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Inside the Octagon: UFC DFS Picks for DraftKings + FanDuel UFC 264 Poirier vs. McGregor 3 | Saturday, 7/10/21




UFC DFS Picks DraftKings FanDuel Conor McGregor Dustin Poirier UFC 264 MMA lineups las vegas betting odds picks expert predictions tonight how to bet on UFC

Welcome to Inside the Octagon, UFC fans. This week is the final chapter in the trilogy of Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier. UFC 264 should be an action-packed card full of excitement. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for UFC DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor III UFC DFS picks and analysis for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups this weekend.

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Be sure to check out the MMA Live Before Lock Show for breaking news, UFC DFS tips, picks and DraftKings & FanDuel lineup advice with Jason Floyd and Pete “The Heat” Rogers!

UFC DFS Picks: UFC 264 Poirier vs. McGregor III

Ryan Hall $7,100 vs. llia Topuria $9,100

Ryan Hall

  • Age: 36
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 145 lbs.
  • Reach: 70.5 ins.
  • Record: 8-1-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 43%
  • Betting Odds: +195

Hall is a veteran of six years in the Octagon, but he has only been able to compete a mere three times since winning The Ultimate Fighter in 2015. The problem Hall has faced is the lack of challengers, being an unranked fighter but one of the most dangerous in the featherweight division. Hall is a submission specialist with a highly dangerous ground game and smothering top control. He has two wins via knockout, three via submission and three via decision. Hall will need to avoid the early storm from Topuria. If he can do that, his striking and patient grappling will disrupt Topuria’s rhythm, causing mistakes on the ground and leading to a possible submission win for Hall.

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llia Topuria

  • Age: 24
  • Height: 5-foot-6
  • Weight: 145 lbs.
  • Reach: 69 ins.
  • Record: 10-0-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 45%
  • Betting Odds: -250

Topuria is a powerful and explosive fighter with a dangerous jiu-jitsu game. He finished his first seven opponents via submission. However, in his last three fights he showed a solid heavy-handed boxing attack, coming out with knockouts in two of the three. Topuria will walk his opponents down and deliver nasty body shots to create openings upstairs. He has two wins via knockout, seven via submission and one via decision. Topuria likes to start fast but tends to fade in the middle and end of rounds. That said, this could give Hall an early edge in this fight, as he rarely gasses and maintains his cardio deep into three-round fights.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Hall. However, this fight should be an absolute clinic of grappling exchanges, and either fighter could get the finish.

UFC DFS Pick: Ryan Hall via Second-Round Submission.

Carlos Condit $7,500 vs. Max Griffin $8,700

Carlos Condit

  • Age: 37
  • Height: 6-foot-2
  • Weight: 170 lbs.
  • Reach: 75.5 ins
  • Record: 32-13-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 39%
  • Betting Odds: +165

Condit is entering this fight on a two-fight winning streak, beating both Court McGee and Matt Brown via unanimous decision. He has been a showstopper throughout his career; out of his 32 wins, 28 have come via stoppages. He is a veteran of the sport and has been a part of the UFC for over a decade. Condit is tough and should be able to absorb the attack of Griffin. However, Griffin’s power could put Condit to sleep early. This fight is going to have a lot of excitement and should be entertaining for the UFC fans.

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Max Griffin

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 5-foot-9
  • Weight: 170 lbs.
  • Reach: 76 ins
  • Record: 17-8-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 48%
  • Betting Odds: -200

Griffin is coming in on the first two-fight winning streak of his career, beating Ramiz Brahimaj via third-round TKO and Kenan Song via first-round knockout. However, Griffin had struggled in the Octagon prior to his latest winning streak, losing six of his first nine fights in the UFC. Griffin has nine wins via knockout, two via submission and six via decision. He throws devastating elbows with precision and accuracy. Griffin will be looking to make a statement, especially since he called Condit out after his last bout.

The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Griffin. However, this fight should be an absolute war.

UFC DFS Pick: Max Griffin via Second-Round KO/TKO .

