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Expert UFC DFS Fight Analysis, Tips & Picks for UFC Vegas 33: Hall vs. Strickland Saturday, 7/31 | DraftKings & FanDuel

Matt Gajewski

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Matt Gajewski breaks down each fight on the UFC Vegas 33 card for expert DFS picks for DraftKings + FanDuel lineups on Saturday, 7/17/21.

With UFC returning to action this weekend, UFC Vegas 33 features Uriah Hall taking on Sean Strickland in the main event. This weekly Fight Analysis article will analyze every matchup on the card. Below you will find data-driven analysis for each matchup and a pick to win. This, along with Awesemo’s MMA DFS projections, Top Fighters Tool, and MMA DFS ownership projections will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.

UFC Vegas 33: Hall vs. Strickland MMA DFS Picks

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Uriah Hall vs. Sean Strickland

Headlining UFC Vegas 33, Uriah Hall faces Sean Strickland in the men’s middleweight division. Hall enters this fight at age 36 and as a +170 underdog. He is 17-9 in his career, but he currently boasts a four-fight winning streak. He defeated Anderson Silva last year, before earning a TKO against Chris Weidman due to a freak injury. On the other side, Strickland is 23-3 in his career and also the winner of four-straight. Most recently, he knocked off Brendan Allen and Krzysztof Jotko. Even Strickland’s losses are impressive, dropping fights to only Santiago Ponzinibbio, Kamaru Usman, and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Both fighters are known primarily for their striking. Hall has a negative striking ratio, landing 3.34 significant strikes per minute, with 3.54 absorbed. However, he has a second-degree black belt in karate, while also competing in kickboxing earlier in his career. He is also known as one of the division’s best counter strikers. While he will absorb damage, it helps him bait opponents later in fights. Similarly, Strickland lands 5.14 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.64. Strickland also has the superior striking defense at 67% compared to 53% for Hall. Neither fighter is particularly aggressive on the mat, but Strickland lands 1.14 takedowns on average to Hall’s 0.67. Strickland also has excellent 82% takedown defense. He has not been taken down since his 2017 fight against Usman. Hall has solid 69% takedown defense, but certain fighters have been able to drag him down. Antonio Carlos Junior took Hall down three times and controlled him for over ten minutes. This fight looks unlikely to hit the mat. Looking at finish potential, both fighters need to be wary of each other’s power. Strickland has ten professional wins coming via knockout, while Hall has 13. Hall has also been knocked out himself four times. With an in the distance prop of +140 this fight looks unlikely to reach a decision. From a DFS perspective, Hall is a bit expensive at $9,300 and just -200 to win. However, he throws with incredible volume and the five-round nature of this fight makes him a solid play. Conversely, the line continues to move in Hall’s favor making him one of the better pure underdogs to target. At $6,900, he could break the slate with a win. Strickland is still the official pick, but Hall is a solid salary saver in DFS this week.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Sean Strickland ($9,300)

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Cheyanne Buys vs. Gloria de Paula

A fight taking place in the women’s strawweight division, Cheyanne Buys faces Gloria de Paula as a -170 favorite. Buys made her UFC debut last year. After a Contender Series win, she lost her true debut to Montserrat Conejo after getting dominated on the mat. After her own win on the Contender Series last year, de Paula lost her UFC debut to Jinh Yu Frey. Buys is 5-2 in her professional career, while de Paula is 5-3. Buys is primarily a striker with a background in taekwondo. She lands 4.10 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 1.67. Similarly, de Paula has a background in Muay Thai and lands 3.33 significant strikes per minute to 1.20 absorbed. Both fighters have excellent striking defense at 65% for Buys and 70% for de Paula. De Paula has a two-inch height and four-inch reach advantage, which should work in her favor here. On the mat neither fighter has landed a takedown at the UFC level, but both have struggled against wrestlers at times. Buys allowed four takedowns to Conejo in her most recent loss. De Paula has also allowed four takedowns, but she found ways to reverse position in her Contender Series fight. However, Yu Frey controlled her for over nine minutes on the mat in her most recent fight. De Paula has slightly better takedown defense at 70% compared to 65% for Buys. Despite her recent struggles, Buys is still labeled a wrestler, giving her a potential advantage on the mat over de Paula. Ultimately, this fight provides little finish potential. Only one of Buys seven professional fights ended early. Similarly, de Paula had five of eight professional fights reach decisions. Bookmakers currently peg this fight at -278 to reach a decision. For DFS purposes, this fight is slightly more aggressive than it looks. Buys has not been able to implement her wrestling to this point, but she may find success here. Either way, this fight still leaves much to be desired. Buys brings opportunity cost at $8,900, while other underdogs offer more volume and finish potential than de Paula. Buys is the official pick, but this fight may be one to avoid for DFS outside of large-field tournaments.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Cheyanne Buys ($8,900)


