After a week without UFC action, MMA action returns with UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor III. This weekly Fight Analysis article will dissect every matchup on the card and below, you will find data-driven analysis for each matchup with a pick to win. This, along with Awesemo’s MMA DFS projections, Top Fighters Tool and UFC DFS ownership projections will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
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UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor III MMA DFS Picks
Poirier vs. McGregor III
Headlining UFC 264, Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor face each other for the third time in the men’s lightweight division. The first fight occurred back in 2014, with McGregor winning via first-round knockout. Since then, Poirier has rattled off ten wins, with just two losses and a no contest. Meanwhile, McGregor has six wins and three losses since the first Poirier fight.
The second bout between these two opponents occurred earlier this year in January. Poirier won via knockout in the second round, setting up perhaps the biggest pay-per-view of the year. Like the first two fights, this bout likely spends a majority of the time spent standing up. Poirier has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (Brazilian jiu-jitsu) and possesses a dangerous striking game. Training out of American Top Team, Poirier lands 5.59 significant strikes per minute with 4.17 significant strikes absorbed.
McGregor also has a strong standup game from his boxing/karate background. He lands 5.34 significant strikes per minute, compared to 4.54 absorbed. Each fighter possesses legitimate knockout power for the division. Four of Poirier’s last six wins came via knockout. His most recent decision against Dan Hooker was also one of the most brutal standup fights in all of 2020, which could have been stopped multiple times. McGregor also has ten wins at the UFC level, with eight coming via knockout.
On the mat, Poirier looks to have the advantage. With his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Poirier has seven submission victories and averages 1.47 takedowns per bout. McGregor lands 0.70 takedowns on average himself. More importantly, he defends takedowns at 67%. Poirier landed the only takedown between these two in the first fight, but McGregor has the strong scrambling ability. Of McGregor’s five professional losses, four occurred via submission. Poirier has also fought the superior competition of late. Since McGregor’s 2018 loss to Khabib Nurmagomedov, his lone victory occurred over a declining Donald Cerrone. Meanwhile, Poirier has wins over Max Holloway, Hooker, and McGregor himself, with his only loss also coming to Nurmagomedov.
For DFS purposes, this fight is a must to have on your roster. Both fighters are extremely aggressive on the feet and affordably priced. This fight is also +250 to make it to a decision. If it does go the distance, the five-round nature of the fight makes a solid DFS score likely. Given the edge on the mat and his previous victory in January, Poirier is my official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Dustin Poirier ($8,100)
Burns vs. Thompson
In UFC 264’s co-main event, two former title contenders in Gilbert Burns and Stephen Thompson battle on Saturday in the men’s welterweight division. Burns enters this bout fresh off his first loss since his six-fight winning streak. He most recently lost by knockout to current champion Kamaru Usman. Thompson enters this bout on a two-fight winning streak over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal. While not as active as Burns, Thompson has battled injuries during the latter part of his career. A knee injury suffered against Neal kept him from fighting Leon Edwards earlier this year.
From a striking perspective, Thompson has a clear advantage. As an accomplished kickboxer/karate fighter, Thompson is one of the most lethal strikers in MMA. He averages 4.24 significant strikes per minute. Also evasive, Thompson’s credentialed striking allows him to avoid big shots and absorb only 2.80 significant strikes per minute. Burns lands 3.22 significant strikes per minute with 3.04 absorbed. He has also been knocked out twice in his career, including his two most recent losses to Usman and Hooker. Thompson has seven of his 16 professional wins by knockout and has a four-inch reach advantage over Burns.
However, Burns cannot be counted out on the feet. While his striking is not as advanced as Thompson’s, he still has power. In the opening round against Usman, Burns rocked the champion with a pair of powerful strikes. On the mat, Burns is a second-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Burns has eight of his 19 professional wins coming via submission. He lands 2.08 takedowns per bout with 35% accuracy. Thompson has 78% takedown defense, which could be the key to this fight. Thompson has not been taken down in five straight fights, but he only faced two attempts in that span. As mentioned above, Thompson’s elusiveness extends to takedown defense. Effectively managing range, Thompson’s opponents often struggle to close the distance and attempt takedowns in the first place. Thompson averages 0.32 takedowns himself but should be wary of Burns’ elite ground game.
