After last week’s historic exciting card, MMA action returns with UFC Vegas 30: Gane vs. Volkov. This weekly Fight Analysis article will analyze every matchup on the card. Below, you’ll find data-driven analysis for each matchup and a pick to win. This, along with Awesemo’s UFC DFS ownership, Top Fighters Tool and UFC DFS ownership projections, will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA fight night lineups.
UFC Vegas 30: Gane vs. Volkov MMA DFS Picks
Gane vs. Volkov
Headlining UFC Vegas 30, Cyril Gane takes on Alexander Volkov in the heavyweight division. With both fighters ranked firmly in the top five, a victory could solidify a future title shot against current champion Francis Ngannou. Gane enters this fight with a perfect 8-0 professional record in mixed martial arts after a successful Muay Thai career. Gane continues to develop his well-rounded game. Former training partner of Ngannou, Gane has now rattled off five straight victories in the UFC with recent wins over Junior Dos Santos and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Gane has some of the division’s most lethal striking. He lands 5.04 significant strikes for every 1.85 absorbed. This ratio is also reflected in his 69% striking defense. However, Gane’s opponent Volkov also has lethal striking. Former M-1 and Bellator heavyweight champion, Volkov sits at 7-2 in the UFC. After losing to Curtis Blaydes last summer, Volkov rattled off two knockout wins over Walt Harris and Alistair Overeem. Slightly less aggressive overall, Volkov lands 4.88 significant strikes to 2.48 absorbed with his 56% striking defense. Both fighters have legitimate knockout power on the feet. 22 of Volkov’s 33 career wins occurred via knockout, while three off Gane’s eight wins came by knockout. However, Gane still looks like the more well-rounded striker. Volkov rarely uses kicks, while Gane’s Muay Thai background gives him more diverse striking patterns to fall back on. Less than 10% of Volkov’s strikes went to his opponent’s legs in his last three fights. On the mat, neither fighter attempts takedowns with much frequency. Gane averages 1.13 takedowns, but all five of his takedowns came against Rozenstruik and Don’Tale Mays. Gane has only faced three takedown attempts in his UFC career, but fortunately Volkov averages just 0.66 per bout. Volkov has only landed one takedown attempt in his combined last four fights and only three of his 33 wins came via submission. While Gane hasn’t shown much on the mat to this point, taking Volkov down could be a path to victory. Volkov has 66% takedown defense and has struggled against grapplers in the past. Blaydes took Volkov down 14 times and controlled him for over 19 minutes in Volkov’s most recent loss. Gane doesn’t have the high-level wrestling skills of Blaydes, but this could provide an additional path to winning rounds. Overall, Volkov is the far more experienced fighter. With 41 professional fights to Gane’s eight, experience could be Volkov’s x-factor. For DFS, this fight deserves special attention with the two extra rounds. Gane’s $8,700 price tag makes him attractive, but appropriately priced overall. Given Gane’s limited experience, Volkov should be one of the popular underdogs on this card at $7,500. The odds continue to move in Volkov’s favor, and he currently sits as a +130 underdog. The official pick is Gane, but people with multiple lineups would benefit from split exposure.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Cyril Gane ($8,700)
Boser vs. Saint Preux
Another heavyweight bout on the main card, Tanner Boser steps up on short notice to fight former light heavyweight title challenger Ovince Saint Preux. Boser enters this fight fresh off two losses to Andrei Arlovski and Ilir Latifi. The most recent split decision loss to Latifi caused quite the stir among Boser and the MMA community. Boser out-struck Latifi 45-10, but Latifi landed a pair of takedowns on Boser. While Latifi controlled Boser for six minutes, he didn’t land a single strike or attempt any submissions with Boser on the mat. This loss put Boser’s professional record at 19-8-1 (draw). On the other side, Saint Preux again makes the jump to the heavyweight division after going 1-2 in 2020. Saint Preux lost his last heavyweight bout to Ben Rothwell by split decision, before going 1-1 in the light heavyweight division against Alonzo Menifield and Jamahal Hill. Saint Preux missed weight during his last light heavyweight fight causing him to move up here. Originally scheduled to fight Maxim Grishin, Saint Preux now faces