UFC Vegas 23 may be headlined by Marvin Vettori vs. Kevin Holland, but there are plenty of other great fights to keep an eye on. This weekly Fight Analysis article will break down and analyze every matchup on the card. Below you’ll find my data-driven analysis for each match and a pick to win; this info will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
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UFC DFS Picks: Vettori vs. Holland DraftKings & FanDuel MMA
Vettori vs. Holland
Kevin Holland is stepping up on short-notice against Marvin Vettori, and looking to turn-around after a disappointing defeat to Derek Brunson. This isn’t an easy matchup for Holland though. Vettori is a talented striker with strong wrestling, and will exploit Holland’s wrestling deficiency. Holland is one of the most talented underdogs on the slate, but this is not a great matchup for him. The price is rich, but Vettori’s complete game could result in a good DFS performance. There are 14 fights on the slate, so I will be even with the field on Vettori, but I’m expecting a decisive victory.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Vettori ($9,600)
Yusuff vs. Allen
In the co-main event of the evening, Sodiq Yusuff takes on Arnold Allen. I have high hopes for both gentlemen within the division, and this is a pairing of two talented prospects. Yusuff has impressive power and combinations, while Allen has a pressure-based style from the southpaw stance. Despite my excitement for this fight, I’m unsure if I will prioritize it. Yusuff is a strong striker who can always get a finish, but I am concerned with his takedown defense. Andre Fili was able to take down Yusuff multiple times, and it made me question whether I have been too high on Yusuff. Allen should implement takedowns in an effort to exploit the deficiency in Yusuff’s game. Allen has faced several notable names, but all have been past their prime. I’m intrigued to see both fighters in this matchup, as they will likely nullify each other throughout. It’s a slight lean to the underdog based on the DraftKings scoring, as Allen has a higher floor due to takedowns.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Allen ($7,700)
Alvey vs. Marquez
Next is a clash between Sam Alvey and Julian Marquez in the middleweight division. Alvey is dropping back down to 185 pounds, so I’m interested to see him at the weigh-ins, especially since Alvey is currently (0-4-1) in his past five bouts. Alvey is too patient at times, constantly backing up and waiting to land the perfect counter. It’s difficult to bank on Alvey landing one counter-shot, because his path to victory is extremely limited. Marquez had an underwhelming start in his last bout against Maki Pitolo, but ultimately came back and got the finish. This will be a low-volume striking affair, but Marquez will pressure enough to come out victorious.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Marquez ($9,000)
Nunes vs. Dern
Next is an interesting fight between Nina Nunes and Mackenzie Dern. I am intrigued with this matchup because Nunes is recently returning from pregnancy, and seems to be rushing her return to the cage. Dern is a BJJ savage, but has struggled at times to force her opponents to the mat. Dern has worked extensively on improving her striking though, and perhaps this is the matchup to showcase her skills. Nunes has a clear path to beating Dern, and it consists of movement and effective striking, but I just think Nunes will be a lesser version of herself with the quick turnaround. If this fight hits the mat, I have full faith in Dern’s ability to dominate and work towards a finish. I would recommend splitting your exposure with a lean towards the underdog, Dern.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Dern ($7,900)
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Perry vs. Rodriguez
In a fight that screams GPP, Mike Perry takes on Daniel Rodriguez. Certain fights stick out to me when I’m breaking down film, and this stylistic matchup has plenty of potential. It appears that Perry has taken his career seriously, and has moved training camps to MMA Masters (a notable gym within the Florida area). Perry has not been focused, committed and professional throughout his UFC tenure, and I’m intrigued to see if he has made any adjustments. He is presented with a tough opponent in Rodriguez, and Rodriguez should have the edge in this matchup. Rodriguez is a southpaw with high-volume, good power, and good grappling. Rodriguez can threaten Perry in multiple areas of the fight, and possibly work towards a finish. With all that being said, I find Perry to be the most intriguing underdog, and I will have plenty of shares of both fighters.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Rodriguez ($8,800)
Miller vs. Solecki
This next fight between Jim Miller and Joe Solecki might be flying under the radar, but I will be smashing exposure to it. This isn’t an easy fight by any means, but Solecki could dominate throughout. Miller is a tough task, as he possesses strong leg-kicks, good striking, and a savvy submission game. The issue for Miller is Solecki’s strong grappling game, youth, and aggressiveness. I will definitely have some flyers on Miller, but Solecki could put Miller in some bad positions, implement some brutal ground and pound, and work towards a finish.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Solecki ($9,100)
Holtzman vs. Gamrot