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Kyung Ho Kang vs. Rani Yahya

Fighting out of the men’s bantamweight division, Kyung Ho Kang faces Rani Yahya as a -120 favorite. Kang has a 17-8-1 professional record. He enters this bout on a three-fight winning streak after knocking off Pingyuan Liu in December of 2019. On the other side, Yahya has a 27-10-2 professional record. Yahya is coming off a win earlier this year against Ray Rodriguez after fighting to a draw against Enrique Barzola in March of 2020. On the feet, neither fighter utilizes much volume. Kang lands 2.52 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy. He absorbs 2.43 significant strikes per minute, barely giving him a positive striking ratio. Similarly, Yahya lands 1.57 significant strikes per minute with 37% accuracy. His 1.70 significant strikes absorbed gives him a negative striking ratio. Yahya is a black belt in Muay Thai, but it has not shown up in his fights. Kang has a three-inch height and six-inch reach advantage, but this fight projects to spend little time standing. On the mat Kang lands 2.53 takedowns on average with 59% accuracy. Kang has multiple takedowns in five of his nine UFC fights, including his two most recent fights. He does find himself taken down occasionally, but his 71% takedown defense generally has up. Similarly, Yahya lands 2.89 takedowns per bout with 33% accuracy. Yahya does not have the best offensive wrestling, but he is a second-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu . Because of this, superior wrestlers have given him trouble. Yahya only defends takedowns at 24% overall. Ricky Simon took Yahya down four times, which has been a common theme in Yahya’s losses. Still, Yahya is extremely dangerous on the mat. He attempts 2.0 submissions on average, compared to 1.1 from Kang. At this point in his career, Yahya’s cardio is also questionable. If he cannot earn an early submission, he may struggle in the later rounds against Kang. Looking at finish potential, Kang has 11 submissions and two knockouts in his 17 professional wins. Similarly, Yahya has 21 wins by submission out of 27 wins. Both fighters have just one submission loss in their careers, but this looks like a potential path to victory for the eventual winner. Bookmakers peg this bout at -125 to reach a decision. For DFS, volume is on Kang’s side. However, the line continues to move against him and his $8,500 price tag, making him a bit overpriced. On the other side, Yahya is one of the top underdogs at +100 and $7,700. However, Yahya is also one of the least aggressive fighters on the card, making him somewhat dependent on a finish. A tricky evaluation for DFS, Kang gets it done here.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Kyung Ho Kang ($8,500)

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Bryan Barberena vs. Jason Witt

Moved up on the main card, Bryan Barberena faces Jason Witt in the men’s welterweight division. Barberena enters this fight with a 15-7 professional record. After getting knocked out by Vicente Luque and Randy Brown in back-to-back fights, Barberena picked up a decision win over Anthony Ivy. On the other side, Witt enters this fight as a +220 underdog after going 1-2 in the UFC to this point. After a submission win over Cole Williams last year, Witt fell again at the hands of Matthew Semelsberger. On the feet, Barberena is an aggressive striker. He lands 5.48 significant strikes per minute with 4.70 strikes absorbed. Barberena only defense strikes at 45%, which has caused him to get knocked out in his two most recent losses. Witt has a striking background in kickboxing, but he lands 3.16 significant strikes per minute, compared to 2.68 absorbed. Witt defends strikes at just 29%. He does not have much cage time in the UFC, but his two knockout losses in under a minute speak volumes regarding his poor striking defense. On the mat Witt looks like the aggressor with his wrestling background. He lands 3.65 takedowns but has never defended a takedown himself. Barberena defends takedowns at 60%, but he has struggled with wrestlers at times. Ivy landed five takedowns against Barberena in his most recent fight. However, Barberena has solid scrambling ability and can often work his way back to his feet. Generally speaking, only the best fighters in the division have been able to control Barberena on the mat. Based on Witt’s level of competition, this looks fairly unlikely here. This fight also brings a high likelihood for a finish. Barberena has seven total decisions in his 22 professional fights. Witt has six in his 25 fights. More importantly, Witt has been finished seven times in his career, including five by knockout. This fight is currently +150 to reach a decision. For DFS, this is one of the more aggressive fights on the card. Barberena comes with an exorbitant $9,600 price tag, but his volume and likelihood to finish the fight keep him in play. Witt is priced at $6,600, but value is not much of an issue on this card. He is viable in large-field tournaments, but looking at other value plays makes more sense. Barberena is the official pick here.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Bryan Barberena ($9,600)