Boser. From a striking standpoint, Boser has an edge over Saint Preux. Boser lands 4.21 significant strikes for every 2.26 absorbed. His 63% striking defense is one of the best marks in the division. Saint Preux lands just 2.68 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.03. His 45% striking defense also gives Boser an edge. However, Saint Preux will be the longer fighter with a five-inch reach advantage. On the mat, Saint Preux has a clear edge. Boser has never attempted a takedown at the UFC and has 60% takedown defense. However, Boser’s takedown defense is a small sample after facing mostly standup fighters to this point. Saint Preux has the stronger wrestling and averages 1.19 takedowns per bout. Saint Preux will also threaten submissions. He averages 0.6 submission attempts, with eight of his 25 victories coming via submission. Still, this area is uncharted waters with Boser’s lack of time spent on the ground. He has also never been submitted in 28 professional fights. In DFS, Boser actually looks like a decent value. At $8,300 and -175 to win, Boser has the same or a better implied chance at victory than more expensive fighters in Charles Rosa, Damir Hadzovic, Ciryl Gane, and Tim Means. However the overall output in this fight leaves a lot to be desired. Potentially low scoring in a decision, this fight looks middling for DFS. The official pick is Saint Preux.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Ovince Saint Preux ($7,900)
Pinpoint The Top Fighters for UFC DFS Awesemo’s UFC DFS Top Fighter Tool for DraftKings and FanDuel synthesizes our MMA DFS Projections and Ownership Projections to help you build competitive UFC DFS tournament lineups. The Top Fighters Tool is designed to help you simplify this information to compare a player’s ownership with their chances of being a top-scoring fighter on that slate.Barcelos vs. Valiev
Two highly touted prospects face off in the bantamweight division as Raoni Barcelos faces Timur Valiev. Barcelos enters this fight with a perfect 5-0 record in the UFC. Barcelos has a 16-1 career record. Most recently he defeated Said Nurmagomedov and Khalid Taha. Valiev enters the UFC octagon for the third time after defeating Martin Day and fighting a no contest against Trevin Jones. A controversial fight before the bout was overturned, Valiev could have been awarded a knockout victory at various points in the first round. With Chris Tognoni allowing the fight to continue, Jones rallied between rounds and knocked out Valiev in Round 2. Ultimately, the fight was scored a no contest when Jones failed a drug test. One of Russia’s hyped prospects, Valiev sits at 17-2 in his career with an additional loss to Chris Gutierrez on the regional scene. After fighting Day at featherweight, Valiev will transition back down to bantamweight for this bout. On the feet, Barcelos lands 5.59 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.17. His 67% striking defense points to his elevated strikes absorbed coming from sheer volume from opponents. Valiev has also shown the ability to overwhelm opponents with strikes. He out-struck Jones 66-26 in his debut, before outclassing Day 55-8. Barcelos looks like the more lethal striker with eight wins by knockout to Valiev’s five. While each fighter has shown bright spots on the feet, both particularly excel on the mat. Barcelos formerly competed for Brazil’s National Wrestling Team and has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Valiev also has a gold medal in wrestling on the European scene and a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. A Master of Sport in Sambo, Valiev generally has no problem taking opponents down. From a statistical perspective, Barcelos lands 2.23 takedowns on average to Valiev’s 2.73. Barcelos defends takedowns at an 85% clip to Valiev’s 50%. However, Valiev’s sample size is miniscule within the UFC. He has only faced two takedown attempts in total. Unlike Valiev, Barcelos averages 0.7 submission attempts per bout. Valiev has never been submitted, but Barcelos black belt could be the deciding factor on the ground. This fight looks extremely aggressive based on the projected pace. However, at -187 to get to a decision, a finish looks unlikely. At $8,800 Barcelos has the volume and strong odds as the -220 favorite. Even without a finish, he has a strong path to a solid score. Valiev also wins this fight with takedowns and volume. While Barcelos has defended them well in the past, the overall aggression of this fight makes Valiev interesting as an underdog. The favorite in Barcelos gets the win here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Raoni Barcelos ($8,800)
