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Inside the Octagon: UFC DFS Picks for DraftKings + FanDuel UFC 265 Lewis vs. Gane | Saturday, 8/7/21




MMA DFS picks. Live Before Lock for UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Gane. FREE expert DraftKings and FanDuel UFC DFS advice 8/7.

Welcome to Inside the Octagon, UFC fans. Tomorrow the UFC will travel to the Toyota Center with an exciting heavyweight main event between Derrick Lewis and Ciryl Gane. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some MMA DFS picks and analysis for UFC 265.

MMA DFS: UFC 265 Lewis) vs. Gane | DraftKings + FanDuel

Tecia Torres ($8,700) vs. Angela Hill ($7,500)

Tecia Torres

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5-foot-1
  • Weight: 115 lbs.
  • Reach: 60.5 ins
  • Record: 12-5-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 47%
  • Betting Odds: -140

Torres has followed a four-fight losing streak with back-to-back wins over Brianna Van Buren and Sam Hughes. She was supposed to fight Hill instead of Hughes in December, but Hill tested positive for COVID-19 and was pulled from the fight. In this bout Torres will need takedowns to disrupt Hill’s rhythm. If this fight stays standing, Hill’s range and volume could be too much for the smaller Torres to withstand. However, if Torres can catch Hill with a kick or time a double leg, the whole dynamic of the fight will change drastically. Torres will attack Hill in bursts and look to set up double legs.

Angela Hill

  • Age: 36
  • Height: 5-foot-2
  • Weight: 115 lbs.
  • Reach: 64.5 ins
  • Record: 13-9-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Betting Odds: +115

Hill is a tricky fighter with excellent movement who will attack her opponents with nasty knees, elbows and high kicks. If Hill can disrupt Torres’s burst attacks, keeping her at range while landing head kicks and knees to the body, then Torres could be in for a long night in the Octagon. In this fight Hill will have the power advantage over Torres and will need use solid combinations to end Torres’s night.

The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Hill. However, this fight should be close. For DFS, it makes sense to have both sides of this fight, with a 70/30 spilt in favor of Hill.

UFC DFS Pick: Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision.

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Michael Chiesa ($7,700) vs. Vicente Luque ($8,500)

Michael Chiesa

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 6-foot-1
  • Weight: 170 lbs.
  • Reach: 75.5 ins
  • Record: 18-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 40%
  • Betting Odds: -115

Chiesa is riding a four-fight winning streak with impressive wins over Carlos Condit, Diego Sanchez, Rafael dos Anjos and Neil Magny. Since making the move up to welterweight, Chiesa is looking like a serious contender for the title. This fight with Vicente Luque will be a huge test for Chiesa because Luque is on a three-fight winning streak, with two wins via knockout and one via submission. Chiesa will have a three-inch height advantage over Luque and will look to bring this fight to the mat, but with Luque’s power, Chiesa will not strike with Luque.

Vicente Luque

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5-foot-9
  • Weight: 170 lbs.
  • Reach: 75.5 ins
  • Record: 20-7-1
  • Striking Accuracy: 54%
  • Betting Odds: -105

Luque is coming into this matchup fresh off a first-round knockout over Tyron Woodley in March. He is a technical striker with elite boxing who will stand and trade. Luque has been on fire, with 11 of his last 12 wins coming via stoppage. He will have the striking advantage in this fight. That said, Chiesa will look to slow this fight down by using his wrestling and takedown attempts, though Luque is extremely dangerous no matter where the fight takes place. Luque has never been knocked out despite his chin having been tested. On the feet Luque should be able to pick Chiesa apart with his power shots.

The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Luque. He should have a dominant performance and possibly Fight of The Night bonus.

UFC DFS Pick: Vicente Luque via Second-Round Submission.

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Joes Aldo (8,600) vs. Pedro Munhoz ($7,600)

Joes Aldo

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 5-foot-6
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 70 ins.
  • Record: 29-7-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 45%
  • Betting Odds: -115

Aldo is a former featherweight champion and one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the division. He is coming into this fight fresh off a decision win over Marlon Vera in December. Prior to this, Aldo was picked apart by Petr Yan for five rounds in a fight was for the vacant bantamweight title. Aldo is a high-level jiu-jitsu blackbelt. However, this skill has been nonexistent for quite a while, as Aldo prefers to stand and demonstrate heavy-handed striking. The same should happen in this fight, but Aldo will need to be careful trading with Munhoz because he has the power to put Aldo to sleep. That said, Aldo will come out looking to make a statement while showing he has a lot left in the tank.

Pedro Munhoz

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 6-foot-0
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 65 ins.
  • Record: 19-5-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 43%
  • Betting Odds: -105

Munhoz will have the clear advantage in this fight. His speed and power striking are elite, averaging 5.29 significant strikes per minute. Munhoz will throw hard power strikes looking to hurt his opponents early and often. Munhoz is coming into this matchup fresh off a decision win over Jimmie Rivera in February. Munhoz should push the pace with a barrage of punches, looking to land a big shot to the suspect chin of Aldo.

The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Munhoz. However, Aldo is dangerous on the mat with world-class jiu-jitsu. The one problem is Aldo prefers to stand and trade. For DFS, Munhoz is the play. Aldo will need a first-round finish to score well, and that will be tough to get against Munhoz.

UFC DFS Pick: Pedro Munhoz via Unanimous Decision.

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Derrick Lewis ($6,800) vs. Ciryl Gane ($9,400)

Derrick Lewis

  • Age: 36
  • Height: 6-foot-2
  • Weight: 260 lbs.
  • Reach: 79 ins.
  • Record: 25-7-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Betting Odds: +280

Lewis is extremely athletic for a heavyweight and looks to be in the best shape of his professional career. Lewis has done well avoiding submissions over his run in the UFC, only being submitted once in his title fight against Daniel Cormier. He is coming into this matchup with an impressive knockout over Curtis Blaydes in February. Lewis has 20 wins via knockout, one via submission and two via decision. Gane will be a huge test for Lewis, but Lewis is getting this fight in his home city of Houston, where he is 10-0.

Ciryl Gane

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 6-foot-3
  • Weight: 245 lbs.
  • Reach: 81 ins.
  • Record: 9-0-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 54%
  • Betting Odds: -350

Gane is certainly a different breed of heavyweight. He is extremely fast and very fluid, and he always makes use of solid footwork by moving in and out. Gane will have a two-inch reach advantage over Lewis. Because of this, Lewis could have trouble defending Gane’s nasty jab. Gane is the rightful favorite here because he is patient enough to pick Lewis apart but has enough power to finish him. He has three wins via knockout, three via submission and three via decision. In this fight Gane will be patient and use his movement to avoid the huge power of Lewis.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Gane, as he will pick his shots while being patient enough to set up one power shot to possibly finish Lewis. That said, Lewis does have 20 knockouts. For DFS, this could be low-volume striking match to avoid stacking for cash games.

UFC DFS Pick: Ciryl Gane via Second-Round KO/TKO.

Join Jason Floyd and Pete “The Heat” Rogers for UFC 265 Live Before Lock at 5 p.m. ET

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