Niklas Stolze vs. Jared Gordon

Headlining the preliminary card in the men’s welterweight division, Niklas Stolze faces Jared Gooden as a -200 favorite. The Stolze enters this fight with a 12-4 professional record. He is 0-1 in the UFC after losing his debut against a tough opponent in Ramazan Emeev. On the other side, Gordon is 17-6 in his professional career, but 0-2 in the UFC. Gooden dropped both of his fights to Alan Jouban and Abubakar Nurmagomedov since debuting in 2020. Stolze is Conor McGregor’s former training partner. He lands 2.00 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 1.93. He still out-struck Emeev despite getting controlled for almost seven minutes. Gooden has a significant negative striking ratio. He lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 7.60. He has poor striking accuracy and poor striking defense at 41% and 49% apiece. This should give Stolze a sizable advantage on the feet. On the mat Stolze landed his only takedown attempt against Emeev in his debut. However, he allowed four takedowns, putting his takedown defense at 66%. He also defended two submission attempts in that contest. On the other side, Gooden has one takedown in two fights. He allowed a takedown himself to Nurmagomedov, but he also stopped six additional attempts. This puts his takedown defense at 83%. The finishing power is not ideal here. Nine of Gooden’s 23 fights hit a decision, including his two at the UFC level. Meanwhile, nine of Stolze’s 16 featured a finish. Bookmakers put this fight at -175 to reach a decision. For DFS purposes, this fight is a must in cash games and low risk contests. Stolze is a -200 favorite at $7,000, making him a must-roster. In large-field tournaments he can be avoided in contrarian builds, but he is the best play on the slate. Gooden has viability as a contrarian option, but he is taking this fight on short notice. He is best left for large-field tournaments and contrarian lineups. Stolze is the official pick.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Niklas Stolze ($7,000)

Collin Anglin vs. Melsik Baghdasaryan

A fight taking place in the men’s featherweight division, Collin Anglin takes on Melsik Baghdasaryan as a +125 underdog. Anglin will be making his UFC debut after a Contender Series win over Muhammadjon Naimov last fall. Overall, he is 8-1 in his professional career. On the other side, Baghdasaryan will also make his UFC debut after a Contender Series win over Dennis Buzukja. Hyper-aggressive in his debut, Anglin landed 5.87 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.47. He comes from a wrestling background, but this aggression will help him in decisions. Similarly, Baghdasaryan has an extensive background in kickboxing and Muay Thai. He lands 6.80 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.82. Both fighters also hold legit knockout power. Four of Baghdasaryan’s five wins came via knockout. Anglin has four of eight wins coming via knockout. Because of his kickboxing background, Baghdasaryan should be the more technical striker. On the mat Anglin used his wrestling background to land three takedowns in his debut performance on the Contender Series, controlling Naimov for over four and half minutes. He also defended four takedowns, showing solid takedown defense. Conversely, Baghdasaryan did not land either of his takedown attempts, while getting taken down twice himself. Baghdasaryan defended another six, putting his takedown defense at 75%. Ultimately, bookmakers peg this fight with -125 odds to finish early. For DFS purposes, this is an extremely aggressive fight. Baghdasaryan is $8,600 and -145 to win, making him a solid value. He is also the far more experienced fighter, making him a solid target in all constructions. While less likely, Anglin should also score well in a victory due to his sharp wrestling skills. Baghdasaryan gets the job done here.