Fili vs. Pineda
In the featherweight division, Andre Fili will fight Daniel Pineda in a get-right spot for both fighters. Entering this fight at age 30, Fili lost his most recent bout via unanimous decision to Bryce Mitchell. Now 9-7 at the UFC level, Fili’s losses have come to some of the top competition in the division. On the other side, Pineda also enters this bout fresh off a loss. Now in his second stint with the UFC Pineda sits at 4-5 within the promotion, fighting far weaker competition. He is 1-1 in his most recent stint after defeating Herbert Burns and losing to Cub Swanson. Pineda will also be the elder fighter in this bout. Fili fights out of Team Alpha Male. Known primarily for his striking, Fili lands 3.73 significant strikes per minute to his 3.90 significant strikes absorbed. Despite his poor 36% striking accuracy, Fili’s constant forward pressure wears on opponents. Fili will also have a massive size advantage here with four inches in height and five inches in reach. With similar aggression on the mat, Fili averages 2.50 takedowns per bout with 49% accuracy. While Fili wrestles often, he lacks the submission prowess of Pineda. Fili averages 0.2 submission attempts per bout and has just three of 21 professional victories coming via submission. On the other side, Pineda lands 3.41 significant strikes for every 2.72 absorbed. Pineda has solid leg kicks and boxing from a striking standpoint. However, Pineda’s 44% striking defense leaves him vulnerable to Fili’s tactical striking. On the mat, Pineda appears just as aggressive as Fili. Pineda averages 1.55 takedowns per bout with 29% accuracy. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Pineda has 18 of 27 professional wins by submission. Fili has been submitted twice in his career. While Pineda’s 44% takedown defense will give Fili a chance to win rounds, Fili must also be wary of Pineda’s slick jiu-jitsu. With both fighters implementing a fast pace, this fight looks like one to circle for DFS. Fili’s $8,900 price tag is expensive, but appropriate here as the -230 betting favorite. Also +150 to finish the fight, Fili has a path to a monster score in a victory. For Pineda as the underdog, other fighters provide more value. However, his jiu-jitsu gives him a path to victory in contrarian lineups.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Andre Fili ($8,900)
Means vs. Dalby
After both fighters had opponents drop out, Tim Means will now face Nicolas Dalby in the welterweight division on short notice. Originally scheduled to face Danny Roberts last week, Means enters this bout on a two-fight winning streak over Laureano Staropoli and Mike Perry. Means has a 31-12-2 professional record, while fighting some of the division’s top competition. Dalby also enters this fight on short notice after Sergey Khandozhko backed out. Dalby has a 3-3-1 record in the UFC. He recently defeated Daniel Rodriguez, but his second most recent fight turned into a no contest after Jesse Ronson failed a drug test. Dalby originally lost the contest via submission. Both fighters are currently in their second stint in the UFC after previous releases. From a striking perspective, Means looks like the more well-rounded fighter. He lands 5.16 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.58. His strong 61% striking defense also stands out. Means has 19 career knockout victories, but only five of those have occurred inside the UFC. Dalby is slightly more wrestling based than Means’ original opponent, but still strikes a fair amount. Less aggressive overall, Dalby lands 3.20 significant strikes per minute. However, Dalby’s 55% striking defense and 3.57 significant strikes absorbed gives him a negative striking ratio. All of Dalby’s UFC fights have gone the distance. On the mat, both fighters will mix in takedowns on occasion. Means averages 0.92 takedowns per bout with 41% accuracy. He has exactly six takedowns in his last six fights. Dalby averages 1.45 takedowns but has just one takedown in his combined last five fights. Means and Dalby have similar takedown defense at 64% and 63%. Both fighters have similar strengths and weaknesses here, but Means fights with a slightly higher pace. For DFS, the projected output makes this an interesting DFS fight. Line movement in Dalby’s direction makes Means a bit overpriced at $8,400. Right now, he sits at -130 with money continuing to come in on Dalby. However, Means superior strength of schedule and better volume gives him a stark advantage over a fighter in Dalby who has struggled against questionable competition in the UFC. Means is the pick in DFS and overall here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Tim Means ($8,400)