In what could be an interesting lightweight bout, Scott Holtzman takes on Mateusz Gamrot. Throughout Holtzman’s career he’s always had the wrestling advantage in fights to compliment his striking, but that’s not the case in this matchup. Gamrot is a wrestling freak, who pushes a ridiculous work-rate and pressure that often breaks his opponents. Holtzman will not break, and he will challenge Gamrot throughout. Holtzman is an excellent underdog to sprinkle in, but I favor Gamrot in the matchup.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Gamrot ($9,200)
Dumont vs. Blanchfield
Erin Blanchfield will be stepping up on short-notice to take on Norma Dumont. Dumont is a well-rounded fighter for the division, with solid striking, good takedowns and decent jiu-jitsu. Blanchfield is a jiu-jitsu fighter with tons of potential, but her striking is lagging behind her grappling. Dumont should display better striking, and a better overall MMA game at this moment.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Dumont ($9,300)
Makdessi vs. Bahamondes
This lightweight bout will feature two strikers locking horns, as John Makdessi takes on Ignacio Bahamondes. Initially when I saw Makdessi as an underdog I was intrigued, until I started to watch tape and further dive into the matchup. Makdessi is a good striker who has turned into a sniper over the years, primarily relying on his hands to outpoint his opponents. Bahamondes is a monster for the division, formerly fighting in the welterweight division, and having a 7 inch reach and height advantage. In addition to his physical advantages, Bahamondes is a tricky striker with kicks from all angles, and a great understanding for his style. Despite the significant step up in competition, Bahamondes will pass this test with flying colors. The only concern would be in regards to finishing Makdessi.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Bahamondes ($8,900)
De Castro vs. Danho
In the strangest fight of the evening, Yorgan De Castro takes on Jarjis Danho. This is a heavyweight matchup with many question marks, so this could be a perfect GPP target. Danho has been away from the cage for five years, and De Castro is a talented striker for the division. It’s impossible to have any confidence in a fighter who is 37 years old and hasn’t been actively competing. Despite the heavy price-tag, there could be heavyweight finish and a De Castro victory.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: De Castro ($9,400)
Shore vs. Azure
In this bantamweight bout is undefeated Jack Shore facing Hunter Azure. Shore is an excellent prospect with decent striking, strong wrestling and a suffocating ground game. Azure is an accredited wrestler who has fallen in love with his hands, but has plenty of skills to make this a difficult fight for Shore. I’m always intrigued when two fighters from different parts of the world collide. This is another sneaky fight to target where I will be splitting exposure. I edge Shore’s relentless pace and suffocating ground game to walk away victorious.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Shore ($8,700)
Saldana vs. Griffin
In this featherweight bout, Jordan Griffin fights Luis Saldana. Throughout Griffin’s UFC tenure, he has been an inconsistent fighter who hasn’t been able to solidify rounds in the Octagon. Griffin will have moments in every fight, but get outmatched as the fight continues. I have been impressed with Saldana’s footage thus far, and he can win rounds against Griffin. Saldana has racked up numerous knockouts and submissions throughout his career, and should be well-prepared for this bout. My only concern in this matchup is the strength of schedule for Saldana, and for that I will have Griffin apart of my long-shot pool.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Saldana ($8,600)
Jung vs. Knight
In our light-heavyweight bout of the evening, Da Un Jung takes on William Knight. Both fighters are extremely talented for the division, but Jung will need to keep this fight on the feet if he wants to win. Knight is a specimen who has next-level strength, solid wrestling and a phenomenal top game that dismantles his opponents. Jung is a powerful striker and could knockout Knight at any moment, but Knight’s grappling will be too much. In several regional fights I noticed Jung was taken down and controlled at times, and that is not good when you’re facing a powerhouse in Knight. I will lean towards Knight but have some Jung exposure for the KO.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Knight ($7,800)
Kasanganay vs. Palatnikov
Kicking off UFC Vegas 23 is an exciting welterweight bout between Impa Kasanganay and Sasha Palatnikov. It will be interesting to see Kasanganay dropping down a weight class and competing at welterweight, in addition to joining a new team in Sanford MMA. Kasanganay is a talented fighter with plenty of potential, but the price tag is outrageous. Kasanganay can put together strong combinations, and mix in some wrestling, but this isn’t a cakewalk of a matchup. Palatnikov is coming off a beautiful upset over Louis Cosce and showcased excellent toughness and cardio. Palatnikov is a volume striker who can overwhelm his opponents at times, but has been rocked throughout his career. Not often will you find me backing a fighter coming off a devastating knockout, but I am favoring Kasanganay in the matchup. This fight could have GPP implications, so have plenty of exposure.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Kasanganay ($9,500)
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