UFC DFS Picks, Projections & Predictions for UFC 261 Usman vs. Masvidal on DraftKings + FanDuel

Welcome to Inside the Octagon, UFC fans. This weekend there is a 12-fight card at Jacksonville Arena, including a main event between Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal. The main GPP has $200,000 going to first place with a total of $750,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks and analysis for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups this week.

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UFC DFS Picks | UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal

Danaa Batgerel ($8,500) vs. Kevin Natividad ($7,700)

Danaa Batgerel

Age: 31
Height: 5-foot-6
Weight: 135 lbs.
Reach: 70 ins.
Record: 8-2-0
Striking Accuracy: 38%
Betting Odds: -190

Batgerel is coming into this matchup off an impressive left-hook knockout over Guido Cannetti in August. He has solid power in his hands, and his left hook is extremely dangerous when landed cleanly. Batgerel will move forward with pressure and use his feints and fakes to set up his power punches. He has four wins via knockout, two via submission and wins via decision. Batgerel will bring an aggressive attack with solid counter punches, while looking to set up his devastating left hook. He should look to keep this fight standing and use his power striking to pick Natividad apart.

Kevin Natividad

Age: 28
Height: 5-foot-5
Weight: 145 lbs.
Reach: 70 ins.
Record: 9-2-0
Striking Accuracy: 24%
Betting Odds: +160

Natividad is coming into this matchup off a knockout loss against Miles Johns in October. He has solid boxing skills and nice speed but has trouble with accuracy on his punches. Natividad will need to get his takedowns going to have a shot at victory. However, Batgerel has solid takedown defense and is extremely good at keeping the fight standing. Natividad has five wins via knockout, one via submission and three via decision. He will look to get this fight to the mat, which will be his best shot at victory.

The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Batgerel. His solid counter striking and nasty left hook will land on Natividad’s suspect chin early.

UFC DFS Pick: Danaa Batgerel via First-Round KO/TKO.

Karl Roberson ($7,800) vs. Brenden Allen ($8,400)

Karl Roberson

Age: 30
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 185 lbs.
Reach: 74 ins
Record: 9-3-0
Striking Accuracy: 51%
Betting Odds: +135

Roberson is a solid striker with a dangerous submission attack. He will walk his opponents down while using his jab to inflict damage to his opponent. Roberson throws nasty leg kicks that will help slow his opponent down to set up takedowns. However, Roberson will look to keep this fight standing and avoid the ground attack of Allen. Roberson has two wins via knockout, four wins via submission and three via decision.

Brendan Allen

Age: 25
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 185 lbs.
Reach: 75 ins
Record: 15-4-0
Striking Accuracy: 59%
Betting Odds: -160

Allen has quite the resume since making his debut in the UFC back in 2019. He has defeated Kevin Holland, Tom Breese and Kyle Daukaus in that stretch. That said, Allen is coming off a knockout loss against Sean Strickland in November. Allen has five wins via knockout, eight wins via submission and two via decision. He has solid wrestling and an extremely dangerous submission game. Allen will look to get this fight to the mat, where he should have the advantage over Roberson.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Allen. However, this fight will be close and either fighter could get the finish. Allen should land takedowns early and test the ground game of Roberson.

UFC DFS Pick: Brendan Allen via Second-Round Submission.

Anthony Smith ($7,300) vs. Jimmy Crute ($8,900)

Anthony Smith

Age: 32
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 205 lbs.
Reach: 76 ins
Record: 34-16-0
Striking Accuracy: 46%
Betting Odds: +165

Smith is coming into this matchup off an impressive first-round submission win against Devin Clark in November. He is an aggressive fighter and a strong grappler, which he showed in his last bout. Smith has 18 wins via knockout, 13 via submission and two via decision. In this matchup, Smith will need to keep this fight standing and stay off his back. If he can keep Crute at distance and force him to come forward, Smith should be able to work behind his jab and counter punches to slow Crute’s attack.

Jimmy Crute

Age: 25
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 205 lbs.
Reach: 74 ins
Record: 12-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 57%
Betting Odds: -200)

Crute is coming into this matchup with impressive wins over Michal Oleksiejczuk via submission in February. He also won via knockout over Modestas Bukauskas October. Crute is a big powerful fighter and extremely aggressive when he steps into the Octagon. In fact, Crute is one of the more promising young light heavyweights and is very well trained. Crute has five wins via knockout, four wins via submission and three wins via decision. Crute will look to get this fight to the mat and inflict damage to smith. However, Crute will need to avoid the threat of a triangle from Smith.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Crute. However, this fight will be close, and either fighter could get the finish. That said, Crute could dominate the fight once it hits the mat. However, if building multiple lineups, have a few shares of Smith.

UFC DFS Pick: Jimmy Crute via Thrid-Round KO/TKO.