As for DFS, this fight provides enough aggression to target for DFS. While this fight is -115 to get to a decision, both fighters throw with the volume on the feet. Burns also attempts enough takedowns to warrant consideration as an underdog here. At this point, both fighters have shown cracks in their game. At -155 to win overall, Thompson looks like one of the best mid-priced favorites to attack on this card. However, with Burn’s slick jiu-jitsu, the underdog also has a path to victory in contrarian lineups.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Stephen Thompson ($8,500)
Tuivasa vs. Hardy
In the men’s heavyweight division, Tai Tuivasa takes on Greg Hardy in a fan-favorite matchup. As a former rugby player, Tuivasa enters this bout with a 5-3 record in the UFC. He is currently on a two-fight winning streak, with wins over Harry Hunsucker and Stefan Struve. On the other side, Hardy sits at 6-3-1 at the UFC level after making his transition from the NFL. His most recent bout ended in a knockout loss at the hands of Marcin Tybura.
As athletic as they come, Hardy also has a three-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over Tuivasa. Both fighters are pure strikers with one combined takedown between them in 18 UFC fights. The lone takedown came from Hardy against Maurice Greene. Tuivasa comes from a Muay Thai and kickboxing background. He lands 4.38 significant strikes per minute compared to 3.44 significant strikes absorbed. Similarly, Hardy lands 4.83 significant strikes per minute with 3.12 significant strikes absorbed.
Hardy trains out of American Top Team, giving him some of the best training partners in the world. This helped close the gap in his limited experience. Tuivasa still has an experienced edge and looks like the more diverse striker. Notably, Tuivasa has strong kicks from his Muay Thai and kickboxing background. Hardy has struggled against kicks in the past. In his fight against Yorgan de Castro, Hardy absorbed 16 of 24 strikes via leg kick. Fortunately for Hardy, de Castro broke his foot in the bout, eliminating his best weapon.
This fight also brings immense finish potential. Tuivasa has 10 of his 11 wins occurring via knockout. Hardy also has six of his seven wins occurring via knockout. Even in his most recent loss to Tybura, Hardy knocked down Tybura in the opening round. This fight is +150 to get to a decision, with in-the-distance props favoring Tuivasa. Both fighters are relatively aggressive, but a knockout is the best path to a strong DFS score. Tuivasa has the experience edge, but Hardy is the more athletic and larger fighter. Hardy has struggled against superior competition, so Tuivasa is the tentative pick here in a potentially close fight.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Tai Tuivasa ($8,400)
Aldana vs. Kunitskaya
Moving to the women’s bantamweight division, Irene Aldana faces Yana Kunitskaya for a chance at a potential future title shot against Amanda Nunes. As the elder fighter, Aldana is fresh off a loss to Holly Holm last October, and now her record in the UFC currently sits at 5-4 overall. On the other side, Kunitskaya sits at 4-2 in the UFC with two straight wins over Julija Stoliarenko and Ketlen Vieira.
As one of the more aggressive strikers in the division, Aldana lands 5.52 significant strikes for every 5.97 absorbed. Despite her negative striking ratio, Aldana still has 61% striking defense. This defense has faltered of late. Holm landed 154 strikes for Aldana’s 69 strikes in her most recent fight. Kunitskaya also has a strong striking background in taekwondo and Muay Thai. Kunitskaya lands 4.22 significant strikes per minute with 57% accuracy. Interestingly, her 51% striking defense falls well below Aldana, but she only absorbs 2.62 significant strikes per minute.
