After last week’s historic UFC 263 card, MMA action returns with UFC Vegas 29: Korean Zombie vs. Ige. This weekly Fight Analysis article will analyze every matchup on the card. Below, you’ll find data-driven analysis and MMA DFS strategy for each matchup and a pick to win. This, along with Awesemo’s MMA DFS projections, Top Fighters Tool, and UFC DFS ownership projections will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
UFC Vegas 29: Korean Zombie vs. Ige MMA DFS Picks
Korean Zombie vs. Ige
After a series of unforgettable fights on last week’s UFC 263 card, June 19th’s card will be headlined by Chan Sung Jung, aka “The Korean Zombie,” and Dan Ige. A true striker’s paradise, this fight looks unlikely to disappoint. Entering this fight at age 34, Korean Zombie will look to rebound from his most recent loss to Brian Ortega. One of the division’s most aggressive and lethal strikers, Jung lands 4.15 significant strikes per minute. With constant forward pressure, Korean Zombie is known for his willingness to take damage in order to find his shots. This aggression shows up not only in his output, but also the sheer number of knockout victories on the resume. Jung has six knockouts and eight submissions across his 16 professional fights. The Korean Zombie has never won a fight by decision at the UFC level and only two of his 11 UFC fights went the distance. On the mat, Jung actually possesses sneaky jiu-jitsu, despite his reluctance to shoot takedowns. He averages on 0.62 per bout, but Ige’s 59% takedown defense creates another potential avenue of success for Zombie. On the other side, Ige has also shown a willingness to stand and trade. Slightly less aggressive than Zombie, Ige lands 3.95 significant strikes per minute. More aggressive as a grappler, Ige averages 1.68 takedowns per bout, but has just 27% accuracy. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Ige had landed at least one takedown in every fight prior to his two most recent bouts. In his 2020 loss to Calvin Kattar, Ige went 0-9 on takedown attempts. In his next fight, Ige knocked out Gavin Tucker in 22 seconds and simply didn’t need to use his ground game. Jung has 75% takedown defense, making this a challenge for Ige. Against Ortega, Jung successfully defended seven of ten takedown attempts. More impressively, Ortega managed just 57 seconds of control time, struggling to actually keep Jung on the mat. While Ige averages more takedowns, the advantage on the mat isn’t clear. Zombie has never been submitted but has the eight victories by submission himself. From a DFS perspective, this is a must-roster fight. The odds sit slightly in Ige’s favor at -125. Also the cheaper fighter, Ige projects to carry sizable ownership. However, Korean Zombie throws with more volume, giving him a path to an enormous DFS score. With a slick ground game and overall aggression on his side, Chan Sung Jung is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Korean Zombie ($8,200)
Oleinik vs. Spivak
A battle between heavyweight contenders, savvy veteran Aleksei Oleinik will take on the up-and-comer in Sergey Spivak. Despite turning 44 in a month, Oleinik continues to fight with shocking frequency. With four fights since the start of 2020, Oleinik dropped his two most recent fights against Derrick Lewis and Chris Daukaus. One of the division’s premier submission threats, Oleinik has 46 submissions on the professional record. He absorbs more strikes than he inflicts, but Oleinik’s game focuses on his jiu-jitsu. Oleinik will aggressively attack submissions, averaging 2.4 submission attempts per bout. However, finding a path to the ground could be troublesome against Spivak. Spivak has 75% takedown defense and has only been taken down twice in five fights. Both occurred against Marcin Tybura. On the feet, he has the striking advantage. Spivak lands 3.58 significant strikes per minute. Oleinik only possesses 44% striking defense, giving Spivak the advantage on the feet. Oleinik’s two most recent losses both resulted in knockout, again giving Spivak an edge. As for wrestling, Spivak averages 3.70 per match. While Oleinik has just 33% takedown defense, he often welcomes fights to the mat. With Oleinik’s dangerous submission skills, keeping this standing looks like the best path to victory for Spivak. Neither of these fighters let many bouts get to a decision, making this a solid target for GPP’s. At $9,200, Spivak is the second most expensive fighter on the slate. However, at -230 and -150 to win inside the distance, Spivak is a solid GPP target. On the other side, Oleinik’s +250 prop to win inside the distance suggests a strong chance for a finish in the event of an upset. Oleinik’s path to victory is his submission skills. Still, with two fighters of different career trajectories, Spivak gets the win here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Spivak ($9,200)
Get your DraftKings and FanDuel UFC DFS lineups ready by checking out Jason Floyd and Pete “The Heat” Rogers break down the UFC Vegas 29: Korean Zombie vs. Ige card in our Awesemo MMA DFS Strategy Show.