Moicano vs. Herbert
In the men’s lightweight division, UFC veteran Renato Moicano will face newcomer Jai Herbert. Moicano sits at 6-4 in the UFC since making his debut in 2014. While his most recent loss came to Rafael Fiziev, Moicano’s other losses came at the hands of Chan Sung Jung, Jose Aldo, and Brian Ortega. Also defeating Calvin Kattar and Cub Swanson, Moicano has one of the tougher strength of schedules within the division. On the other side, Herbert enters the octagon for the second time at the UFC level. Herbert lost a controversial fight to Francisco Trinaldo in his debut. One of the more well-rounded fighters in the UFC, Moicano has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai. On the feet, Moicano lands 5.40 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.74. Despite his 65% striking defense, Moicano has been knocked out three times in his last four fights. On the other side, Herbert lost the striking battle 30-21 in his debut against Trinaldo. A heavy-handed affair, both Herbert and Trinaldo scored a knockdown in that contest. Eight of Herbert’s 10 career wins occurred via knockout, making the striking battle more even than the numbers suggest. From a pure size perspective, Herbert has a two-inch height and five-inch reach advantage. With a Muay Thai background, Herbert has the skill set to give Moicano trouble on the feet. On the mat, Moicano lands 1.28 takedowns on average with 53% accuracy. Herbert struggled with takedowns in his first match. Trinaldo landed two of three attempts, but he only controlled Herbert for just over three minutes. Herbert doesn’t have any takedowns at the UFC level or submission wins on the profile, but he trains out of Renegade jiu-jitsu alongside Leon Edwards. Interestingly, Herbert’s two career losses both came via knockout. At this point, both fighters have major questions with their durability, evidenced by the +138 odds for this fight to get to a decision. This makes this bout very interesting for DFS. Aggressive from a striking perspective and sneaky on the ground, Moicano still looks a bit expensive at $9,400. Between his implied win percentage and chance for a finish, Moicano could come in a bit under owned. On the other side, the line continues to move in Herbert’s favor throughout the week. While still unlikely to win this fight, he looks like one of the top pure punt plays on the card.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Renato Moicano ($9,400)
Nzechukwu vs. Marques
Moving to the light heavyweight division, Kennedy Nzechukwu faces Danilo Marques. Nzechukwu defeated Carlos Ulberg via knockout earlier this year after a year and a half layoff. With his only loss coming to Paul Craig via submission, Nzechukwu currently sits at 8-1 professionally. On the other side, Marques makes his third UFC appearance after two-straight wins over Khadis Ibragimov and Mike Rodriguez. After training extensively out of Demian Maia’s jiu-jitsu, Marques made the move to King’s MMA. From a striking perspective, Nzechukwu looks like the more aggressive fighter. He lands 5.38 significant strikes per minute to 5.80 absorbed. His 48% striking defense embodies his ‘take a punch to land a punch’ mentality. Nzechukwu has five of eight wins coming via knockout. In his most recent affair against Ulberg, Nzechukwu lost the striking battle 82-146 before finding his knockout shot to win the fight. Nzechukwu stands one inch shorter than Marquez, but his six-inch reach advantage may come into play while this fight is standing. Nzechukwu hasn’t always used his elite size for the division to his advantage. A very different fighter on the other side, Marques only lands 1.81 significant strikes per minute for every 1.41 absorbed. Preferring to utilize his grappling, over half of Marques’ UFC fight time has been spent on the mat. Marques averages 4.83 takedowns per bout, despite his 34% takedown accuracy. Nzechukwu has 78% takedown defense but has struggled against wrestlers at times. Darko Stosic landed four takedowns against Nzechukwu in his second most recent fight. However, Stosic failed to keep Nzechukwu on the mat for any prolonged period of time. Craig also landed a takedown on Nzechukwu before getting the submission win. Five of Marques’ professional wins came via submission, and he averages 1.2 submission attempts per bout. In a true clash of styles, this fight could come down to Nzechukwu’s takedown defense. Fortunately, Nzechukwu has solid cardio and shouldn’t fade as this fight wears on. For DFS, this looks like a high output fight with a strong chance for a finish. Nzechukwu and Marques are both appropriately priced for this bout, and both have legitimate paths to victory. With strong takedown defense and the ability to outlast opponents, Nzechukwu gets it done here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Kennedy Nzechukwu ($8,200)
