With UFC returning to action this weekend, UFC Vegas 36 features Derek Brunson taking on Darren Till in the men’s middleweight division. This weekly Fight Analysis article will analyze every matchup on the card. Below you will find data-driven analysis for each matchup and a pick to win. This, along with Awesemo’s MMA DFS projections, Top Fighters Tool and UFC DFS ownership projections will help us make the most informed UFC DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel MMA lineups.
UFC Vegas 36: Brunson vs. Till MMA DFS Picks
Derek Brunson vs. Darren Till
Headlining UFC Vegas 36, Till faces Brunson as a -185 favorite in the men’s middleweight division. Till is 18-3-1 in his career. After a red-hot start in the UFC, Till is now 1-3 in his most recent fights. In that span, he lost to some of the division’s best in Tyron Woodley, Jorge Masvidal and Robert Whittaker. His only win came against Kelvin Gastelum back in 2019. On the other side, Brunson is 22-7 in his career. Making a resurgence of late, Brunson is 4-0 since 2019 with wins over Elias Theodorou, Ian Heinisch, Edmen Shahbazyan, and Kevin Holland. On the feet Till is an experienced kickboxer, but a relatively non-aggressive striker. He lands 2.27 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.99. Till has never landed more than 49 significant strikes in any UFC fight, losing the striking battle in each of his last three outings. Similarly, Brunson is not known as an aggressive striker. He lands 3.46 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 2.72. Till will have a three-inch reach advantage on the feet. On the mat Brunson wrestled in college and possesses a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Brunson averages 3.11 takedowns per bout. Till has 82% takedown defense and a background in wrestling himself. He rarely uses it outside of takedown defense. He averages just 0.54 takedowns per bout. Brunson has 94% takedown defense and projects to be the aggressor in grappling exchanges. Till has been taken down at least once in each of his last three fights. This fight is not likely for a finish. Brunson is the more aggressive fighter with 15 of his 22 wins occurring via finish. Till has six decision victories in 18 professional wins. However, both fighters have recently allowed more fights to get to the judges. This bout is +150 to reach a decision. For DFS purposes, this is one of the least exciting main events. Till’s low output makes him somewhat reliant on a finish. On platforms like DraftKings, his lack of grappling also stands out. Conversely, Brunson is far more aggressive, but much less likely to get the win. Till is the official pick, but Brunson is the superior DFS play and an underdog to look at here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Darren Till ($8,800)
Tom Aspinall vs. Sergey Spivak
A fight taking place in the men’s heavyweight division, Tom Aspinall takes on late replacement Sergey Spivak in the event’s co-main event. Aspinall is 10-2 in his career and undefeated in the UFC. He has wins over Jake Collier, Alan Baudot and Andrei Arlovski. One of his losses occurred via disqualification after a knee to a downed fighter. On the other side, Spivak has a 13-2 professional record. After losing to Marcin Tybura to kick off 2020, he rattled off three straight wins against Carlos Felipe, Jared Vanderaa and Aleksei Oleinik. Aspinall is one of the more well-rounded prospects in the heavyweight division. He has a boxing background and lands 7.43 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.06. This ridiculous positive striking ratio comes from his small time in the cage. Aspinall has finished all three of his UFC opponents, giving him a relatively small sample. Spivak is a far less aggressive striker despite his solid boxing, landing 3.85 significant strikes per minute, with 50% accuracy. Aspinall should have the technical and power advantage when striking. On the mat Aspinall is also dangerous. He is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and lands 3.54 takedowns on average. Spivak is a solid wrestler himself with Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills, averaging 2.83 takedowns. Spivak has 70% takedown defense, while Aspinall has never had to defend a takedown at the UFC level. However, Spivak has struggled on the mat against some of the division’s better grapplers, including Tybura. Overall, this fight has immense finish potential. Spivak only has two of his 13 wins coming via decision, while Aspinall has never gone to a decision. This fight is +215 for a finish, with Aspinall -165 inside the distance. He is not quite the same value as Jack Shore, but he is close. Aspinall is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Tom Aspinall ($9,000)