Vera vs. Grant
An interesting bantamweight bout, Marlon Vera takes on Davey Grant in a rematch from 2016. Ranked 15th among the bantamweights, Vera lost the original bout to Grant via unanimous decision. Grant out-struck Vera 72-23, with each landing a takedown. Since that bout, both fighters have found themselves on different fight trajectories. Recently, Vera knocked off the undefeated Sean O’Malley after losing a questionable decision to Song Yadong. In his most recent fight, he lost a one-sided decision to Jose Aldo. A well-rounded mixed martial artist overall, Vera actually landed 46 strikes to Aldo’s 44. However, Vera absorbs more strikes than he inflicts throughout his career. Vera throws a variety of strikes, including a lethal leg kick that debilitated O’Malley in their bout. He also has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He only averages 0.78 takedowns per bout, but he threatens 1.1 submission attempts per match. His 37% takedown accuracy could work against Grant, who has 66% takedown defense. Entering this bout on a three-fight winning streak, Grant knocked off Jonathan Martinez earlier this year. From a striking perspective, Grant averages 3.93 significant strikes per minute. He also likes to shoot takedowns, averaging 2.30 per bout. Grant has eight wins by submission himself, but Vera jiu-jitsu is a formidable weapon. Grant’s four losses all came via submission, including his three at the UFC level. One of the bigger favorites on the card, Vera’s $9,100 price tag makes sense. Overall, this is one of the more aggressive fights on the card. It also sits at +100 to go the distance, making a finish fairly likely. The official pick will be Marlon Vera, putting the series at 1-1 between these fights.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Vera ($9,100)
Erosa vs. Choi
Two fighters on winning streaks, Julian Erosa takes on Seung-Woo Choi in the men’s featherweight division. After starting his UFC career 2-4, Erosa has now rattled off three straight wins following a brief release from the UFC. Called up on short notice due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Erosa has now defeated Sean Woodson and Nate Landwehr in his third stint in the UFC. A veteran of 33 professional fights, Erosa’s bouts rarely make it to a decision. Erosa has 11 victories by knockout and another 11 by submission. Recklessly aggressive as unorthodox as they come, Erosa lands 5.07 significant strikes per minute to his 5.72 absorbed. He also averages 1.32 takedowns per bout, landing three in his last two fights. Now training out of Xtreme Couture and 10th Planet Las Vegas, Erosa continues to surround himself with solid training partners. On the other side, Choi also has a two-fight winning streak at the UFC level. After missing all of 2020, Choi picked up where he left off with a decision win over Youssef Zalal. Choi has the inferior strength of schedule, but he is an accomplished Muay Thai striker. Choi lands 3.17 strikes per minute, but his 41% accuracy leaves a lot to be desired. Choi has also been taken down multiple times in three of his UFC fights. While Choi is the more technical striker, takedowns provide a path to winning rounds Erosa. The challenge will be getting Choi down and keeping him down. Choi still possesses 66% takedown defense over his four-fight UFC career. From a DFS perspective, this is another solid fight to target. At -150, Choi is one of the better favorites to target. Meanwhile, Erosa Also looks relatively underpriced considering his volume and +125 odds of winning here. For an official pick, Choi relies on his striking and takedown defense to get the job done here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Choi ($8,600)
Turman vs. Silva
The second fight on the main card, Wellington Turman draws UFC newcomer Bruno Silva in a heated middleweight matchup. Now 1-2 in the UFC, Turman dropped his most recent fight to Andrew Sanchez. Since then, Turman has dropped out of multiple fights after contracting Covid-19 and pneumonia in February. Known primarily for his grappling, Turman has seven of his 16 professional wins by submission. From a striking standpoint, Turman possesses a significant negative striking ratio. He lands only 2.75 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.71. His 45% striking defense also leaves him open to big shots, evidenced by his knockout loss in his most recent fight. However, Turman has a significant advantage on the mat. Turman averages 2.63 takedowns on average, despite his 35% takedown accuracy. Silva has yet to fight at the UFC level, but he has five losses by submission on the resume. Silva enters this debut fight fresh off a two-year USADA suspension. Silva is known primarily for his striking, with 16 of 19 wins coming by knockout. Already 31 years old, Silva is no rookie to the fight game. Silva possesses the clear advantage on the feet, which looks dangerous for Turman coming off a knockout loss. If Silva can defend Turman’s takedowns, this is his fight to lose. The one additional wildcard will be Silva’s long absence. Does two years away from the Octagon affect his cardio or fight IQ. As the -130 favorite, Silva looks like one of the more overpriced fighters on his card at $8,800. However, this fight is +135 to go to a decision, keeping Silva in play. At $7,400, Turman actually looks like one of the more attractive underdogs on the slate. He is +110 in the fight and +260 for a finish. Silva is the official pick, but Turman has sneaky upside in DFS.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Silva ($8,800)