Be sure to check out the MMA Strategy Show for UFC Vegas 30: Gane vs. Volkov for even more expert UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Rakhmonov vs. Prazeres
In the men’s welterweight division, elite prospect Shavkat Rakhmonov faces Michel Prazeres in an interesting clash among potential contenders. Rakhmonov has a perfect 13-0 professional record. In his debut UFC fight last October, he submitted Alex Oliveira in the first round. Finishing every fight to date, Rakhmonov is one of the most dangerous prospects in the division. On the other side, Prazeres has a 26-3 professional record. Prazeres hasn’t fought since February of 2019 after landing a two-year suspension for performance enhancers. In his last octagon appearance he lost a decision to Ismail Naurdiev. Prior to that, Prazeres had rattled off eight straight wins. However, Prazeres missed weight on numerous occasions during that run before being forced up a weight class. On the feet, Rakhmonov is a tough evaluation. His only UFC fight ended in the first round via submission. However, Rakhmonov won seven of his 13 bouts by knockout and has a strong kickboxing background. He also has massive size advantages over Prazeres, with six inches in height and 10 inches in reach. Prazeres isn’t very aggressive as a striker. He lands 2.44 significant strikes per minute to 2.49 absorbed. Based on the limited sample and size advantages, Rakhmonov has an edge on the feet. On the mat, this fight looks more interesting. Rakhmonov is a master of combat sambo and has six victories via submission. In his debut bout, he successfully defended a pair of takedowns from Oliveira. Prazeres has a second-degree black belt in jiu-jitsu and averages 4.11 takedowns per bout. Prazeres only has 50% takedown defense, but he often welcomes fights to the mat. Also averaging 0.6 submission attempts per bout, Prazeres theoretically has the advantage on the ground. Rakhmonov’s takedown defense and scrambling ability will be key in this area of the fight. Again, Rakhmonov should be able to use his length to stuff takedowns from the smaller fights. Even at $9,100, Rakhmonov should be considered one of the stronger targets on this card. Currently -300 to win, betting odds continue to move in his favor. On the other side, this makes Prazeres a little too expensive with better values available. Likely to go relatively unowned, Prazeres is best left for large field tournaments. Rakhmonov gets his second win in the UFC over the undersized Prazeres.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Shavkat Rakhmonov
Alves vs. Wells
Originally supposed to face Ramazan Emeev, Warlley Alves now faces UFC newcomer Jeremiah Wells on short notice. Previously fighting some of the welterweight division’s top competition, Alves defeated Mounir Lazzez via first round knockout earlier this year. In his career, Alves has fought the likes of Colby Covington, Bryan Barberena, and Kamaru Usman. On the other side, Wells makes his UFC debut after previously fighting in 2019. Wells nearly made his UFC debut against Miguel Baeza at the tail end of 2020, but Baeza wasn’t medically cleared for the fight. Last fighting in September of 2019, Wells has been away from the octagon for almost two years. For a professional record, Wells sits at 8-2-1 and has some intriguing skills. Wells has three wins by knockout and another three by submission. He appears to have legitimate power for the division along with serviceable wrestling skills. He trains under fifth degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Daniel Gracie and has a brown belt himself, but now faces a steep step up in competition. On the other side Alves is an accomplished kickboxer and the younger fighter by four years. In the UFC, Alves lands 3.09 significant strikes for every 3.62 absorbed. Even with the negative striking ratio, Alves has four of 14 wins by knockout. Additionally, Alves is accomplished on the mat with six submission victories and a strong jiu-jitsu game. Alves lands 1.48 takedowns on average while threatening a submission attempt per bout. Alves has been finished in each of his last two losses, but his strength of schedule speaks for itself. For DFS, Alves looks like one of the best expensive fighters to target as the -230 favorite. He is also -120 for a finish, giving him multiple paths to a strong score. At +190, Wells is appropriately priced at $7,000. However, the less experienced fighter stepping up on short notice can’t get it done here. Alves gets the win here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Warlley Alves ($9,200)
