Inside the Octagon: UFC DFS Breakdown + Analysis | UFC 257 Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor

Welcome to Inside the Octagon, UFC fans. This weekend we have a 13-fight card in Abu Dhabi including a main event between Dustin Poirier vs Conor McGregor. The main GPP has $200,000 going to first place with a total of $1,000,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for MMA DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks for UFC 257 Poirier vs McGregor.

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MMA DFS: UFC 257 Poirier vs McGregor | DraftKings + FanDuel

Amir Albazi $7,900 vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov $8,300

Amir Albazi

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5-foot-4
  • Weight: 125 lbs.
  • Reach: 68 ins
  • Record: 13-1-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: +105

Albazi is coming into this matchup off of an impressive submission win over Malcolm Gordon back in July. He has four wins via knockout, eight wins via submission and one win via decision. Albazi is always looking to get the first- or second round finish. His jiu-jitsu is extremely dangerous, so Albazi will be looking to get this fight to the canvas early. He possesses nice power in his hands that can send his opponents to the canvas.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5-foot-3
  • Weight: 125 lbs.
  • Reach: 66.5 ins
  • Record: 13-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: -125

Zhumagulov is coming into this matchup off a disappointing decision loss to Raulian Paiva at UFC 251 back in July. He likes to bring forward pressure and control the center of the octogen. Zhumagulov has six wins via knockout, one win via submission and six wins via decision. His standup is solid, and he also a nice ground game. Zhumagulov will look to keep this fight standing, although if this fight hits the canvas, Zhumagulov could find himself in serious trouble.

My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Albazi. He should be able to control this fight on the canvas and possibly seal another submission victory.

UFC DFS Pick: Amir Albazi via Second-Round Submission.


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Matt Frevola $7,400 vs. Arman Tsarukyan  $8,900

Matt Frevola

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 71 ins
  • Record: 8-1-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 36%
  • Betting Odds: TBA

Frevola is coming into this matchup off back-to-back wins over Luis Pena and Jalin Turner but has not fought in 15 months. He has one win via knockout, three wins via submission, and four via decision. Frevola was the underdog in his previous fights against elite strikers, and he was rocked in both fights. But Frevola managed to use his wrestling to edge out decision wins in both bouts. That said, Frevola eats a ton of shots in his fights and seems to be extremely hittable, which Tsarukyan should be able to take advantage of with his combinations. Frevola will have to keep distance and avoid  striking battles with Tsarukyan to have a chance in this fight.

Arman Tsarukyan

  • Age: 24
  • Height: 5-foot-6
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 72,5 ins
  • Record: 15-2-1
  • Striking Accuracy: 51%
  • Betting Odds: TBA

Tsarukyan is coming into this matchup with back-to-back decision wins over Luis Pena  and Jalin Turner. His fighting resume shows he has five wins via knockout, five via submission, and five via decision. Tsarukyan has excellent movement and solid striking with outstanding footwork. Furthermore, Tsarukyan  is an elite grappler with solid cardio and a nice submission game. I expect Tsarukyan will use his nasty combinations to pick Frevola apart on the feet.

My preferred play is Tsarukyan on DraftKings and FanDuel. I expect Tsarukyan to us his excellent footwork and movement to pick Frevola apart and possibly get a win via knockout.

UFC DFS Pick: Armen Tsarukyan via Third Round KO/TKO..


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Dan Hooker $8,500 vs. Michael Chandler $7,700

Dan Hooker

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6-foot-0
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 75 ins
  • Record: 20-9-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 43%
  • Betting Odds: -140

Hooker is coming into this matchup off a decision loss to Dustin Poirier back in June. He is currently ranked No. 6  in the lightweight division and has 10 wins via knockout, seven via submission and three via decision. Hooker is one of the best kickboxers in the lightweight division and does an outstanding job setting up his nasty combinations with feints and leg kicks. Hooker should have the clear striking advantage on the feet, although if Chandler can get this fight to the canvas, he would have an edge. That said, getting Hooker to the canvas will be a tough task for the debuting Chandler.

Michael Chandler

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 5-foot-7
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 71.5 ins.
  • Record: 21-5-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: +115

Chandler will be making his UFC debut. He is coming into this matchup with a win over Benson Henderson at Bellator. Chandler was a three-time lightweight champion at Bellator. He was an All-American wrestler at Missouri and has a dangerous ground game. Chandler’s ground-and-pound is vicious, and he has a solid submission game that can finish his opponents in a hurry. He has nine wins via knockout, seven wins via submission and five wins via decision. Chandler will look to get this fight to the canvas, where he will have the edge.

My preferred paly for DraftKings and FanDuel is Hooker. Hooker will use his experience and elite striking, feints and dangerous kickboxing to pull Chandler into traps.

UFC DFS Pick: Dan Hooker via Unanimous Decision.

Dustin Poirier $7,100 vs. Conor McGregor $9,100

Dustin Poirier

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 72 ins
  • Record: 26-6-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Betting Odds: +225

Poirier fought Conor McGregor back in September 2014. However, both fighters have made huge changes in their careers since this first meeting. They both have moved to lightweight from their previous featherweight division. Poirier has 12 wins via knockout, seven wins via submission and seven decisions. He is coming in off a five-round, brawling win via decision over Hooker. We should see a more polished and relaxed Poirier in this fight, someone focused and motivated to get the job done against McGregor.

 Conor McGregor

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 74 ins.
  • Record: 22-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 49%
  • Betting Odds: -275

McGregor has not fought since his first-round win via knockout over Donald Cerrone back in January. He seemed calmer and more relaxed in that fight, compared to the McGregor of old who seemed to always have a chip on his shoulder. McGregor has 19 wins via knockout, one win via submission and two via decision. McGregor should come out motivated, focused and ready to make a statement with a knockout win over Poirier.

My preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is McGregor. I expect McGregor to bring heavy pressure and walk Poirier down while looking for the first-round finish.

UFC DFS Pick: Conor McGregor via Frist Round KO/TKO.


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