Being the more well-rounded fighter, Kunitskaya often uses her striking as an avenue to get fighters into the clinch before subsequent takedown attempts. Neither fighter possesses much finishing power on the feet. All four of Kunitskaya’s UFC wins occurred via decision, while Aldana has one of five wins occurring via knockout. On the mat, Kunitskaya also looks to have an advantage. She lands 1.62 takedowns on average with 53% accuracy. Aldana has 84% takedown defense, but she again showed cracks in her most recent fight. Holm managed to land five takedowns on Aldana, controlling her for over five minutes. Aldana herself averages 0.23 takedowns, but she has just two takedowns landed in nine UFC fights. Kunitskaya has 50% takedown defense overall, but her body of work still suggests an advantage over Aldana here.
For DFS, the line continues to move in Kunitskaya’s favor. Now +100 to win the fight and $7,900 in salary, she is a solid underdog target here. This fight is still -275 to get to a decision, but both fighters are extremely aggressive on their feet. Add in Kunitskaya’s takedown ability and this fight has a solid chance to finish with a solid DFS score. Given her recent body of work and technical advantages, Kunitskaya is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Yana Kunitskaya ($7,900)
Pinpoint The Top Fighters for UFC DFS Awesemo’s UFC DFS Top Fighter Tool for DraftKings and FanDuel synthesizes our MMA DFS Projections and Ownership Projections to help you build competitive UFC DFS tournament lineups. The Top Fighters Tool is designed to help you simplify this information to compare a player’s ownership with their chances of being a top-scoring fighter on that slate.O’Malley vs. Moutinho
Fan-favorite Sean O’Malley now takes on UFC newcomer Kris Moutinho after Louis Smolka dropped out with an undisclosed injury. After suffering an injury himself in his loss to Marlon Vera, O’Malley rebounded with a knockout win over Thomas Almeida earlier this year. Now 13-1 in his career, O’Malley is one of the most hyped prospects in the men’s bantamweight division.
On the other side, Moutinho is a low-level opponent with a 9-4 professional record. Moutinho just fought on May 28th of this year, but he submitted a 6-6 prospect in Andrew Salas. O’Malley already sat as a -400 favorite over Smolka. Facing an even worse opponent, O’Malley checks in at -800. From a striking perspective, O’Malley is one of the best kickboxers in the division. O’Malley lands 6.31 significant strikes per minute with just 3.28 absorbed. Moutinho has already been knocked out twice on the regional scene, despite his youthful age of 28. O’Malley also has nine of his 13 professional wins occurring via knockout. Moutinho has three knockout wins himself, but outclassing O’Malley on the feet looks unlikely.
On the mat, O’Malley also draws a step down in competition. Smolka had a strong background in wrestling and judo, whereas Moutinho is questionable everywhere. O’Malley has 60% takedown defense himself but continues to improve on the mat. O’Malley has a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and previously represented the UFC in a Quintet Ultra grappling event. Moutinho has an additional two losses by submission, potentially ceding another edge to O’Malley here.
For DFS, O’Malley is priced way up at $9,500. However, he is -350 to finish this fight on top of being a -800 favorite overall. Also extremely aggressive as a striker, O’Malley is still the top option above $9,000 and it is not particularly close. Moutinho is reserved as a contrarian option for large-field tournaments. O’Malley is the official pick here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: O’Malley ($9,500)
Condit vs. Griffin
As one of many fights in the men’s welterweight division, Carlos Condit takes on Max Griffin. Coming off a two-fight winning streak over Court McGee and Matt Brown, Condit had dropped his previous five fights. Also on a two-fight winning streak over Ramiz Brahimaj and Song Kenan, Griffin had lost four of his last five before his streak.
Both fighters are over the age of 35, but a late-career run is not out of the question for either. Condit has an extensive MMA background, including training in kickboxing, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He trains out of Jackson Wink MMA, alongside some of the best training partners in the world. On the feet, he lands 3.63 significant strikes per minute, with poor 39% accuracy. Both fighters have 56% striking defense, but Griffin’s kickboxing background poses a potential problem for Condit. Griffin lands 4.14 significant strikes per minute, compared to 3.94 significant strikes absorbed.