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UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Melsik Baghdasaryan ($8,600)


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Awesemo’s UFC DFS Top Fighter Tool for DraftKings and FanDuel synthesizes our MMA DFS Projections and Ownership Projections to help you build competitive UFC DFS tournament lineups. The Top Fighters Tool is designed to help you simplify this information to compare a player’s ownership with their chances of being a top-scoring fighter on that slate.

Chris Gruetzemacher vs. Rafa Garcia

In the men’s lightweight division, Chris Gruetzemacher faces Rafa Garcia as a +245 underdog. Gruetzemacher is 14-4 in his career at age 35. He is 3-3 in the UFC and 1-1 in his most recent fights. He defeated Joe Lauzon in 2018, before dropping a fight to Alexander Hernandez near the end of last year. On the other side, Garcia is 11-1 at 26 years of age. He lost his debut UFC fight against Nasrat Haqparast in March of this year. Despite the loss, Garcia still has a bright future, training with fighters like T.J. Dillashaw and Cub Swanson. Gruetzemacher has a background in Muay Thai. He lands 7.02 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.54. On the other side, Garcia has just one UFC fight, where he lost the striking battle 52-99 against Haqparast. However, Garcia has solid volume and striking. He will often strike as a path to securing takedowns. On the mat Gruetzemacher has a background in wrestling as well. He has never landed a takedown at the UFC, but he has also never attempted one. He defends takedowns at 62% and has struggled with wrestling heavy opponents at points in his career. This could be troublesome against Garcia, who has seven submission wins to his name. Garcia did not land any of his three takedown attempts in his debut, but he also defended a pair of takedowns from Haqparast. He has perfect 100% defense and will be the superior grappler based on his previous body of work. Bookmakers currently peg this fight as -110 to go the distance. However, it still looks like a solid fight to target for DFS. Garcia is $9,500, but he has the best odds at -310 on the entire card. This fight is also projects for a strong pace, giving Garcia multiple paths to paying off this salary. Like other massive underdogs, Gruetzemacher is best left for large-field tournaments, but a victory could break the slate. Garcia is the official pick.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Rafa Garcia ($9,500)

Danny Chavez vs. Kai Kamaka

Another bout in the men’s featherweight division, Danny Chavez faces Kai Kamaka as a -115 favorite. Chavez is 11-4 in his career and 1-1 in the UFC. He debuted with a win last August over T.J. Brown before losing his most recent fight to Jared Gordon. Similarly, Kamaka enters this fight with an 8-4 record. He is 1-2 in the UFC with a win over Tony Kelley and losses to Jonathan Pearce and Brown. Looking at the striking, Chavez has a significant negative striking ratio. He lands 2.93 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.17. His horrific 39% striking accuracy is partially to blame here. On the other side, Kamaka is far more aggressive and accurate. He lands 5.63 significant strikes with 56% accuracy. However, Kamaka also absorbs 6.26, giving him a negative striking ratio. Both fighters have decent wrestling, giving this fight a good chance of hitting the mat. Kamaka lands 2.66 takedowns on average. He debuted with five takedowns over Kelley, before securing just one in each of his last two fights. He has also been taken down seven times combined in his two losses, giving him 41% takedown defense. Chavez averages 2.50 takedowns per bout and defends them at 84%. Still, he struggled in wrestling exchanges against Gordon, who landed two of seven takedowns and controlled Chavez for over six minutes. While the samples are small, Chavez looks like the better wrestler. Neither fighter has much finishing potential here. 11 of Chavez’s 15 fights went to the judges. The same goes for Kamaka with nine decisions in 12 pro fights. Bookmakers peg this fight at -200 to reach a decision. For DFS, price and volume make this a solid fight to target. Chavez and Kamaka are both aggressive and priced affordably at $8,000 and $8,200 respectively. Chavez is the official pick with his solid wrestling and better strength of schedule. However, splitting exposure here is not a bad idea in DFS.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Danny Chavez ($8,000)

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Jinh Yu Frey vs. Ashley Yoder

