Inside the Octagon: UFC DFS Breakdown + Analysis | Vegas 15: Anthony Smith vs. Devin Clark

also also    also  Hello, UFC fans. This weekend we have an 10-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Anthony Smith vs. Devin Clark. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $350,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for MMA DFS picks purposes at Vegas 15. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks and analysis for Blaydes vs Lewis.  

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MMA DFS: Vegas 15  Smith vs Clark DraftKings + FanDuel UFC DFS Picks

Su Mudaerji $9,100 vs. Malcolm Gordon $7,100

Su Mudaerji

  • Age: 24
  • Height: 5-foot-7
  • Weight: 125 lbs.
  • Reach: 72 ins
  • Record: 12-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 60%
  • Betting Odds: -335

Mudaerji made his UFC debut in November 2018 but fell short, losing via submission against Louis Smolka. However, Mudaerji rebounded by beating Andre Soukhamthath via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 157 in August of 2019. Also in Mudaerji’s 12 victories he has 10 knockouts, one submission and one decision on his resume. I also expect this fight will be a back-and-forth striking battle. Furthermore, Mudaerji should be able to land heavy shots in a striking battle that puts Gordon’s lights out.

Malcolm Gordon

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5-foot-6
  • Weight: 125 lbs.
  • Reach: 71 ins.
  • Record: 12-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: +255

Gordon is a veteran of the sport, turning pro in 2012. Furthermore, Gordan is a former TKO and WXC flyweight champion. On the feet Gordon will throw in volume, as well as use his jab to control the distance. Gordon is solid on the canvas and an extremely strong finisher, as well as  he can transition from submission to submission. Furthermore, Gordon will look to shoot and get Mudaerji to the canvas, where he could lock in one of his nasty submissions.

My preferred play is Mudaerji. Furthermore, I expect him to catch Gordon with something nasty early in round one.

UFC DFS Pick: Su Mudaerji via Frist Round KO/TKO.

Jonathan Pearce $7,000 vs. Kai Kamaka $7,100

 Jonathan Pearce

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 6-foot-0
  • Weight: 145 lbs.
  • Reach: 71.5 ins.
  • Record: 9-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: +250

Pearce made his UFC debut against Joe Lauzon at UFC Fight Night Boston, though his debut was cut short when Lauzon mauled him in just 93 seconds. He was originally supposed to face Sean Woodson in this fight, but Woodson withdrew, and Kamaka is stepping in on a week’s notice. Pearce is notably the bigger man in this fight, which could give him an advantage if Kamaka has cardio issue as he did in his last fight. Pearce is a pressure fighter, but he will have a hard time getting pressure going against Kamaka due to Kamaka’s ability to drag Pearce to the canvas at will, even with Pearce being the larger fighter.

Kai Kamaka

  • Age: 25
  • Height: 5-foot-6
  • Weight: 145 lbs.
  • Reach: 69 ins.
  • Record: 8-2-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Bretting Odds: -320

Kamaka is undefeated thus far in his UFC career, defeating Tony Kelley via unanimous decision  at UFC 252. Also Kamaka is riding a six-fight win streak coming into this fight and has not loss in over three years. Kamaka’s last seven fights have gone to the score cards, which is concerning from a UFC DFS perspective. That said, Kamaka’s boxing skills and takedown upside should be more than enough to score well. Furthermore, I expect Kamaka will get his first finish in six years.

My preferred play is Kamaka. I expect his boxing skills will be more than enough to carry him to a decision victory or a knockout win.

UFC DFS Pick: Kai Kamaka via Second Round KO/TKO.

Miguel Baeza $8,800 vs. Takashi Sato $7,500

Miguel Baeza

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 6-foot-2
  • Weight: 170 lbs.
  • Reach: 74.5 ins.
  • Record: 9-0-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 56%
  • Betting Odds: -188

Baeza got rocked in his last fight against Matt Brown, but he recovered and finished Brown in the next round. Some people may be questioning if Baeza has a suspect chin, but he got rocked by Matt Brown, who hits extremely hard. Baeza will throw nasty knees to the body and head in the clinch. Furthermore, Baeza has nasty kicks that he finished Hector Aldana with at UFC Fight Night 161. Baeza will also  have a four-inch height advantage over Sato. Baeza will be facing a dangerous fighter in Sato, but Baeza will get the job done with his striking and explosive knockout power.

Takashi Sato

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 170 lbs.
  • Reach: 73 ins.
  • Record: 16-3-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 41%
  • Betting Odds: +130

Sato is coming in on an impressive 48-second knockout win over Jason Witt in June. He has been a pro since 2012 and has 11 wins via knockout and two via submission, along with an impressive nine first-round finishes. Sato is a pressure fighter, as well as stringing together nasty combinations and pushing forward. This will be a striking battle, furthermore a knockout is possible for either fighter.

My preferred play is Baeza. I expect Baeza’s  power striking and explosiveness will be more than enough to get the job done.

UFC DFS Pick: Miguel Baeza via First Round KO/TKO.


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Anthony Smith $8,800 vs. Devin Clark $7,500

Anthony Smith

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 6-foot-3
  • Weight: 205 lbs.
  • Reach: 76 ins.
  • Record: 33-16-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 48%
  • Betting Odds: -140

Smith replaces Shamil Gamzatov who could not make the trip due to visa issues. He will be looking to get back in the win column, after getting dominated  by Glover Teixeira  in a TKO loss, as well as a unanimous decision loss to Aleksandar Rakic. Smith is an aggressive fighter, as well as being a strong grappler and better striker. Although Clark will have the wrestling and power edge, but Smith will be the much more experienced  fighter here. In this fight, Smith will look to bounce back after back-to-back losses, but the one concern is how bad he has looked his last two bouts.

Devin Clark

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6-foot-0
  • Weight: 205 lbs.
  • Reach: 75 ins.
  • Record: 12-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 57%
  • Betting Odds: +120

Clark will be looking to get the biggest win of his career. He is a tremendous  athlete,  also this will be Clark’s third fight of 2020. Clark is also coming in on two unanimous decision victories over Dequan Townsend  and Alonzo Menifield. He  also was a junior college National Wrestling Champion. Clark is also dangerous and has big power, as well as nasty spinning backfits that can put his opponents lights out in a hurry. This will be a big step up in competition for Clark, being able to fight an experienced fighter such as Smith. Furthermore, I expect Clark to be motivated and look to come out and make a statement, as well as showing everyone that he is ready to move up the rankings.

My preferred play is Clark.  Therefore, I also expect his power and wrestling edge should be able to seal him the victory. Although, Smith is always live for a stoppage, but the concern is his last two bouts and not giving himself time to recovery from these fights.

UFC DFS Pick: Devin Clark via Second Round KO/TKO.


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