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Brown vs. Lima
Kicking off the main card, Matt Brown faces Dhiego Lima. Brown enters this fight with 40 fights to his name. Brown has also dropped two straight fights to Miguel Baeza and Carlos Condit. Brown isn’t the most aggressive striker, landing 3.69 significant strikes per minute with 54% accuracy. However, Lima absorbs more strikes than he inflicts overall, creating an immediate path for Brown. Slightly more aggressive as a grappler, Brown lands 1.56 takedowns on average against Lima’s 1.38. Still, Brown only has six of 22 wins coming via submission. On the other side, Lima enters this fight at a spry 32 years of age. Lima lost his most recent fight to Belal Muhammad, but previously held a three-fight winning streak. Lima is 4-6 overall in his UFC career and now in his second stint within the promotion. A more aggressive striker than Brown, Lima’s horrific 38% striking accuracy limits him to just 3.14 significant strikes landed per bout. While Brown has the striking advantage, his durability has declined with age. Citing concussions in the past, a knockout loss is a legitimate possibility for Brown. Lima has four wins each by knockout and submission making him a fairly well rounded fighter. On the mat, Brown has also been submitted ten times, creating an avenue for Lima to work his jiu-jitsu. For DFS purposes, this fight looks middle overall. Lima sits at $9,000 but is a -175 favorite. Slightly more aggressive than Brown, Lima likely makes a contrarian spend-up option. Lima’s +260 finish prop is the worst among fighters priced at or above $9k. Likewise, Brown’s output and finishing potential make him an underwhelming choice among the underdogs. An overall contrarian fight, Lima gets the win over savvy veteran Matt Brown here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Lima ($9,000)
Camur vs. Negumereanu
The featured prelim, Aleksa Camur takes on Nicolae Negumereanu in the light heavyweight division. Fresh off his first career loss at the hands of William Knight, Camur will look to rebound here. Known as Stipe Miocic’s training partner, Camur’s best asset is his striking. Camur has five of six career wins by knockout. He also lands 3.94 significant strikes per minute with 54% accuracy. At first glance, this should give him a solid edge against Negumereanu’s 18% striking defense. However, Nugumereanu has just one UFC fight on his profile, which he took on short notice. With a 9-1 overall record, that short notice loss to Saparbek Safarov happens to be the only loss of Negumereanu’s career. Not only was it his first loss, but it was the first time he ever fought into the third round. With the fight occurring in March of 2019, Negumereanu hasn’t fought since. Notably, Negumereanu hasn’t fought the best competition on the regional scene either. The combined win/loss record of his opponents sits at 37-81. Negumereanu has six wins by knockout and three by submission. Neither fighter has really attempted takedowns at the UFC level, but neither defends them very well either. Camur has 20% takedown defense, while Negumereanu has 40%. On the regional scene Negumereanu has landed numerous takedowns, making this a potential avenue for success against Camur. Ultimately, at -240, Camur has the best chance of winning on the entire card. Negumereanu has shown enough aggression for Camur to score well in a victory, despite his $9,300 price tag. However, this being a relatively low level light heavyweight fight, the underdog cannot be counted out. Camur is the official pick, with the superior striking and level of competition to date.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Camur ($9,300)
Murata vs. Jandiroba