Alex Morono vs. David Zawada
A fight taking place in the men’s light heavyweight division, Alex Morono faces David Zawada as a -135 favorite. Morono has a 19-7-1 professional record. Morono is 2-2 inside the UFC since the start of 2020. He dropped fights to Khaos Williams and Anthony Pettis, while knocking off Rhys McKee and Donald Cerrone. Similarly, Zawada has a 17-6 professional record. Zawada is 1-3 in the UFC with losses to Danny Roberts, Li Jingliang, and Ramazan Emeev. His only victory came over Abubakar Nurmagomedov. On the feet Morono has a background in kickboxing. He lands 5.04 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.69. Conversely, Zawada enters this bout with a negative striking ratio. He lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.07. This has come at the hands of strong competition. On the mat Morono is a second-degree Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with strong wrestling skills. He only lands 0.43 takedowns on average, but Zawada’s takedown defense sits at 57%. Similarly, Zawada averages 0.96 takedowns. Morono has 52% takedown defense himself, but he is comfortable once fights hit the mat. Overall, this fight is -150 to reach a decision. Morono has 11 decisions in 26 fights. Conversely, Zawada has five decisions in 23 fights. For DFS, Zawada has taken significant money since this fight opened, making Morono one of the most overpriced fighters on the slate. However, this fight has excellent output on both sides, making it a strong target for DFS. With the uncertain nature of the bout, Zawada will be the official pick as an underdog.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: David Zawada ($7,500)
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Khalil Rountree
Another bout in the men’s light heavyweight division, Modestas Bukauskas faces Khalil Rountree as a -150 favorite. Bukauskas will enter this fight with an 11-4 professional record. Bukauskas is 1-2 in the UFC. He defeated Andreas Michailidis in his UFC debut, but subsequently lost two straight to Jimmy Crute and Michal Oleksiejczuk. On the other side, Rountree is 8-5-1 professionally, but 1-2 in his last three. He defeated Eryk Anders but lost to Ion Cutelaba and Marcin Prachnio most recently. On the feet Bukauskas is a strong striker despite his negative striking ratio. He lands 3.77 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.36. Rountree also has a negative striking ratio but is known for his striking. He lands 3.06 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.63. Neither fighter has landed a takedown at the UFC level, suggesting this fight will be a standing affair. Rountree has clear knockout power and that is displayed in the +180 decision prop in the fight. Five of his eight wins have come via knockout. Meanwhile, only one of Bukauskas’ 11 professional wins has reached a decision. Both fighters have been finished multiple times. For DFS, this looks like a middling fight that is somewhat reliant on a finish. Bukauskas is appropriately priced at $8,500 as the favorite and more active fighter of the two. However, Rountree’s finishing ability makes him a strong underdog to target in DFS. Bukauskas is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Modestas Bukauskas ($8,500)
Paddy Pimblett vs. Luigi Vendramini
Taking place in the men’s lightweight division, UFC newcomer Paddy Pimblett takes on Luigi Vendramini as a -155 favorite. Despite making his first appearance in the UFC, Pimblett is already a hyped prospect. Pimblett is 16-3 in his career. Previously turning down a UFC contract, Pimblett has faced notable competition on the regional scene. His two most recent losses came at the hands of UFC fighter Nad Narimani and 14-1 prospect Soren Bak. On the other side, Vendramini is 9-2 in his professional career, but fresh off a close loss to Fares Ziam. Prior to that, he defeated Jessin Ayari in October of 2020. On the feet Vendramini has a background in Muay Thai and solid volume. He lands 2.26 significant strikes per minute, which is damaged by his poor 37% striking accuracy. However, he is also aggressive on the mat with 0.67 takedowns per bout, landed at an 8% clip. While he has struggled to get takedowns at times, he has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu to utilize in grappling exchanges. Similarly, Pimblett is a younger, developing prospect at this point in his career. Despite the hype, he is still improving as a striker. Pimblett is primarily known for his ground game so far in his MMA career. He has 16 professional wins and seven of those occurred via submission. This creates an interesting stylistic matchup against Vendramini, who has shown excellent grappling in situations with the UFC. Bookmakers also peg this fight at +130 to reach a decision, giving it excellent finish potential. At just $8,300, Pimblett is one of the better fighters to target in DFS this weekend. Already aggressive, both fighters like to utilize their ground games. Similarly, Vendramini is an excellent target for those looking at underdog fighters with upside. Ultimately, the hype is real and Pimblett gets the job done here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Paddy Pimblett ($8,300)