Sean O’Malley $9,500 vs. Kris Moutinho $6,700

Sean O’Malley

  • Age: 26
  • Height: 5-foot-9
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 72 ins
  • Record: 13-1-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 57%
  • Betting Odds: -900

O’Malley was originally scheduled to fight Louis Smolka, but Smolka dropped out with an undisclosed injury. Now O’Malley will be taking on Moutinho making his UFC debut, and this will be a tough task for Moutinho. After suffering an injury in his first career loss to Marlon Vera, O’Malley rebounded with a knockout win over Thomas Almeida in March. O’Malley has nine wins via knockout, one via submission and three via decision. He will patiently pick Moutinho apart, using his long powerful right hand to finish him early. O’Malley is a core play for DFS purposes even at his high price because of the solid value down the card.

Kris Moutinho

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 5-foot-6
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 67 ins
  • Record: 9-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: +600

Moutinho is taking this fight on short notice and will have a huge task in front on him when he steps inside the Octagon. He is a pressure striker who will push forward and walk his opponents down. Moutinho has good hand speed and solid combinations, although his weakness will be his lack of head movement. He will be giving up a four-inch reach advantage to O’Malley, which will keep Moutinho from finding his range. Moutinho has three wins via knockout, one via submission and five via decision.

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The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is O’Malley, who should dominate this fight. That said, anything can happen inside the Octagon.

UFC DFS Pick: Sean O’Malley via First-Round KO/TKO.

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Gilbert Burns 7,700 vs. Stephen Thompson $8,500

Gilbert Burns

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 170 lbs.
  • Reach: 71 ins.
  • Record: 19-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 45%
  • Betting Odds: +14

Burns is coming into this matchup off a disappointing knockout loss to current champion Kamaru Usman at UFC 258. Prior to the Usman fight, Burns was riding an impressive six-fight winning streak. He is a grappling specialist and a jiu-jitsu world champion, but he has also improved his striking under kickboxing coach Henri Hooft. Burns has six wins via knockout, eight via submission and five wins via decision. He has solid power on the feet and has dropped fighters with his dangerous left hook countless times. Burns will have trouble getting this fight to the canvas against Thompson. That said, Thompson will have the higher output and should outclass Burns on the feet.

Stephen Thompson

  • Age: 38
  • Height: 6-foot-0
  • Weight: 170 lbs.
  • Reach: 75 ins.
  • Record: 16-4-1
  • Striking Accuracy: 43%
  • Betting Odds: -175

Thompson is coming into this matchup off a decision win over Geoff Neal in December. He comes from a kickboxing background and is a black belt in karate. Thompson is a phenomenal striker that uses distance and nasty kicks to pick his opponents apart. He has seven wins via knockout, one via submission and eight via decision. Thompson will make Burns fight him in his world, using his long striking range and stuffing all and any takedown attempts.

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The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Thompson. However, Burns is super dangerous on the mat and has world class jiu-jitsu. If Burns can get this fight to the mat and disrupt Thompson’s rhythm, he could possibly get the finish. That said, Thompson’s takedown defense and elite striking should outclass Burns in this fight.

UFC DFS Pick: Stephen Thompson via Unanimous Decision.

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Dustin Poirier $8,100 vs. Conor McGregor $8,100

Dustin Poirier

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 72 ins.
  • Record: 27-6-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Betting Odds: -120

This will be the third time Poirier has faced McGregor, and both have wins via knockout. Poirier looked well polished in their last meeting, using nasty calf kicks to set up the knockout win over McGregor. This is a huge spot for Poirier, especially if he can defeat McGregor by finish once again and take the trilogy. Poirier will bring a similar gameplan this time around, looking to get this fight to the mat early and disrupt McGregor’s rhythm. Poirier has 13 wins via knockout, seven via submission and seven via decision.

Conor McGregor

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 74 ins.
  • Record: 17-4-1
  • Striking Accuracy: 49%
  • Betting Odds: +100

McGregor will be looking for redemption coming into this third bout against Poirier. He is one of the best strikers in the UFC, so expect McGregor to be motivated and make the needed adjustments in this meeting. His counter left hand is full of power and can put his opponents lights out. In their last meeting McGregor had the striking edge until Poirier destroyed his leg with nasty calf kicks. McGregor has 19 wins via knockout, one via submission and two via decision. He will make the appropriate adjustments to avoid the calf kicks and use his elite striking to put his stamp on this trilogy.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is McGregor. However, Poirier is super dangerous on the mat, seven wins via submission. If Poirier can get heavy pressure early and disrupt McGregor’s rhythm, he could possibly look to shoot and lock in a submission.

UFC DFS Pick: Conor McGregor via First-Round KO/TKO.

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