Welcome to The Heaters. For each UFC card, I will provide three wild UFC betting picks that I find interesting. This week we’re looking at the MMA odds for UFC Vegas 19: Blaydes vs. Lewis.
Darrick Minner is taking on Charles Rosa in what should be a good fight for as long as it lasts. Minner has a finish rate of 92%, while Rosa has a finish rate of 85%. Minner is a reckless fighter, who throws caution to the wind in hopes of finishing the fight early. If Minner is unable to get his opponents out of there early, you notice a significant drop-off in cardio and performance. Facing off against a blackbelt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu be a tough task since no one has been able to submit Rosa. Bryce Mitchell was able to control Rosa with excellent top position en route to a dominant victory, but Minner shouldn’t be able to replicate that performance. Minner has been so reckless at times that in his 11defeats he has been submitted eight times and TKO’d twice. I am favoring Rosa in this matchup, and with Minner’s fast-tap nature, the under 2.5 is a safe play.
In a striker’s delight we have Nate Landwehr taking on Julian Erosa. Both men enjoy trading shots on the feet, but have different styles. Landwehr will march his opponents down and throw aggressive combinations, while Erosa will depend more on movement and pop-shotting his opponents. Over the years Erosa has bounced in and out of the promotion, but he has showed promise when given an unproven challenger. In this matchup against Landwehr, I think it’s a difficult fight for Erosa. Landwehr will close the distance, throw caution to the wind and maintain a consistent pace that breaks opponents. Erosa has shown a susceptibility to being knocked out, as he has been knocked out five times in his career.
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Eddie Wineland is looking to rebound from a highlight-reel knockout loss to Sean O’Malley, and is now facing UFC newcomer John Castaneda. I wasn’t impressed with Castaneda in his debut loss to Nathaniel Wood, who is a highly regarded prospect. It’s tough to determine if Castaneda is UFC level, but he is facing a true veteran who has seen it all in the cage. Wineland at one time was dominating opposition with unorthodox striking and impressive power for the division. It’s hard for me to believe Castaneda can do enough to win this fight since he would need to minimize damage on the feet and look to take Wineland down. I understand that Wineland is an aging veteran, so I’m not fully backing the idea that he will knock Castaneda out. I believe Wineland winning convincingly on the scorecards is the more likely outcome, and at plus money, that’s a bonus.
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