Molly McCann vs. Ji Yeon Kim
A fight taking place in the women’s flyweight division, Molly McCann takes on Ji Yeon Kim as a -105 underdog. McCann is 10-4 in her professional career. After defeating Ariane Lipski and Diana Belbita, McCann has lost two straight bouts to Talia Santos and Lara Procopio. Similarly, Kim is 9-3-2 in her career. Most recently, she defeated Nadia Kassem before dropping a bout to Alexa Grasso last August. On the feet McCann is a solid boxer, landing 5.15 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.28. Kim is a well-rounded fighter with a background in multiple disciplines. She has a negative striking ratio, featuring 4.50 significant strikes landed to 4.94 significant strikes absorbed. Interestingly, she seldom throws kicks despite a background in kickboxing. She is more of a counter striker, which creates an interesting situation against McCann. Kim has an immense ten-inch reach advantage here. On the mat McCann is a somewhat active wrestler. She lands 1.64 takedowns per bout with 29% accuracy. Neither fighter has strong takedown defense. Kim checks in at 42% and McCann sits at 28%. However, McCann looks more likely to initiate grappling exchanges if they occur at all. Kim has never landed a takedown in the UFC. One of the weirder fights on this card, bookmakers peg it at -360 to reach a decision. This immediately makes it one of the least attractive fights for DFS. Both fighters also prefer to stand and trade, which does not score as well as grappling. Neither fighter is a particularly strong target for DFS, but someone has to win. In contrarian builds, Kim looks like a solid option with her reach advantage at -115 to win. However, the odds could flip at any moment and McCann has better volume overall. For that reason, McCann is the official pick in a likely decision.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Molly McCann ($8,000)
Jack Shore vs. Liudvik Sholinian
Moving to the men’s bantamweight division, Jack Shore fights late replacement Liudvik Sholinian as a -575 favorite. Shore is one of the brighter young stars in this division. He is 14-0 in his career and 3-0 at the UFC level with wins over Nohelin Hernandez, Aaron Phillips and Hunter Azure. Sholinian is 9-1-1 in his career. This will be his UFC debut, but Sholinian has some notable wins, including names like Vince Cachero. On the feet Shore has a positive striking ratio, landing 3.14 significant strikes, while absorbing 1.61. However, he uses his striking primarily to get up his ground game. Shore is an excellent wrestler with elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills. He lands 5.52 takedowns per bout with 57% accuracy. He is also a fighter who utilizes intense ground-and-pound to either finish opponents or soften them for a submission. Sholinian is like Shore in many ways. He is a former Ukrainian national wrestler, with strong grappling. The UFC appears to be high of Sholinian after already giving him a shot on the Ultimate Fighter earlier this year. Sholinian lost to Ricky Turcios but gets the quick call back here. Ultimately, Sholinian does a lot well, but Shore does them better. This fight is +100 to reach a decision and Shore is -105 to win this fight inside the distance. Because of the grappling, this fight is an excellent target for DFS. As a -575 favorite, Shore is the easy cash option and still very strong in tournaments. Using a contrarian approach is the only reason to avoid Shore here. Sholinian provides immense leverage, but Shore is the official pick here.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Jack Shore ($9,100)
Julian Erosa vs. Charles Jourdain