Heading to the women’s strawweight division, Kanako Murata takes on Virna Jandiroba. Only one fight into her UFC career, Murata defeated Randa Markos in November of 2020. Murata’s background comes in Judo and wrestling. She displayed her wrestling prowess immediately in her first fight against Markos. Murata landed four takedowns on nine attempts, while threatening submissions at various points. Even while controlling Markos for over nine minutes, Murata did very little as a striker. She landed just 29 significant strikes all match. While her wrestling can help swing rounds, taking down Jandiroba is a dangerous proposition. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Jandiroba earned 13 of her 16 wins via submission. She enters this fight coming off a loss to Mackenzie Dern, but she submitted her two prior opponents. Jandiroba somewhat struggles from a striking perspective. She lands 2.39 significant strikes to her 3.08 significant strikes absorbed. This negative ratio is inflated by her most recent defeat against Dern, where Dern out-struck Jandiroba 82-63. However, Jandiroba is hyper aggressive on the mat. She averages 3.16 takedowns per bout with 53% accuracy, notching at least one takedown in every UFC bout. She also threatens 2.0 submissions per match. Murata has never faced a takedown at the UFC level, but Jandiroba’s credentials on the mat make her a scary opponent here. Outside of the UFC, Jandiroba has victories over Amanda Nunes in pure grappling matches. While both women have advantages, Jandiroba can continue to fall back on her elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills. A -140 favorite at $8,400, Jandiroba has the same implied win percentage as $8,800 Bruno Silva and a better implied win percentage than $8,700 Josh Parisian. +220 to finish the fight, she deserves to be one of the more popular fighters for DFS. Conversely, Murata looks a bit expensive at $7,800, when cheaper fighters provide the same odds of winning. Positively, this looks like one of the more attractive scoring environments, with both women focused on grappling. Jandiroba is the official pick and the superior price-adjusted DFS play.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Jandiroba ($8,400)
Williams vs. Semelsberger
Going to the welterweight division, Khaos Williams takes on Matthew Semelsberger in a clash of styles. Primarily known for his striking, Williams enters this fight with a 2-1 record in the UFC. After starting 2-0, he dropped his most recent bout to Michel Pereira. An aggressive power puncher, Williams lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute. Like Williams, Semelsberger also tends to fight with volume. He absorbs 5.31 strikes per minute with 56% striking defense. This aggression could get Semelsberger in trouble against such lethal hands. Williams finished six of his 11 wins via knockout. This includes each of his first two UFC fights. Williams has only one takedown attempt in three fights, which he missed. On the other side, Semelsberger enters this bout on a two-fight winning streak. Semelsberger has wins over Jason Witt and Carlton Minus, making him a tough evaluation. Unlike Williams, Semelsberger fought talent on the fringes of the UFC roster. Still, Semelsberger showed a willingness to throw down. He lands 7.93 significant strikes per minute, while averaging 1.97 takedowns per bout. Williams has faced tougher competition, but his 44% striking defense still leaves him open to strikes from opponents. Semelsberger also looks to have a wrestling advantage. Semelsberger landed a pair of takedowns in his first fight against Minus, before knocking out Witt in just 16 seconds. Williams has only faced two takedown attempts in his career, but he failed to defend either. For DFS, this looks like a can’t miss fight. Appropriately priced at $8,900, Williams +115 finish prop makes his volume even more attractive. On the other side, Semelsberger’s crazy pace also makes him likely to score well in a victory. Just +130 to win, Semelsberger deserves consideration here. Also possessing legitimate advantages over Williams, Semelsberger will be the official pick as the underdog.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Semelsberger ($7,300)
Parisian vs. Martinez
A low-level heavyweight fight, Josh Parisian will face Roque Martinez on the fight night prelims. After two knockout wins on Dana White’s Contender Series, Parisian finally punched his ticket to the UFC. In his debut performance, Parisian lost to Parker Porter via unanimous decision. An extremely high output fighter, Parisian lost the striking battle 114 to 126. Evidenced by his UFC debut, Parisian’s best asset is his striking. On average, he lands 7.46 significant strikes per minute. Like many heavyweights, he possesses legitimate power, with ten of his 13 wins also coming via knockout. Parisian should have the striking advantage here as well. From a size perspective, he stands six inches taller than Martinez with a seven-inch reach advantage. He also throws with more volume and his quickness often allows him to out-maneuver other heavyweights. Improving matters further, Martinez absorbs 4.68 significant strikes per minute, which is almost double the amount he inflicts. On the other side, Martinez enters his third UFC fight after dropping his first two to Don’Tale Mayes and Alexandr Romanov. Also known for his striking, Martinez enters this bout with eight of 15 wins coming via knockout. On top of his negative striking ratio, Martinez also has 16% takedown defense. While Parisian hasn’t shown much of a ground game, this could be another avenue to winning rounds. Martinez has a few notable wins on the regional scene, but most are now in the distant past. While Parisian has numerous theoretical advantages, this is a low level heavyweight fight. For that reason, Parisian looks particularly expensive at $8,700. Just -140 to win this fight, only his volume keeps him in play. As for Martinez, his +115 odds of winning the fight make him a better underdog at $7,500. This fight is +130 to end in a decision. Between the volume and a chance for a finish, this is a solid fight to target for DFS. Parisian gets his first official UFC win here over the undersized Martinez.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Parisian ($8,700)
