya is, he has some of the most incredible jiu-jitsu displayed across the WEC and the UFC. Yahya will look for the takedown immediately, and despite being a jiu-jitsu fighter, has decent takedowns. We saw Rodriguez get submitted via guillotine against Brian Kelleher and he will need to do everything in his power to keep the fight on the feet. Throughout Yahya’s career, few have been able stifle his takedowns and capitalize on his questionable cardio. A third round upset for Rodriguez is not out of the question, but he will have to overcome a lot early. I strongly favor Yahya but will sprinkle Rodriguez in a few lineups because stranger things have happened in the sport of MMA.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Yahya ($9,200)
Haqparast vs. Garcia
In another short-notice fight, there is Nasrat Haqparast facing Rafa Garcia. This fight could have some optimal implications as both men bring it, and this matchup should be fireworks. Garcia is faced with a very difficult task to debut against Haqparast, but he is an undefeated well-rounded fighter. I was pleasantly surprised with Garcia’s fight footage, as he displayed great toughness, good striking and good wrestling. It’s hard to imagine a debuting fighter steamrolling Haqparast, but if Garcia has a grappling based game-plan, he has a chance. We have seen Haqparast get controlled on the mat at times and knocked out once against Drew Dober. I favor Haqparast’s speed, accuracy and experience in the octagon despite the dangerous opponent in Garcia though. I definitely recommend having exposure to Garcia, as he is an undefeated fighter for a reason, and could surprise us all in his debut.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Haqparast ($9,400)
Casey vs. Aldrich
In a flyweight contest, there is J.J. Aldrich taking on Cortney Casey. From a DFS perspective this isn’t my favorite fight, but I do recognize paths to victory for both women. Aldrich should look to maintain distance and utilize her striking from the outside. Casey should implement a pressure based gameplan, with control against the cage and clinch fighting. Casey’s strength could be evident in this matchup, as Aldrich has been controlled often and taken down in several fights. I don’t trust either fighter for DFS purposes, but I think Casey offers more upside and at a significant discount, I’m willing to chase it.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Casey ($7,700)
Frey vs. De Paula
The UFC has paired WMMA veteran Jinh Yu Frey against DWCS Gloria De Paula. Let me preface this by saying Frey has been the ultimate letdown in the UFC, as she was a decorated Atomweight Champion in Invicta FC. Frey has had to bump up a weight class in order to compete in the UFC, and she is winless in two attempts. The main issue surrounding Frey is her lack of volume and aggression in her fights, despite her technical striking. De Paula is a fighter who can push the pace and out volume Frey in this contest. De Paula is a very green fighter who has poor takedown defense, but good striking. Perhaps Frey can take advantage of the young opponent, but it’s impossible to trust her. It’s important to recognize the leverage Frey carries on this slate, as everyone has written Frey off and her job is on the line. I don’t blame the doubt, and I will sprinkle some shares of Frey, but still lean towards a De Paula victory.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: De Paula ($8,800)
Witt vs. Semelsberger
Kicking off UFC Vegas 21, there is a banger between Jason Witt and Matthew Semelsberger. Just like the Co-main event of the evening, I will be smashing exposure to both sides of this fight. Semelsberger had a good debut against a weak opponent, displaying his impressive power and talented striking. Witt made a better account of himself with a full camp against Cole Williams, displaying his strong grappling. I can see paths to victory for both men as Witt is often rocked in his fights and is a defensive liability on the feet. Semelsberger hasn’t been tested at the UFC level in the grappling exchanges and started to fatigue as his debut progressed. It’s a slight lean towards Witt with the advantage in the grappling department, but a Semelsberger knockout wouldn’t surprise me. Split your exposure.
UFC DFS pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Witt ($7,800)
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