UFC Vegas 26 may be headlined by Marina Rodriguez vs. Michelle Waterson, but there are plenty of others to keep an eye on. This weekly Fight Analysis article will break down and analyze every matchup on the card. Below, you’ll find my data-driven analysis for each match and a pick to win; this info, as well as using Awesemo’s expert MMA DFS projections, Top Fighters Tool and UFC DFS ownership projections will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
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UFC Vegas 26: Rodriguez vs. Waterson MMA Picks
Rodriguez vs. Waterson
This main event between Rodriguez and Waterson should be exciting, but it was strange awaiting confirmation for this main event. Typically main events are announced far in advance, but the UFC was left scrambling with cancellations and arranged Marina Rodriguez against Michelle Waterson. In her last performance, Rodriguez shocked the world and knocked out the highly regarded prospect Amanda Ribas. Rodriguez is a talented striker within the division but has a glaring hole in her grappling. I recognize the weakness, and think Waterson will clearly test her in that area. Due to Waterson’s versatility and desire to incorporate takedowns, she is in play at her price range to pull the upset. Despite being regarded as a “striker”, I think Waterson could struggle on the feet. I leaning towards Rodriguez in the matchup, but I don’t hate either play. Rodriguez should win most exchanges and punishing Waterson on her failed takedown attempts.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Rodriguez ($9,200)
Cerrone vs. Morono
The co-main event is an interesting one between UFC Hall of Famer Donald Cerrone and Alex Morono. Initially Cerrone was scheduled to face former teammate Diego Sanchez, but due to unforeseen circumstances the bout was scrapped and Sanchez was cut from the promotion. Talk about an odd week. In the matchup against Sanchez, I really liked Cerrone and thought he would finally right the ship and pick up a win after five unsuccessful attempts. Unfortunately we won’t be able to witness the bad blood between Sanchez and Cerrone, but Morono willingly accepted the fight, and will attempt to make a name off of Cerrone. Cerrone is known for his incredible striking over the years, combined with a sneaky ground game. Over the years we have seen Cowboy struggle when fighters press him and make him fight going backwards. That is my concern in this fight with Morono. If Morono walks down Cerrone and throws aggressive combinations, we could be looking at an upset at $7800. If Cowboy initiates the forward pressure and mixes in takedowns, I think he can easily outclass Morono. All in all it’s tough to trust either fighter as Cerrone is winless in five attempts, and Morono was just outclassed by Anthony Pettis. Cerrone should win some exchanges and incorporating takedowns to solidify rounds. I will lean towards Cerrone but split your exposure for this GPP fight.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Cerrone ($8,400)
Magny vs. Neal
Next is an interesting welterweight fight between Neil Magny and Geoff Neal. Both men are looking to rebound from defeats and this could be a sneaky fight to prioritize. We have seen Magny give opponent’s fits with his length and takedowns, but Neal is a legitimate prospect in the division. I will give the striking and power advantage to Neal in this matchup, making him much more live for a finish. I think the salary is justified, given his power and finishing ability. On the flip side, Magny is a great value if he can stifle Neal’s offense and land some takedowns. He has been somewhat of a decision machine, but at $7200 that would work just fine. I am picking Neal to walk away with a dominant victory, but Magny needs to be in your underdog pool.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Neal ($9,000)
Greene vs. De Lima
The UFC is clearly messing with us by pairing these two unreliable athletes against each other. Unfortunately for us, we will probably have to roster someone in this fight, as both men have questionable gas tanks and are known for being consistently inconsistent. Maurice Greene is a mammoth of a human at 6-foot-7 and an 80-inch reach, but his striking defense is very poor. De Lima is the more powerful striker in this matchup, but his cardio is horrendous. This fight will feature several swings of momentum, and hopefully you have the correct combatant. I am backing De Lima to win the fight, but I’m fearful of a submission due to exhaustion. Close your eyes and split exposure. I’m siding with De Lima.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: De Lima ($9,100)
Ferreira vs. Gillespie
Looking to return from a two-year hiatus we have Gregor Gillespie taking on Diego Ferreira. This will be an exciting fight as we have a jiu-jitsu specialist in Ferreira looking to spoil the return of the highly accredited wrestler in Gillespie. This fight all comes down to the takedown defense of Ferreira and how Gillespie looks after the layoff. Obviously I favor Gillespie’s strong wrestling pedigree, but I am fearful of him getting swept, reversed, or threatened with submissions. Gillespie has been DraftKings gold in the UFC, but this is a very difficult fight for him. I slightly favor the work rate, takedowns and control time of Gillespie in the matchup, but I think Ferreira is one of the most talented underdogs on the card. Have exposure to both, but just realize if you avoid Gillespie, you could be without a massive total.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Gillespie ($8,900)
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Ribas vs. Hill