Silva vs. Glenn
The second fight of the prelims, Joaquim Silva takes on Ricky Glenn in the lightweight division. Silva enters this fight after taking nearly two years off. While he has a 4-2 record at the UFC level, Silva dropped his most recent bout against Nasrat Haqparast. Known primarily for his striking, Silva lands 3.92 significant strikes per minute. Silva is actually far more aggressive than this number indicates because of his poor 37% striking accuracy. Glenn absorbs 4.29 significant strikes per minute with 53% defense, making this a potential advantage for Silva. However, Glenn throws with more volume overall and looks like the more technical striker here. On the mat Silva has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but most of his wins come via knockout. He has also struggled with takedowns in the past. He averages 0.24 takedowns with 50% accuracy. Glenn’s wide base and 66% takedown defense should be enough to stop Silva here. On the other side, Glenn also enters this bout after significant time away from the cage. Glenn’s last fight came in November of 2018 in a loss to Kevin Aguilar. This put Glenn’s record at an even 3-3 in the UFC. In his time off, Glenn had to take time away from training after undergoing hip surgery. Also citing difficult weight cuts, this will be Glenn’s first fight in the lightweight division. Like Silva, Glenn is known primarily for his striking. Glenn lands 4.31 significant strikes per minute, with poor 42% accuracy. Noted in the efficiency stats, Glenn looks like the faster, more technical striker overall. Glenn has also unsuccessfully shot takedowns through most of his career. With 16% accuracy, Glenn has actually only landed takedowns against Gavin Tucker in the UFC. Silva possesses 64% takedown defense and can always fall back on his black belt. With both fighters coming off an extended absence, this is a tough evaluation for DFS. Bookmakers peg Silva as the -130 favorite, but this fight is -215 to get to a decision. With neither fighter displaying elite volume in the past, this looks like a fight to potentially avoid outside of large field tournaments. The official pick will be underdog Ricky Glenn, making his lightweight debut.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Glenn ($7,900)
O’Neill vs. Procopio
CaseyO’Neill takes on Lara Procopio in the women’s flyweight division. The undefeated O’Neill enters this fight fresh off a win against Shana Dobson earlier this year. Previously fighting out of Tiger Muay Thai, O’Neill has recently been training at Xtreme Couture. O’Neill has a strong wrestling base and has shown no problem taking opponents down. She landed four takedowns against Dobson before knocking her out with ground-and-pound strikes in the second round. From a standup position, O’Neill continues to develop despite her time at Tiger Muay Thai. She out-struck Dobson 49-16 with 31 of those strikes coming on the ground. She now has two knockouts and one submission in six career wins. Saturday, she draws a step up in competition against 25-year old Procopio. Procopio enters her third UFC fight after losing a close split decision to Karol Rosa, followed by a win over Molly McCann. Her record now sits at 7-1 overall, with one victory by knockout and two by submission. A well-rounded fighter, Procopio lands 6.70 significant strikes per minute with 57% accuracy. Procopio is also a Brazilian jiu-jitsu blackbelt, potentially giving her the edge on the mat. She lands 3.50 takedowns on average, including seven against McCann. O’Neill also loves to bring fights to the mat, but she is a purple belt in jiu-jitsu. Overall, both fighters are extremely aggressive from a standing position and on the mat. O’Neill averages 6.91 takedowns to Procopio’s 3.50. The scrambles will be important here, but Procopio has the edge in experience and jiu-jitsu. This fight is -245 to get to a decision, but both fighters are aggressive enough to score well. Procopio looks like one of the better values on the slate at $8,500. Her -155 odds of winning this fight are superior to fighters like Seung-Woo Choi, Bruno Silva, and Josh Parisian. As for O’Neill, she looks a bit expensive at $7,700. However, her wrestling base gives her a path to a strong score in a victory. The official pick is Procopio in the most likely fight to get to a decision on the card.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Procopio ($8,500)
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