Prachnio vs. Villanueva
Two fighters with tumultuous UFC careers to this point, Marcin Prachnio faces Ike Villanueva in the light heavyweight division. Sitting at 1-3 in the UFC, Prachnio won his most recent bout against Khalil Rountree Jr.. While he is 14-5 in his career, Prachnio has fought the superior competition to this point. On the other side, Villanueva is also coming off a win after defeating Vinicius Moreira earlier this year. Villanueva has an 18-11 professional record. This fight looks like a pure striker’s paradise. Neither fighter has ever landed a takedown at the UFC level. On the feet, Prachnio lands 5.40 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.71. A powerful striker, most of Prachnio’s fights finish early. He has 10 career knockouts and 14 of his 19 career fights ended in first round finishes. He is also the more diverse striker, often implementing kicks. Villanueva has a significant negative striking ratio. With horrific 37% striking defense, Villanueva lands 3.62 significant strikes for every 6.93 absorbed. On top of the overall aggressive pace this fight should be fought at, both fighters have questionable chins. Prachnio has already been knocked out four times, including three of his last four fights. Villanueva has also been knocked out five times, including two of his last three fights. Prachnio has the superior strength of schedule, but this low lower light heavyweight fight brings immense volatility. The fight is currently +138 to go to a decision. A true boom-bust fight, Prachnio is too expensive for his $9,000 price tag. He will need a knockout to pay this off. Villanueva is a decent value as a +165 underdog based on volume. Again, low-level heavyweight fights are extremely volatile, but Prachnio’s resume edges Villanueva’s here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Marcin Prachnio ($9,000)
Avila vs. Stoliarenko
Diving into the women’s bantamweight division, Julia Avila takes on Julija Stoliarenko in a fight originally scheduled for March of this year The original fight was ultimately postponed after Stoliarenko fainted on the scale. Entering this fight at age 33, Avila is 8-2 professionally. After defeating Pannie Kianzad and Gina Mazany, Avila dropped her most recent fight to Sijara Eubanks. On the other side, Stoliarenko has a 9-4-2 professional record, but sits at 0-2 in the UFC. Originally making her debut in 2018, Stoliarenko has dropped both her bouts against Leah Letson and Yana Kunitskaya. Fighting out of Oklahoma, Avila lands 3.10 significant strikes for every 2.90 absorbed. While relatively unaggressive, this positive output gives her a theoretical advantage over Stoliarenko. Stoliarenko lands 2.10 significant strikes, while absorbing 3.87. Neither fighter looks particularly sound on defense. Avila and Stoliarenko have 54% and 50% striking defense respectively. On the mat, Avila averages 0.49 takedowns with 50% accuracy. Stoliarenko has 66% takedown defense, but she has only faced three attempts. Kunitskaya found a way to take down Stoliarenko and control her for over 13 minutes in their last fight. Offensively, Stoliarenko is 0-5 on takedown attempts at the UFC level. Avila has been taken down four times and has 60% takedown defense. Stoliarenko does have eight wins by submission during her career, giving her decent Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills to fall back on. However, Avila has displayed a strong ground game from top position as well. On top of the statistical advantages, Avila also has the superior strength of schedule to date. Currently -360, Avila deserves her $9,300 price tag. However, this fight looks unlikely to feature high output or a finish from either fighter. At $6,900 and +280 in the betting markets, Stoliarenko is the fighter least likely to secure a win on this card. Both can be used in contrarian builds, but this fight isn’t preferred for DFS. Avila is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Julia Avila ($9,300)