In the women’s strawweight division, Jinh Yu Frey battles Ashley Yoder as a +125 underdog. Yu Frey is a veteran of Invicta. She has a 10-6 professional record and sits at 1-2 in the UFC. She lost her first two fights against Kay Hansen and Loma Lookboonmee before picking up her first win against Gloria de Paula earlier this year. Similarly, Yoder enters this fight at age 33 with an 8-7 professional record. She is 3-6 in the UFC with a win over Miranda Granger and a loss to Angela Hill in her most recent bouts. Yu Frey does not have an aggressive fighting style. She lands 1.79 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.35. Her 40% striking accuracy and 44% striking defense leave much to be desired. Similarly, Yoder has a negative striking ratio with 2.75 significant strikes landed to 3.53 significant strikes absorbed. Like Yu Frey, she has poor 39% striking accuracy and 46% striking defense. However, Yoder has considerable size advantages. She will have a four-inch height and reach advantage over Yu Frey here. On the mat Yoder is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. She lands 1.33 takedowns on average with 37% accuracy. She defends takedowns at 68% but has allowed them on occasion to superior fighters. Yu Frey lands 1.06 takedowns on average and she defends them at 83%. Most of this came from defending nine of Hansen’s 11 takedown attempts. Still, Yu Frey was submitted by Hansen. She needs to be careful of Yoder’s jiu-jitsu. Still, the overwhelming majority of bouts for these two fighters hit decisions. Yoder has four finish victories in 15 fights. Yu Frey has only seen six of her 16 fights hit decision as well. This fight is not the most aggressive in DFS terms, but Yoder has a solid $8,400 price tag. With massive size advantages, she should get the job done here.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Ashley Yoder ($8,400)

Ronnie Lawrence vs. Trevin Jones

Fighting in the men’s bantamweight division, Ronnie Lawrence battles Trevin Jones as a -150 favorite. Originally scheduled to fight a different opponent, Lawrence enters this fight with a 7-1 professional record. He is 2-0 in the UFC with wins over Jose Johnson and Vince Cachero. Similarly, Jones enters this fight with a 13-6-1 professional record. He is currently 1-0-1 in the UFC. He originally defeated Timur Valiev in his debut in a spectacular comeback. However, a positive marijuana test turned the victory into a no contest. He bounced back with a win over Mario Bautista in his most recent performance. Lawrence has not shown much desire to strike at this point of his career. He lands 3.80 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing just 1.09. However, 61 of his 105 strikes landed in ground-and-pound exchanges. On the other side, Jones actually has a negative striking ratio, despite his boxing background. He lands 3.84 significant strikes, while absorbing 6.81. Most of this came against Valiev, who won the striking battle 66-26 before getting knocked out. Lawrence and Jones should each have four knockouts in their careers. On the mat Lawrence is an extremely aggressive wrestler. He landed 12 and eight takedowns in his first two fights with 76% accuracy. He also has 100% takedown defense, defending three attempts in his UFC career. Jones is also aggressive as a grappler. However, He averages just 1.17 takedowns per bout with 20% accuracy. He has also never faced a takedown attempt, making his defense somewhat suspect entering this clash. This fight does not have as much finish potential as a few others. Bookmakers currently peg this fight at -110 to reach the judges. For DFS, the overall aggression and pace makes this a fight to target. Lawrence is a solid target at $8,700, but Jones recent performances also keep him in play at $7,500. This could be a fight to split exposure. Ultimately, Lawrence is the official pick with his superb wrestling.

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UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Ronnie Lawrence ($8,700)