Next we have an excellent matchup between Amanda Ribas and Angela Hill. It wasn’t long ago that Ribas was being considered as the next big thing and one of the brightest WMMA prospects in the UFC. Unfortunately for Ribas she was knocked out in her last bout and is looking to return against a talented striker in Hill. Throughout Hill’s career she has been susceptible to strong grapplers, and the Ribas camp should be looking to test her in that area. If Ribas sticks to closing the distance and incorporating takedowns, she could have a dominant performance and right the ship. If she hesitates and is stuck on the outside, Hill could out-strike her consistently. It takes a lot to bounce back from a knockout defeat, not to mention cut an excessive amount of weight and fight another talented striker in Hill. Ribas’ stock will still be high and her opponent could go overlooked. I like the underdog Hill more than the public, and believe she can walk away victorious with her volume. Due to Hill’s past, you can’t ignore Ribas’ grappling path to victory though.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Hill ($7,400)
Rothwell vs. Lins
In an ugly heavyweight bout we have Ben Rothwell taking on Philipe Lins. When Lins won the PFL tournament and walked away with $1 million, there were high hopes for his UFC career. Lins has not started his UFC career well and has suffered two losses to Andrei Arlovski and Tanner Boser. In both fights Lins was outclassed and beaten to the punch, which doesn’t inspire confidence in this difficult matchup. I am hesitant to play Lins against the strangest heavyweight in existence, especially when he hasn’t shown the ability to compete at this level. Rothwell is a weird fighter to watch who relies on awkward movement, short blitzes and lethargic pauses against the cage. I will back the bigger and more experienced veteran Rothwell, who might be levels above Lins even at this stage of his career.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Rothwell ($8,200)
Hawes vs. Daukaus
Up next is a GPP priority between Phil Hawes and Kyle Daukaus. I have significant interest in this matchup and think both fighters are fantastic plays. Hawes is an exceptional athlete with good power and strong wrestling. Daukaus is solid in all areas and has next level toughness. From a skillset standpoint I favor Hawes versatility and power to separate himself from the pack, but I recognize his untrustworthy cardio. Hawes’ cardio is exactly why Daukaus needs to be included in your player pool, as he will fight from bell to bell, shown the ability to deal with adversity and come back in impressive fashion. With all of that being said I think Hawes is an excellent underdog, and I am favoring him in the matchup. The power, strength and wrestling are too hard to ignore, and I’m willing to lean in his direction.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Hawes ($7,900)
Trizano vs. Klein
Our most expensive fighter on the slate Ludovit Klein takes on Mike Trizano. Few fighters have had more impressive debuts in the UFC than Klein, who absolutely starched his opponent in emphatic fashion. I’m excited to see Klein with a full camp and against another tough UFC caliber opponent. Trizano is looking to return following a two-year hiatus, and these absences always leave me scratching my head. Perhaps it was to refine his craft or heal some injuries, but inactive fighters are the biggest X-factors on the card. Be careful with a fight like this, as Trizano is a talented underdog against a relatively untested Klein in the UFC. Paying off that $9400 will be a difficult task, but I will favor Klein’s high level striking and move to Sanford MMA.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Klein ($9,400)
Benoit vs. Adashev
This fight between Ryan Benoit and Zarrukh Adashev is a pairing between two untrustworthy fighters in the flyweight division. Typically this division is known for action packed fights with low finishes, but Benoit isn’t your typical flyweight. He possesses some strong power and has been working diligently on his ground game. Adashev is a striker from Glory with some MMA experience but his level of competition isn’t near Benoit’s level. For the safe players out there I believe Benoit is a solid play and will be very popular.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Benoit ($8,700)
Nchukwi vs. Park
In a middleweight matchup, Tafon Nchukwi takes on Jun Yong Park. I am significantly interested in this fight from a DFS perspective, and think this fight could produce some sneaky totals. A lot of people are high on Nchukwi’s promise within the division, and I’m right there. He’s a very talented striker with good volume and solid cardio for the division but I still have questions. This is a perfect fight because Park will test him in all areas of the fight and will try to incorporate takedowns. After this fight we will have a better idea of Nchukwi. Is he a one-dimensional fighter or will he be able to compete against some higher ranked opponents? I will be splitting exposure with this bout, but I am interested in Park. I think his well-rounded game and ability to dictate where the fight takes place could pay dividends in this matchup.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Park ($7,700)
Aguilera vs. Harris
Kicking off UFC Vegas 26 is Christian Aguilera and Carlston Harris. This fight screams GPP and will likely be a part of the optimal lineup. Aguilera is a powerful striker with deficiencies in the grappling department. Harris is making his UFC debut and has displayed strong grappling in some of his biggest victories. Not often will I recommend a UFC debutant, but I am favoring Harris to impose his will in this matchup, possibly test the chin, and expose the grappling hole of Aguilera’s game. Aguilera has shown some exceptional power and is a fantastic punt play.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Harris ($8,600)
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