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Josh’s MMA DFS Picks for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker

Josh Engleman

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The MMA DFS Hub: one-stop shop for all your weekly Awesemo MMA DFS content for Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel | UFC 251: Usman vs. Burns

Mark Stine is off this week, so our former resident UFC DFS handicapper, Josh Engleman is stepping in to give you the MMA DFS Picks you need for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker. Not a member of Awesemo+? Sign up HERE to gain access to all our premium data, projections & tools for DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft and more! Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.


And don’t forget to tune into Live Before Lock this afternoon at 3:30 ET with Jason Floyd and Pete “The Heat” Rogers as the breakdown the entire card and answer all your questions.


Top UFC DFS Cash Plays (FanDuel + DraftKings)

When it comes to cash game plays, the first place to start is with our projected ownership. Comparing the results of my crunches to our projected ownership allows me to see who my clear cash options are for a slate. In this case, Sean Woodson and Brendan Allen are musts on both sites. Woodson is projected to be the most owned fighter on DK & FD. Allen is projected as the third-most owned fighter on DraftKings, while being tied with Woodson on FanDuel. Both guys are heavy favorites (70%+ likelihood of winning), which shouldn’t be much of a surprise. They couple those odds with better than 50/50 odds of getting a finish. That’s what is truly important.

In the Top Fighters tool, you can look at the odds of someone scoring 100 points. As of right now, Allen and Woodson come in at 39% and 37% respectively. Those rates put both guys in the top-4, just behind Dustin Poirier and Mike Perry.

When push comes to shove, any win is good for cash. For me, Allen and Woodson are the two most efficient cash plays on the slate, regardless of site.

Top MMA DFS GPP Plays (FanDuel + DraftKings)

GPP plays are quite different. My goal is to focus on guys I believe are under-owned relative to their odds of success. Using the ownership projections and top fighters tool, this process is super easy.

Dan Hooker – MVP

If I’m in a GPP on FanDuel, using Hooker as my MVP is my favorite play. Hooker projects to be the top scorer on the slate 10% of the time. That’s the second highest mark on the card behind Poirier. His projected ownership in the MVP slot is half of that, which creates the biggest leverage spot of all fighters. Just for example, Perry has the third-best odds of being the top scorer, but his MVP ownership is 2x that of Hooker.

That’s not the only reason Hooker stands out. Between the MVP spot and regular lineup spots, Poirier is projected for 58% total ownership. If Hooker picks up the win, you know that you’ll only be competing with the other 42% of lineups in the contest. Poirier makes for a solid cash play, but at this moment, going against him on FanDuel gives you the best chance of taking down a GPP.

Philipe Lins

Lins fits a similar mold for me on DraftKings, although I’m still using him heavily on FanDuel. On DK, Lins has the highest leverage score on the entire card. He’s in a coin-flip fight, but he’s only bringing in 16% projected ownership. Considering we project him to be a Top 6 scorer 25% of the time, I’m looking to come in at 2x the field or more. At $8300, Lins works in any lineup build, so you should have no trouble making sure he fits. There’s no reason that Tanner Boser should be projected for more ownership than Lins given what we know right now. This all holds true on FanDuel, too. Lins is actually CHEAPER than Boser on FD. Try to put the Andrei Arlovski fight out of your mind. Lins is what you’re looking for in a GPP.

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Josh is Contributor for Awesemo.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Awesemo's Premium Slack. You can contact Josh by emailing support@awesemo.com.

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