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Philip Rowe vs. Orion Cosce

Fighting in the men’s welterweight division, Philip Rowe takes on Orion Cosce as a +130 underdog. Rowe is 7-3 in his professional career. After a Contender Series win over Leon Shahbazyan Rowe lost to Gabe Green earlier this year. On the other side, Cosce is 7-0 in his career. He is coming off a win against Matt Dixon on the Contender Series as well. Cosce’s appearance on the Contender Series was almost a year ago. Since then, he pulled out of a fight against Nicolas Dalby after sustaining a back injury. Rowe is an aggressive striker. He lands 4.99 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 5.34. Cosce has a background in Muay Thai and won the striking battle 67-29 in his debut. This gives him 4.56 significant strikes landed per minute. One x-factor could be Rowe’s enormous size. He has a four-inch height and nine-inch reach advantage in this bout. However, Rowe has struggled with pressuring opponents, which Cosce projects to implement. On the mat both fighters have shown a willingness to mix in takedowns. Cosce landed his only takedown attempt against Dixon, while defending seven of ten himself. Cosce showed solid scrambling ability as well, consistently working back to his feet. He has 70% takedown defense overall, which should be tested by Rowe. Rowe lands 1.19 takedowns on average with 33% accuracy. Rowe landed two takedowns in his most recent fight against Green, controlling him for nearly six minutes. However, Rowe has just 25% takedown defense and has been taken down in each of his UFC level fights. Rowe is a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and trains with the likes of Rodolfo Vieira. This fight also looks likely to finish early. Every one of Cosce’s fights ended with a finish. Likewise, Rowe only has two decisions in ten professional fights. Overall, this fight is +130 to reach the judges. For DFS, this is another solid fight to target. Cosce looks a bit overpriced at $8,800. He is just a -150 favorite with the line continuing to move in Rowe’s favor. Conversely, Rowe continues to gain steam at $7,400. Cosce is still the pick as the more technical striker, but this fight is closer than the DFS salaries indicate.

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UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Orion Cosce ($8,800)


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Ryan Benoit vs. Zarrukh Adashev

In the men’s flyweight division, Ryan Benoit faces Zarrukh Adashev as a -140 favorite. Benoit is 10-7 in his career, but only 3-5 in the UFC. he is currently on a two-fight losing streak, dropping recent bouts to Heili Alateng and Tim Elliott. On the other side, Adashev enters this fight with a 3-3 professional record. Adashev is 0-2 in the UFC after fighting Tyson Nam on short notice and dropping his next bout against Su Mudaerji. On the feet, Benoit has a background in Muay Thai. He lands 2.95 significant strikes, while absorbing 3.40. His poor 41% striking accuracy has allowed other volume strikers to outperform him in the past. On the other side, Adashev is a former professional kickboxer. Similar to Benoit, he has a negative striking ratio. Currently, he lands just 1.93 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.35. Again, his poor 23% striking accuracy stands out. Both fighters actually have solid striking defense at 60% apiece. On the mat Benoit lands 0.33 takedowns on average with 25% accuracy. He defends takedowns at 70%, but he has also struggled with strong wrestlers during his time with the UFC. He has allowed multiple takedowns in half of his UFC fights, but opponents have also struggled to keep him on the mat for extended periods of time. As for Adashev, the former kickboxer is 0-1 on takedown attempts, while never facing one himself. Because of his inexperience, this may be a route Benoit chooses to take. As for finish potential, nine of Benoit’s ten wins came via stoppage. Eight of those were knockouts. Four of Adashev’s six fights also ended early making a stoppage somewhat likely here. Bookmakers currently have this fight at -162 to reach a decision. For DFS, this is one of the least aggressive fights on the card. Benoit is a solid, yet unexciting favorite and Adashev is a bit overpriced for an underdog at +120 to win. Benoit is the official pick with his experience, but this could be one to avoid for DFS.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Ryan Benoit ($8,300)

Nicco Montano vs Wu Yanan

In the women’s bantamweight division, Nicco Montano faces Wu Yanan as a -255 favorite. Montano is 4-3 in her career. She has not fought in two years and is 1-1 at the UFC level. She won her debut over Roxanne Modafferi in 2017 before dropping her most recent fight to current title challenger Julianna Pena. On the other side, Yanan is 11-4 in her career. She is 0-2 in her most recent fights, dropping bouts to Mizuki Inoue and Joselyne Edwards. Both women are aggressive strikers here, with Montano landing 5.60 significant strikes per minute to Yanan’s 4.51. Yanan actually has a negative striking ratio, absorbing 4.82 significant strikes per minute. On the mat Montano has found more success to date. She lands 2.25 takedowns on average to Yanan’s 0.61. Montano also has the slightly better takedown defense at 69%. Neither fighter has much finishing power, and this fight is currently -275 to reach a decision. Montano has significantly better competition to this point and has multiple advantages over Yanan. As for DFS, Montano is a solid target at $9,100. She is not likely to secure a finish, but her volume is solid. Conversely, Yanan is a bit overpriced, and her volume is not quite as strong. This fight still brings opportunity cost with fighters like Strickland in the same range. However, it could make sense in larger field sizes. Montano is the official pick.

UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Nicco Montano ($9,100)


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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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