Mark Stine is off this week, so our former resident UFC DFS handicapper, Josh Engleman is stepping in to give you the MMA DFS Picks you need for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker. Not a member of Awesemo+? Sign up HERE to gain access to all our premium data, projections & tools for DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft and more! Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
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When it comes to cash game plays, the first place to start is with our projected ownership. Comparing the results of my crunches to our projected ownership allows me to see who my clear cash options are for a slate. In this case, Sean Woodson and Brendan Allen are musts on both sites. Woodson is projected to be the most owned fighter on DK & FD. Allen is projected as the third-most owned fighter on DraftKings, while being tied with Woodson on FanDuel. Both guys are heavy favorites (70%+ likelihood of winning), which shouldn’t be much of a surprise. They couple those odds with better than 50/50 odds of getting a finish. That’s what is truly important.
In the Top Fighters tool, you can look at the odds of someone scoring 100 points. As of right now, Allen and Woodson come in at 39% and 37% respectively. Those rates put both guys in the top-4, just behind Dustin Poirier and Mike Perry.
When push comes to shove, any win is good for cash. For me, Allen and Woodson are the two most efficient cash plays on the slate, regardless of site.
Top MMA DFS GPP Plays (FanDuel + DraftKings)
GPP plays are quite different. My goal is to focus on guys I believe are under-owned relative to their odds of success. Using the ownership projections and top fighters tool, this process is super easy.
Dan Hooker – MVP
If I’m in a GPP on FanDuel, using Hooker as my MVP is my favorite play. Hooker projects to be the top scorer on the slate 10% of the time. That’s the second highest mark on the card behind Poirier. His projected ownership in the MVP slot is half of that, which creates the biggest leverage spot of all fighters. Just for example, Perry has the third-best odds of being the top scorer, but his MVP ownership is 2x that of Hooker.
That’s not the only reason Hooker stands out. Between the MVP spot and regular lineup spots, Poirier is projected for 58% total ownership. If Hooker picks up the win, you know that you’ll only be competing with the other 42% of lineups in the contest. Poirier makes for a solid cash play, but at this moment, going against him on FanDuel gives you the best chance of taking down a GPP.
Lins fits a similar mold for me on DraftKings, although I’m still using him heavily on FanDuel. On DK, Lins has the highest leverage score on the entire card. He’s in a coin-flip fight, but he’s only bringing in 16% projected ownership. Considering we project him to be a Top 6 scorer 25% of the time, I’m looking to come in at 2x the field or more. At $8300, Lins works in any lineup build, so you should have no trouble making sure he fits. There’s no reason that Tanner Boser should be projected for more ownership than Lins given what we know right now. This all holds true on FanDuel, too. Lins is actually CHEAPER than Boser on FD. Try to put the Andrei Arlovski
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- The Awesemo YouTube Channel – Weekly MMA DFS Strategy Show
- The DraftKings Cheatsheet for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs Hooker
- The FanDuel Cheatsheet for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs Hooker
- The Heat Sheet: Pete Rogers’ MMA DFS Stats Guide for UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs Hooker
- UFC DFS Fight Breakdown + Analysis for UFC Fight NIght
- UFC DFS: DraftKings and FanDuel Projections (PREMIUM)
- UFC DFS: Ownership Projections for DraftKings + FanDuel MMA (PREMIUM)
- UFC DFS: Top Fighters Tool for DraftKings + FanDuel (PREMIUM)