Welcome to Inside the Octagon, UFC fans. This weekend there is a 12-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Ciryl Gane. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $400,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks and analysis for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
UFC DFS Picks: Vegas 20 Rozenstruik vs. Gane
Dustin Jacoby $8,500 vs. Maxim Grishin $7,700
Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 32
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 76 ins.
- Record: 13-5-0
- Striking Accuracy: 47%
- Betting Odds: -165
Jacoby is currently riding a three-fight winning streak coming into this matchup. His most recent bout was a first-round knockout against Justin Ledet back in October. Jacoby is scary and dangerous on the feet, and his kickboxing can put his opponents lights out. He has nine wins via knockout, one via submission and three wins decision. Jacoby will look to keep this fight on the feet and use his kickboxing to finish Grishin.
Maxim Grishin
- Age: 36
- Height: 6-foot-
- Weight: 220 lbs.
- Reach: 78 ins.
- Record: 31-8-2
- Striking Accuracy: 48%
- Betting Odds: +140
Grishin is coming into this matchup off a second-round knockout win against Gadzhimurad Antigulov back in October. He only has two fights thus far in his UFC career. Grishin has 16 wins via knockout, six via submission and nine via decision. He is a solid striker, landing 2.09 significant strikes per minute. Grishin will also want to keep this fight on the feet. However, Grishin will need to keep distance and find his range early because Jacoby’s hand speed could pick Grishin apart.
My lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Jacoby. His kickboxing and hand speed will be too much for Grishin to withstand.
UFC DFS Pick: Dustin Jacoby via Second-Round KO/TKO
Alexander Hernandez $8,500 vs. Thiago Moises $7,700
Alexander Hernandez
- Age: 28
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 155 lbs.
- Reach: 72 ins.
- Record: 12-3-0
- Striking Accuracy: 40%
- Betting Odds: -225
Hernandez is coming into this matchup on a sensational first-round knockout of Chris Grutzemacher back in October of 2020. His move to FactoryX seems to be paying off after his first match. Hernandez lands 3.94 significant strikes per minute and has absorbed 4.24 in return. His fighting resume shows he has five wins via knockout, two wins via submission, and five wins via decision. Hernandez has nice forward pressure and is an aggressive fighter. That said, He will need to bring his full aggression against Moises, while avoiding Moises’ heavy counter strikes.
Thiago Moises
- Age: 25
- Height: 5-foot-8
- Weight: 155 lbs.
- Reach: 70.5 ins.
- Record: 14-4-0
- Striking Accuracy: 41%
- Betting Odds: +180
Moises is coming into this matchup riding a two-fight win streak. He got a decision win in his most recent bout against Bobby Green in October and had a submission win over Michael Johnson in May. Moises is a submission specialist, and he is extremely dangerous when the fight hits the canvas. His fighting resume shows he has three wins via knockout, six wins via submission, and five wins via decision. I expect Moises will look to get this fight to the mat early. However, Hernandez’s takedown defense is respectable at 57%, so Moises could have issues getting Hernandez to the canvas.
My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Hernandez. I expect his aggression and forward pressure will interrupt Moises game plan and rhythm.
UFC DFS Pick: Alexander Hernandez via Second Round KO/TKO.
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Nikita Krylov $6,900 vs. Magomed Ankalaev $9,300
Nikita Krylov
- Age: 28
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 77.5 ins.
- Record: 27-7-0
- Striking Accuracy: 59%
- Betting Odds: +280
Krylov is the No. 8 contender in the UFC light heavyweight division. He is coming into this matchup with a unanimous decision win against Johnny Walker last March. Krylov’s two losses in the UFC have come against Jan Blachowicz and No. 1 contender Glover Teixeira. He has 11 wins via knockout, 15 via submission and one via decision. Krylov is a solid striker that uses kicks extremely effective, but his best work comes on the canvas, where he is a dangerous submission artist. Krylov will look to get this fight to the mat early while looking for the submission finish.
Magomed Ankalaev
- Age: 28
- Height: 6-foot-2
- Weight: 205 lbs.
- Reach: 75 ins.
- Record: 14-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 56%
- Betting Odds: -350
Ankalaev is the No.11 fighter in light heavyweight and is on a five-fight winning streak. His most recent bout was a first-round knockout of Ion Cutelaba in October. Ankalaev is solid when the fight hits the mat, but he does his best work on the feet. He will utilize his kickboxing to set up his power striking, which is devastating to his opponents. Ankalaev has nine wins via knockout and five via decision. He will look to keep this fight standing and use his kickboxing and power striking to test Krylov’s chin early and often.
My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Ankalaev. However, Krylov is super dangerous on the mat. If he can get this fight to the mat, he is live for a submission.
UFC DFS Pick: Magomed Ankalaev via Second-Round KO/TKO
Jairzinho Rozenstruik $7,200 vs. Ciryl Gane $9,000
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
- Age: 32
- Height: 6-foot-3
- Weight: 242 lbs.
- Reach: 78 ins.
- Record: 11-1-0
- Striking Accuracy: 51%
- Betting Odds: +230
Rozenstruik is entering this matchup ranked No.3 in the UFC heavyweight division. He was blazing through the competition until suffering a setback with a knockout loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 249, but he rebounded with a second-round knockout win over Junior dos Santos at UFC 252. Rozenstruik has 10 wins via knockout and one via decision. He comes from a kickboxing background, but his striking is where he does his best work. Rozenstruik has one-punch knockout power in his hands and can put his opponents to sleep in a hurry. Rozenstruik will push the pace early but will be patient with his power striking while looking for the knockout finish.
Ciryl Gane
- Age: 30
- Height: 6-foot-3
- Weight: 245 lbs.
- Reach: 81 ins.
- Record:7-0-0
- Striking Accuracy: 54%
- Betting Odds: -275
Gane has a background in Muay Thai and is extremely dangerous when the fight hits the mat. He is currently ranked No.7 in the heavyweight division and will be looking to move up with a victory over Rozenstruik. Gane will have a three-inch reach advantage and will have the wresting advantage. He has three wins via knockout, three via submission and one via decision. Gane moves extremely well for a heavyweight and is in fantastic shape for the division. Gane will look to get this fight to the mat, but Rozenstruik has a 75% takedown defense, which could interrupt Gane’s rhythm.
My lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Rozenstruik. Gane has not fought anyone with Rozenstruik’s power and kickboxing skill set. Furthermore, Rozenstruik should be patient with his striking while using his feints and power combinations to snap Gane’s unbeaten record.
UFC DFS Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik via Third-Round KO/TKO
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