Neither fighter spends much time on the mat, but Griffin also looks like the more aggressive fighter on the ground. Condit averages 0.62 takedowns per bout, compared to Griffin’s 1.70. However, Condit relied more on his wrestling against Brown in his most recent fight. Condit landed two takedowns against the superior grappler, showing growth in the cage.
Defensively, Condit has 39% takedown defense, which creates an avenue for Griffin to steal rounds. Griffin is not much of a submission threat, with only two of his 17 wins occurring via submission. However, Condit has been submitted six times already, displaying another potential weakness. Even with volume favoring Griffin, he must be careful of Condit’s finishing power. In his career, Condit has 15 wins by knockout and 13 by submission, leaving only two decisions. Griffin also has nine knockouts and a pair of submissions. Even with the finishing prowess on both sides, bookmakers still put this fight at -200 to get to a decision.
For DFS, this fight has a middling pace and a middling price tag. At $8,700 Griffin looks like the more well-rounded fighter, but Condit is dangerous as well. Splitting exposure in DFS is not a bad idea, but Griffin is the official pick here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Max Griffin ($8,700)
Price vs. Pereira
Sticking with the men’s welterweight division, Niko Price battles Michel Pereira on the prelims in a get-right spot. Price’s record in the UFC sits at 6-4-2 with a pair of no contests. After a win over James Vick in 2019 fights have not gone Price’s way. Price lost a close battle against Vicente Luque after a doctor’s stoppage. Price landed 129 strikes to Luque’s 130. Then Price fought Donald Cerrone to a draw after judges took a point away from him for repeated eye pokes. The fight was ultimately ruled a no-contest after Price tested positive for marijuana. After all that turbulence, he faces a 3-2 (UFC record) Pereira coming off a pair of wins against Zelim Imadaev and Khaos Williams.
On the feet, Price is far more aggressive. Fighting with a kickboxing background, Price lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute with 5.83 strikes absorbed. This negative striking ratio shows up in his 49% striking and three knockout losses. On the other side, Pereira has a black belt in karate and lands 3.74 significant strikes per minute, with only 2.84 significant strikes absorbed. Price does have a three-inch reach advantage, potentially helping him here.
On the mat, Pereira has a distinct edge. A black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Pereira averages 1.76 takedowns with 70% accuracy. He also has 100% takedown defense. Price averages just 0.89 takedowns with 22% accuracy. However, he also has a strong 72% takedown defense, potentially nullifying Pereira’s biggest advantage. Pereira has landed at least one takedown in each of his last four fights, while Price has not been taken down in any of his last three.
To this point, Price has the superior level of competition, but he has already shown signs of decreased durability. He has been knocked out three times and submitted once. However, he also possesses power with ten knockouts and three submissions in 14 wins. Pereira has already fought professionally 38 times at 27-years old. He has been knocked out once and submitted once, but 17 of his 25 victories finished early (10 KO, 7 submissions). An x-factor in this fight could be cardio if the fight lasts past the first two rounds. Price has displayed elite cardio and output into the third on numerous occasions, while Pereira has faded at times.
For DFS purposes, Price is far more aggressive as a fighter. Fortunately, this forward pressure should force Pereira to engage more than normal. Price is also one of the better overall values. At +145, he has shorter odds than more expensive fighters on this card. Conversely, Pereira looks expensive for his -170 odds and inferior strength of schedule. At $7,300, Price is a bargain and the official pick in this bout.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Niko Price ($7,300)
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Hall vs Topuria
A featured early prelim bout, Ryan Hall takes on Ilia Topuria in the men’s featherweight division. One of the most interesting fighters in the UFC, Hall has an 8-1 professional record. At age 36, Hall has not fought since 2019 when he defeated Darren Elkins. Often battling injury or struggling to find opponents, Hall has just four fights since 2015. He has a perfect 4-0 record in that span.
On the other side, Topuria is a perfect 10-0 at 24-years of age. He has two fights within the UFC, defeating Youssef Zalal on short notice and Damon Jackson. From a striking perspective, Hall is one of the least aggressive strikers on this card. He lands just 2.32 significant strikes per minute with 43% accuracy. However, he also absorbs just 0.96 with 75% striking defense. Despite being considered one of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners in the division he averages just 0.31 takedowns per bout with 16% accuracy.