Pinpoint The Top Fighters for UFC DFS Awesemo’s UFC DFS Top Fighter Tool for DraftKings and FanDuel synthesizes our MMA DFS Projections and Ownership Projections to help you build competitive UFC DFS tournament lineups. The Top Fighters Tool is designed to help you simplify this information to compare a player’s ownership with their chances of being a top-scoring fighter on that slate.Rosa vs. Jaynes
A low-level men’s featherweight fight, Charles Rosa takes on Justin Jaynes with job security on the line. Trading off wins and losses since his debut in 2014, Rosa dropped his most recent fight to Darrick Minner. Previously beating Kevin Aguilar by split decision, Rosa continually struggles against whenever tasked with fighting a step up in competition. Fortunately, he faces Jaynes who dropped each of his last three UFC fights. After a short notice victory over Frank Camacho, Jaynes lost three straight to Gavin Tucker, Gabriel Benitez, and Devonte Smith. With both fighters excelling on the mat, this fight may not spend much time on the feet. Rosa’s negative striking ratio features 3.11 significant strikes landed for every 3.78 absorbed. Similarly, Jaynes lands 3.58 strikes for every 6.49 absorbed. Interestingly, Jaynes’ striking defense sits at 58% compared to Rosa’s 48%. On the mat, Rosa has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Eight of his 13 wins occurred via submission. Rosa averages 1.76 takedowns, which looks like a potential avenue for success against Jaynes’ 33% takedown defense. With 40% takedown defense himself, Rosa sometimes welcomes fights to the mat. He has also been bodied by superior grapplers at times. Bryce Mitchell took Rosa down four times and controlled him for almost 13 minutes in a 15-minute fight. Minner also took him down four times and controlled him for 12 and a half minutes. Jaynes was a high school wrestler and finished second in the Michigan state championships. He currently coaches wrestling at Xtreme Couture but hasn’t been able to put it together in the UFC. He is 0-3 on takedown attempts. Luckily, Rosa’s 40% takedown defense is worse than any of his three opponents. Rosa has struggled against strong wrestlers in the past making Jaynes an interesting underdog here. A fairly aggressive fight with a decent shot at a finish, both fighters have some intrigue. Jaynes in particular at $7,600 could pay off in a victory. The stats don’t fully capture his upside on the mat, potentially making him under-owned here as well. While this low-level fight could go either way, targeting it for DFS looks important. Jaynes gets an upset victory here after finally showing off his wrestling.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Justin Jaynes ($7,600)
Medeiros vs. Hadzovic
An exciting fight on the prelims, Yancy Medeiros fights Damir Hadzovic in the men’s lightweight division. Coming off a nearly 18-month layoff, Medeiros hopes to right the ship after losing each of his last three matches against Donald Cerrone, Gregor Gillespie, and Lando Vannata. On the other side, Hadzovic also hasn’t stepped foot in the octagon in over a year. 0-2 in his most recent fights, Hadzovic dropped bouts against Christos Giagos and Renato Moicano. On the feet, Medeiros has absorbed considerable damage throughout his career. Knocked out four times, Medeiros lands 4.05 significant strikes per minute compared to 5.38 significant strikes absorbed. His 46% striking defense also leaves him vulnerable. Similarly, Hadzovic lands 2.99 significant strikes for every 2.99 absorbed. With 66% striking defense, Hadzovic has an edge on the feet. Coming from a Muay Thai background, Hadzovic throws a variety of strikes including strong kicks. Hadzovic has seven of 13 professional wins by knockout. On the mat, Medeiros has a background in wrestling, which he rarely uses. Averaging 0.12 takedowns per bout, Medeiros has just one takedown in over 10 years with the UFC. Hadzovic has 39% takedown defense and averages 0.68 takedowns per bout himself. While this fight looks unlikely to spend much time on the mat, Medeiros defends takedowns at a 76% clip. While both fighters have concerning losses on the profile, Hadzovic looks like the more well-rounded fighter. At $8,500, his volume looks middling on this card. Medeiros comes in at $7,700, making him slightly overvalued based on projected output. With this fight potentially going either way, it has GPP written all over it. Damir Hadzovic will be the official pick, but with little confidence.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Damir Hadzovic ($8,500)
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