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Valentina Shevchenko ($9,500) vs. Jessica Andrade ($6,700)

Valentina Shevchenko

Age: 33
Height: 5-foot-4
Weight: 125 lbs.
Reach: 66.5 ins.
Record: 19-3-0
Striking Accuracy: 50%
Betting Odds: -450

Shevchenko is coming into this matchup fresh off a unanimous decision win against Jennifer Maia in November. She is currently riding a six-fight winning streak. Shevchenko is a well-rounded fighter with speed and precision, and she is a world kickboxing champion with masterful Muay Thai skills. She has six wins via knockout, seven via submission and seven via decision. Shevchenko is on another level in the flyweight division. She should pick Andrade apart with her counter striking and her ability to bring smothering pressure.

Jessica Andrade

Age: 29
Height: 5-foot-1
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 62 ins.
Record: 14-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 49%
Betting Odds: +340

Andrade is riding high after a first-round knockout against Katlyn Chookagian in her flyweight debut. She is a brawler in the Octagon and will bring heavy pressure. Furthermore, this style of fighting she brings inside the Octagon makes her extremely susceptible to being hit. In fact, Andrade has been knocked out three times in her career. She has eight wins via knockout, seven wins via submission and six via decision. Andrade to push the pace and bring heavy pressure in hopes of disrupting Shevchenko’s rhythm.

The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Shevchenko. However, Andrade is super dangerous on the feet with her high-pressure brawling style. If Andrade can get heavy pressure early and disrupt Shevchenko’s rhythm, she could possibly have a shot at the champion. Although, Shevchenko should dominate this fight.

UFC DFS Pick: Valentina Shevchenko via Third-Round KO/TKO.

Weili Zhang ($9,000) vs. Rose Namajunas ($7,200)

Weili Zhang

Age: 31
Height: 5-foot-3
Weight: 115 lbs.
Reach: 63 ins.
Record: 21-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 45%
Betting Odds: -225

Zhang is coming into this matchup off a brawl against Joanna Jedrzejczyk last March. In fact, that fight was named Fight of the Night. She brings relentless pressure and huge power inside the Octagon. Namajunas’ boxing and solid counter striking could cause Zhang some problems, though Zhang will have the power edge in this fight. Namajunas did show in her bout against Andrade that she did have the ability to handle big power. Zhang has 10 wins via knockout, seven wins via submission and four via submission.

Rose Namajunas

Age: 28
Height: 5-foot-4
Weight: 115 lbs.
Reach: 65 ins.
Record:10-4-0
Striking Accuracy: 40%
Betting Odds: +175

Namajunas is coming off a decision win against Jessica Andrade in July. She is a well-rounded fighter with excellent footwork and solid boxing skills. Namajunas has an extremely dangerous submission game, and she will be motivated to regain the strawweight title. Namajunas has one win via knockout, five via submission and three via submission. Namajunas should be the more skilled boxer and should have the better ground attack, which makes her a live underdog. Although, getting Zhang to the mat will be a huge task for Namajunas.

The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Zhang. However, Namajunas is super dangerous on the mat. If Namajunas can get this fight to the mat, she is live for a submission.

UFC DFS Pick: Weili Zhang via Unanimous Decision

Kamaru Usman ($9,400) vs. Jorge Masvidal ($6,800)

Kamaru Usman

Age: 33
Height: 6-foot-0
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 76 ins.
Record: 18-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 54%
Betting Odds: -400)

Usman is riding a 17-fight winning streak. He is coming into this matchup fresh off a knockout against Gilbert Burns. Usman has developed into an excellent striker with huge power, having won two of his last three fights via knockout against Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington. Usman is a takedown artist and will smother his opponents when he gets top control. He is a phenomenal athlete who can bully his opponents and break their will entirely. Usman has eight wins via knockout, one via submission and nine via decision. He will bring heavy pressure and look to break Masvidal’s will early while testing his chin often.

Jorge Masvidal

Age: 36
Height: 5-foot-9
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 74 ins.
Record: 35-14-0
Striking Accuracy: 47%
Betting Odds: +310

Masvidal is coming into this matchup off a decision loss to Usman in July. However, before the fight with Usman, Masvidal had three consecutive knockout wins over Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz. He is a dangerous and deadly striker. However, Masvidal’s weakness is his poor wresting and defending the takedown. He lands 4.33 significant strikers per minute and only absorbs 2.94 per minute. Masvidal has 16 wins via knockout, two via submission and 17 via decision. Masvidal will be much better prepared for this fight. However, Usman’s pressure will force Masvidal to fight off his back foot, which should create an opening for Usman to land heavy punches to finish Masvidal.

The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Usman, and he should dominate this fight. However, Masvidal is super dangerous with flying knees and wild elbows.

UFC DFS Pick: Kamaru Usman via Fourth-Round KO/TKO

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