On the other side, Topuria is also non-aggressive as a striker. He lands 2.50 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 1.87 with 68% striking defense. Even with the lack of output, Topuria is known for his strong boxing skills. On the mat, he is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He averages 4.25 takedowns with 55% accuracy. He has 100% takedown defense, while Hall has never faced a takedown attempt in the UFC. Even though Topuria may look like the superior fighter on the mat, Hall is a veteran of over 300 pure grappling matches. A third-degree black belt, Hall’s experience likely gives him the edge on the ground. Professionally, Hall has eight total wins with two knockouts and three submissions. Likewise, Topuria has ten wins with two knockouts and seven submissions. He displayed his power in his most recent win when he knocked out Jackson. While Hall can submit almost anyone, this still likely requires getting the fight to the mat. While Topuria excels in Brazilian jiu-jitsu as well, his best path to victory includes solid takedown defense and using his advantages in the standup game. This fight is +125 to get to a decision, with both fighters showing solid pace throughout their careers.
For DFS, Topuria is appropriately priced at $9,100 for a -230 favorite. This makes Hall’s $7,100 price tag appropriate as well. However, Hall has a legitimate path to beating Topuria and a decent chance for a finish at +320. While risky, Hall and his elite jiu-jitsu get it done here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Ryan Hall ($7,100)
Giles vs. du Plessis
Kicking off the prelims, Trevin Giles looks to continue his three-fight winning streak over Dricus Du Plessis. To this point, both fighters only have two losses in their careers. Giles dropped a pair of bouts in 2019 to Zak Cummings and Gerald Meerschaert before rattling off three straight victories. His most recent win came over Roman Dolidze in what was largely a staring match.
On the other side, Du Plessis won his UFC debut over Markus Perez via knockout last October. Still just 28 years old, Giles has displayed a well-rounded game in mixed martial arts. While relatively non-aggressive, Giles absorbs only 1.88 significant strikes for every 3.26 inflicted. To this point his 62% striking defense is excellent. He throws good combinations with solid hand speed but does not often implement kicks.
On the other side, du Plessis is a second-degree blackbelt in kickboxing. While he only has one fight on his UFC profile, his 7.72 significant strikes landed speaks to his overall volume. He is tall and rangy for the division, but only has a one-inch height and two-inch reach advantage over the sizable Giles. Du Plessis has also displayed a formidable ground game on the regional scene. He has nine wins by submission, compared to six wins by knockout. None of his fights have ever gone to a decision. Giles is solid on the ground himself. He averages 1.37 takedowns per bout and possesses 79% takedown defense. Also seldom letting fights get to a decision, Giles has six wins by knockout and five by submission in 14 total victories. Giles is also a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
After opening at even odds, du Plessis is now favored at -125. This makes his $8,200 appropriate. The same goes for Giles as a slight underdog. Both fighters have solid volume, but this fight likely spends most of the time standing up. At +100 to reach a decision, mixing exposure to both fighters looks to be wise. The official pick will be Trevin Giles with his experience in the UFC.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Trevin Giles ($8,000)
Maia vs. Eye
Moving to the women’s flyweight division, two former title challengers will face off between Jennifer Maia and Jessica Eye. Maia has an 18-7-1 professional record and sits at 3-3 in the UFC. Starved for title contenders in the flyweight division, Maia’s most recent bout came against Valentina Shevchenko for a title. She lost via unanimous decision but looked solid in Round 1. In her two prior fights, she lost to Katlyn Chookagian but defeated Joanne Calderwood.