Julian Erosa faces Charles Jourdain as a +155 underdog. Erosa has a professional record of 25-9. Now in his third stint with the promotion, Erosa most recently defeated Sean Woodson and Nate Landwehr before getting knocked out by Seung Woo Choi in the first round in June. This will be a quick return to the Octagon for Erosa. Conversely, Jourdain is 11-3-1 in his career, defeating Marcelo Rojo in his most recent fight. Prior to that, He lost to Andre Fili, before fighting Josh Culibao to a draw. Both fighters are very aggressive strikers here. Jourdain has a background in boxing, landing 4.79 significant striker per minute. Erosa is also an aggressive striker, landing 5.10 significant strikes, while absorbing 5.78. Both fighters have excellent cardio and forward pressure. Erosa does have a four-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over Jourdain. On the mar, Erosa will mix in takedowns. He lands 1.29 per bout, which could exploit Jourdain’s 47% takedown defense. However, Jourdain’s takedown defense looks to have potentially improved of late. He successfully defended seven takedowns against Culibao in his second-most recent fight. Jourdain has never landed a takedown himself in the UFC and projects to keep this fight standing. Overall, this fight is +165 to reach a decision. Volume and the high likelihood for a finish, make Jourdain another strong option at the top of pricing. He also projects to come with lower ownership than the heavy favorites. Conversely, Erosa volume and wild fight style give him a path to victory in any bout. While unlikely, a win for Erosa likely means a strong DFS score. However, Jourdain is the official pick here over a fighter in Erosa, who was brutally knocked out two-short months ago.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Charles Jourdain ($8,900)
Dalcha Lungiambula vs. Marc-Andre Barriault
A fight taking place in the men’s middleweight division, Dalcha Lungiambula faces Marc-Andre Barriault as a +140 underdog. Lungiambula has an 11-2 professional record. He is 2-1 in the UFC with wins over Dequan Townsend and Markus Perez. His only loss came to Magomed Ankalaev. On the other side, Barriault has a 12-4-1 professional record. He is 1-3-1 in the UFC with a no-contest against Oskar Piechota and a win over Abu Azaitar in his most recent fights. His no contest was a win but switched after a positive drug test. On the feet Lungiambula has a negative striking ratio, featuring 1.85 significant strikes landed to 2.27 significant strikes absorbed. Conversely, Barriault has aggressive striking, landing 5.36 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 4.79. Barriault has the volume advantage, while Lungiambula has clear knockout power. On the mat Lungiambula has a background in judo. He lands 2.07 takedowns per bout, while Barriault only lands 0.43. Both fighters have strong takedown defense at 72% and 75% respectively. Barriault did struggle with takedowns earlier in the UFC, allowing multiple to Jun Yong Park and Andrew Sanchez. Lungiambula has a path to victory via grappling or with his knockout power. The problem is his terrible cardio. If Barriault can withstand Lungiambula’s initial barrage, he has a good chance of out-striking Lungiambula in the later rounds. With that said, this fight is +110 to reach a decision. For DFS, Barriault is going to be a strong option at $8,400. He has the same or better odds of winning than more expensive fighters in Jonathan Martinez and Alex Morono, with a decent shot at a finish. Lungiambula is also appropriately priced for an underdog with a good chance for a finish. Barriault is the official pick.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Marc-Andre Barriault ($8,400)
Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcelo Rojo
A fight taking place in the men’s bantamweight division, Jonathan Martinez battles Marcelo Rojo as a -165 favorite. Martinez has a 13-4 professional record. He is 2-2 since the start of 2020 with wins over Frankie Saenz and Thomas Almeida and losses to Andre Ewell and Davey Grant. Conversely, Rojo has a 16-7 professional record. He only has one fight at the UFC level, which ended in a loss to Charles Jourdain on short notice. However, that fight is a contender for fight of the year. On the feet Martinez is a Muay Thai striker, who lands 4.27 significant strikes per minute, while absorbing 3.81. Despite his positive ratio, he does have a few defensive issues. Rojo is also a strong striker. He is reliant more on volume than power, evidenced by his 5.10 significant strikes landed in his debut against Jourdain. Rojo also lands 1.03 takedowns per bout, which exploits Martinez’s 63% takedown defense. Martinez lands 0.48 takedowns himself and could find himself susceptible on the ground. Rojo has Brandon Moreno as one of his notable training partners. Overall, this fight is -110 to reach a decision, giving it solid finish potential. In DFS, this fight is a strong target based on output. Martinez is appropriately priced at $8,600, as is Rojo. Rojo performed extremely well in a short notice debut against a notable opponent. Rojo also mixes in a diverse array of strikes, helping his output. With the low-level nature of the fight, Rojo is the official pick despite coming off a loss. Either way, this fight is a strong target for DFS purposes.
UFC DFS Pick for DraftKings & FanDuel MMA: Marcelo Rojo ($7,600)
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