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Inside The Octagon: UFC DFS Picks For DraftKings + FanDuel UFC 262 Oliveira vs. Chandler | Saturday, 5/15




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Welcome to Inside the Octagon, UFC fans. This weekend there is a 12-fight card in Houston, including a main event between Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler. UFC 262 should be an exciting card with some solid underdog plays for MMA DFS. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some DraftKings and FanDuel UFC DFS picks and analysis for UFC 262.

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Be sure to check out today’s MMA DFS Strategy Show with Jason Floyd and Pete “The Heat” Rogers! Airs Thursday at 8 p.m. ET.

MMA DFS: UFC 262 Oliveira vs. Chandler

Ronaldo Souza $8,500 vs. Andre Muniz $7,700

Ronaldo Souza

  • Age: 41
  • Height: 6-foot-1
  • Weight: 185 lbs.
  • Reach: 72 ins.
  • Record: 29-9-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 46%
  • Betting Odds: -115

Souza is coming into this matchup with a 2-5 record in his last seven fights. He gives up six inches of reach advantage to Andre Muniz. Souza should be able to handle Muniz’s grappling attacks, especially with the huge power his hands, which gives him a clear advantage on the feet. He has eight wins via knockout, 14 via submission, and four vis decision. Souza will look to keep this fight on the feet and test the chin of Muniz with his heavy right hand. However, if the fight hits the mat, Souza’s superior wrestling should still be able to get him back in the win column.

Andre Muniz

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 6-foot-1
  • Weight: 185 lbs.
  • Reach: 78 ins.
  • Record: 20-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 58%
  • Betting Odds: -105

Muniz is coming into this matchup with a bonus-winning submission victory over Bartosz Fabinski in September. This fight will be a massive opportunity for Muniz and will be the biggest test he has faced in his career. If Muniz can find the holes in Souza’s game, he could pull off a huge victory and start to establish himself in the middleweight division. However, Muniz will need to keep distance and avoid the heavy right hand of Souza. Muniz has four wins via knockout, 13 via submission and three via decision. Muniz will look to exploit the suspect gas tank of Souza, which could be his best shoot at victory.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Souza. His superior wrestling and heavy right hand will help put Souza back in the win column. However, do not sleep on Muniz because, if he can empty the gas tank of Souza, he will have a clear path to victory.

UFC DFS Pick: Ronaldo Souza via Unanimous Decision

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Matthew Schnell $8,900 vs. Rogerio Bontorin $7,300

Matthew Schnell

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5-foot-7
  • Weight: 125 lbs.
  • Reach: 70 ins
  • Record: 15-5-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 36%
  • Betting Odds: -160

Schnell lost his first two Octagon bouts, but he rebounded nicely, winning five of his next six. He is coming off a split decision win over Tyson Nam in January. He will have a three-inch height advantage over Bontorin, although Bontorin will have a solid five-inch reach advantage. Schnell will be at a big disadvantage if the fights hits the mat. That said, Schnell will look to keep this fight standing and test Bontorin’s suspect chin. Schnell has two wins via knockout, eight via submission and four via decision.

Rogerio Bontorin

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5-foot-4
  • Weight: 125 lbs.
  • Reach: 75 ins
  • Record: 16-3-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Betting Odds: +135

Bontorin is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Kai Kara-France in March. He is replacing Alex Perez on less than a month’s notice. Bontorin has a superior ground game, which he will incorporate into his game plan against Schnell. He has three wins via knockout, 11 via submission and three via decision. Bontorin is a submission artist, and taking this fight to the mat will be his best chance for victory. That said, this will be a scramble-heavy effort on both sides, and Bontorin should come out on top with the victory.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Bontorin. However, this fight will be close and either fighter could get the finish. Bontorin should land takedowns early and test the ground game of Schnell.

UFC DFS Pick: Rogerio Bontorin via Third-Round Submission.

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Tony Ferguson $7,600 vs. Beneil Dariush $8,600

Tony Ferguson

  • Age: 37
  • Height: 5-foot-9
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 76.5 ins
  • Record: 26-5-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 45%
  • Betting Odds: +150

Ferguson is currently No. 5 in the lightweight rankings despite losing his last two fights. He is coming into this matchup off a decision loss to Charles Oliveira in December. Ferguson was out-classed and dominated by Oliveira on the ground in that fight, and he also lost his previous fight against Justin Gaethje, who picked Ferguson apart on his way to a knockout victory. So going into this fight against Dariush, the question that needs to be asked is, has Ferguson taken to0 much damage over his last two fights? He has 12 wins via knockout, eight via submission and five via decision. Ferguson was on a tear prior to these last two fights — he had won 12 consecutive fights, nine of those coming by finish. Ferguson will be motivated and hungry to get back in the win column.

Beneil Dariush

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 72 ins
  • Record: 20-4-1
  • Striking Accuracy: 49%
  • Betting Odds: -185

Dariush is coming into this matchup with a split-decision victory over Carlos Diego Ferreira in February. He is currently riding a six-fight winning streak, with two wins coming via knockout, two via submission and two via decision. Dariush is a patient and powerful striker and a dangerous submission specialist with a black belt in jiu-jitsu. However, Ferguson is also a lethal submission specialist and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, although he has slowed down and showed a lot of weaknesses in his previous outings. Dariush’s grappling and heavy leg kicks could wear on Ferguson early, which will lead to Dariush landing his nasty overhand right to finish Ferguson.

The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Dariush. Dariush could dominate the fight from start to finish, but if Ferguson returns to the form that won him 12 consecutive fights, this could be an extremely exciting striking display on both sides.

UFC DFS Pick: Beneil Dariush via Third-Round KO/TKO.

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Charles Oliveira $8,700 vs. Michael Chandler $7,500

Charles Oliveira

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 74 ins.
  • Record: 30-8-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 52%
  • Betting Odds: -140

Oliveira is currently riding an eight-fight winning streak; he is deserving of this title opportunity. He is a dangerous submission specialist with 14 tap-outs to his name and should clearly have the advantage on the mat. However, getting Chandler to the mat will be no easy task for Oliveira — Chandler is a four-time NCAA Division I All-American in wrestling. Over Oliveira’s last eight fights, he has showed crazy growth in his all-around game. If Oliveira can weather the storm and aggressiveness of Chandler and get this fight to the mat, that is where Oliveira will have the clear advantage. Oliveira’s ground game against Tony Ferguson was extremely impressive in how he was able to neutralize a wrestler of Ferguson’s caliber.

Michael Chandler

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 5-foot-7
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 71.5 ins.
  • Record: 14-1-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 49%
  • Betting Odds: +115

Chandler is coming into this matchup off an impressive first-round knockout of Dan Hooker in his UFC debut. Chandler is a former Bellator champion who signed with the UFC as a free agent last year. Chandler will probably be the harder hitter, but Oliveira is arguably the more technical striker. Having just one UFC fight to his name, it is hard to justify Chandler getting this shot at the title. However, Chandler showed he is ready for this level with the brutal knockout in his UFC debut. Chandler has one-shot knockout power and will come out pushing the pace with blitzing fury. Chandler has 10 wins via knockout, seven via submission and five via decision.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Oliveira. However, Chandler is super dangerous on the feet with his high-pressure blitzing style. If he can get heavy pressure early and disrupt Oliveira’s rhythm, he could possibly get the early knockout. So while Oliveira’s experience and elite ground game should prevail, there is more value in going after the underdog.

UFC DFS Pick: Michael Chandler via Third-Round KO/TKO.

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