On the other side, Eye is 15-9-1 professionally, with a 5-8-1 UFC record. She also lost to Shevchenko back in 2018. Since then, she is 1-2, losing her two most recent bouts against Cynthia Calvillo and Calderwood. Both still rank in the top seven of the division. On the feet, Maia lands 3.34 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.52. She is a black belt in Muay Thai, but still has a negative striking ratio. Eye also has a negative striking ratio, landing 3.76 significant strikes for every 4.01 absorbed. However, this ratio is heavily influenced by her two most recent bouts. She lost the striking battle 113-70 to Calvillo and 148-77 to Calderwood.
On the mat, Maia is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. She only lands 0.34 takedowns on average, but she has five professional wins by submission. Eye also lands only 0.45 takedowns per bout. Neither fighter has attempted many takedowns at the UFC level. However, neither fighter has a particularly strong takedown defense here. Maia defends at 56% compared to Eye’s 57% defense. Overall, Maia looks to have the more well-rounded game against Eye’s basic striking style. Eye has participated in grappling tournaments of late, but she has struggled to implement that into her game.
At $8,800 and $7,400, Maia and Eye are appropriately priced. However, this fight lags behind a number of others in projected pace. Similarly, it is -250 to reach a decision, making a finish unlikely. While Eye is fine for large field contrarian lineups, Maia brings significant opportunity cost among expensive fighters. Maia is the official pick, but she is best left for large-field tournaments in DFS.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Jennifer Maia ($8,900)
Akhmedov vs. Tavares
A slight underdog, Omari Akhmedov faces Brad Tavares in the men’s middleweight division. Now 33 years old, Akhmedov is 21-5-1 in his career. He is 4-1 in the UFC since 2019, going 1-1 in his most recent bouts. Last year he dropped a decision to Chris Weidman before submitting Tom Breese in January this year.
On the other side, 33-year-old Tavares is 18-6 in his career and 1-2 in his last three. However, those losses came to Israel Adesanya and Edmen Shahbazyan. He defeated Antonio Carlos Junior in his most recent fight this January. One of the more accomplished fighters outside of MMA, Akhmedov has a background in wrestling, sambo, and Russian hand-to-hand combat.
When these guys are on their feet, Akhmedov averages 2.95 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.59. His 35% striking accuracy leaves a little to be desired but still has seven wins by knockout. On the other side, Tavares is also a fairly non-aggressive striker. He lands 3.04 significant strikes compared to 2.73 strikes absorbed. Both fighters use their striking in different ways though. Akhmedov strikes to clinch before trying to bring his opponents to the mat. Tavares is a well-rounded striker and should have a technical advantage here.
On the mat, Akhmedov’s wrestling background shows up in his 2.63 takedowns landed per bout. Tavares averages 0.97 takedowns himself and has 79% takedown defense. Tavares does not really hunt submissions, while Akhmedov averages 0.3 per bout. Both fighters tend to let their fights go to the judges. Akhmedov has eight of 21 wins by decision. Prior to his most recent submission win over Breese, Akhmedov had seven straight fights reach a decision. Tavares has 11 of his 18 wins coming via decision as well, including 11 of his 13 wins in the UFC. He is tied for most decision wins in middleweight history.
Both fighters have been knocked out multiple times, but this fight looks more likely than not to reach a decision. Unlike Tavares, Akhmedov has shown questionable cardio at times. Conversely, Tavares is the king of cardio within this division. For DFS, Akhmedov likely needs a finish to win and subsequently pay off his $7,600. Conversely, Tavares is an affordable favorite at $8,600 and aggressive enough to potentially pay off his salary here. Brad Tavares is the official pick here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Brad Tavares ($8,600)
Pinpoint The Top Fighters for UFC DFS Awesemo’s UFC DFS Top Fighter Tool for DraftKings and FanDuel synthesizes our MMA DFS Projections and Ownership Projections to help you build competitive UFC DFS tournament lineups. The Top Fighters Tool is designed to help you simplify this information to compare a player’s ownership with their chances of being a top-scoring fighter on that slate.Zhumagulov vs. Rivera
In the men’s flyweight division, Zhalgas Zhumagulov faces Jerome Rivera in a get-right spot for both competitors. Both fighters enter this contest on losing streaks. Zhumagulov sits at 0-2 in the UFC after losing decisions to Raulian Paiva and Amir Albazi. Rivera is on a three-fight losing streak himself, dropping bouts to Tyson Nam, Francisco Figueiredo, and Ode Osbourne. Rivera is again fighting at flyweight after dabbling at 135 and 145 pounds in the UFC. Zhumagulov is aggressive and fairly well-rounded as a fighter. He lands 4.17 significant strikes per minute, absorbing 4.00.
On the other side, Rivera has a background in kickboxing and wrestling. The less aggressive fighter overall, Rivera lands 3.08 significant strikes per minute with 2.47 strikes absorbed. Rivera throws a lot of kicks, which hurt Zhumagulov in his most recent fight against Albazi. This could be a weapon Rivera utilizes early here. Rivera’s length could be a weapon here.
When these guys are on the mat, Zhumagulov is also the more aggressive fighter. He lands 1.50 takedowns on average with 21% accuracy. Rivera is currently 0-10 on takedown attempts in the UFC, but Zhumagulov only defends them at 33%. Rivera defends them at 40% himself, meaning this fight likely hits the mat at some point. While Zhumagulov likes to bring fights to the mat, he has little submission upside. Just one of his 13 professional wins occurred via submission.
On the other hand, Rivera has seven of his ten professional wins coming via submission. Overall, Zhumagulov is the more technical striker and superior wrestler, but Rivera has advantages with his length and submission ability. For DFS, this is a fight with a middling pace and -200 to reach a decision. A low-level fighter overall, Zhumagulov is the riskiest fighter above $9,000. However, he is still -330 to win this fight making his $9,300 price tag efficient. A Rivera upset is conceivable, making him playable in large-field tournaments. However, he is still the second-least likely to win on this card. Zhalgas Zhumagulov is the official pick here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Zhalgas Zhumagulov ($9,300)
Yaozong vs. Amedovski
Kicking off UFC 264, Hu Yaozong faces Alen Amedovski in the men’s middleweight division. A lower-level fighter in the UFC, Yaozong has a 3-2 professional record. He is 0-2 at the UFC level with losses to Cyril Asker and Rashad Coulter. However, after his early struggles, Yaozong has not fought since November 2018. Yaozong did serve a 10-month USADA suspension in 2019, but he has been largely inactive. This will also be his first fight at middleweight after previously competing at heavyweight and light heavyweight. Reportedly, he will also be entering the states late without his coaching staff due to Visa issues.
On the other side, Amedovski also comes off a long layoff. Last fighting in September of 2019, Amedovski landed a six-month marijuana suspension but has been otherwise inactive. A former Bellator fighter, Amedovski is 0-2 since joining the UFC. He lost to Krzysztof Jotko in his debut, followed by a knockout loss at the hands of John Phillips.
From a striking perspective, Yaozong has a background in Muay Thai. He lands 4.43 significant strikes compared to 5.23 strikes absorbed. His 38% striking defense needs to be improved in order to stay in the UFC. Amedovski is known for his striking, but he lands just 0.52 significant strikes at the UFC level. This number is largely the result of the sample size. In his debut, Jotko took Amedovski down four times and controlled him for over nine minutes. In the second fight against Phillips, he was knocked out in 17 seconds. Fighting superior competition to Yaozong, Amedovski may actually possess the striking edge despite the inferior statistics.
On the mat, neither fighter has landed a takedown. Yaozong is 0-1 on takedown attempts and Amedovski has never attempted one. Both fighters have allowed four takedowns in their career and never successfully defended a takedown at the UFC level. Yaozong wrestled a bit on the regional scene but has not found success in the UFC.
This is an extremely low-level fight, but Amedovski has the superior strength of schedule to date. While this fight +163 to reach a decision, paying $9,000 for Amedovski looks questionable. He is just -135 overall. With Yaozong at +1115, he could be one of the better underdogs on this card. With that said, the winner likely scores well, due to a high pace and strong chance for a finish. Amedovski is the official pick here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Alen Amedovski ($9,000)
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