The UFC is running another PPV headlined by a familiar face. On Saturday, Deiveson Figueiredo fights Brandon Moreno for the flyweight title at UFC 256. Here are some UFC odds and UFC betting picks that stand out for the weekend’s Figueiredo vs Moreno card.
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UFC Odds + Betting Picks | UFC 256: Figueiredo vs Moreno
UFC Betting Pick: Tony Ferguson To Win -162
The narrative on Ferguson after losing to Justin Gaethje is that he isn’t the fighter he once was. Maybe this is the case but fighting Charles Oliveira is a step back in competition from what we normally see Tony up against. I also think this is a very favorable stylistic matchup for Ferguson.
While Oliveira has a very slick submission game, I don’t think he has an advantage on the mat over Ferguson. On the feet, I give a significant advantage to Ferguson and I think his pace and pressure will present a problem for Oliveira. Oliveira is looking good as of late but fought soft competition outside of Kevin Lee. We have seen Oliveira get overwhelmed and finished in the past and Ferguson lands 5.80 significant strikes per minute compared to 3.27 per minute for Oliveira. FanDuel has a prop boost to get Ferguson at +320 to win by KO/TKO which is another favorable bet.
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UFC Betting Pick: Billy Quarantillo To Win -152
On paper, this fight looks like a poor man’s version of the Ferguson-Oliveira fight. The line is similar and the output difference also stands out. Quarantillo lands a staggering 7.51 significant strikes per minute and has elite cardio. He has the rare ability to weaponize his pace and use it to overwhelm opponents. Quarantillo does this is a similar fashion to how we see Ferguson utilize his cardio and pressure. With Gavin Tucker landing 3.67 significant strikes per minute, it’s difficult to see him winning a decision because of the massive difference in output between the fighters.
Here is why I think the line on this fight is curious. It is -170 to go to decision and Quarantillo is a near lock to win based on output difference if there is no finish. Quarantillo is on an eight-fight winning streak and hasn’t gotten finished since 2016. The last time Tucker faced somebody capable of Quarantillo’s output, he was out struck by Rick Glenn by a margin of 142 significant strikes to 23.
UFC betting Pick: Renato Moicano To Win +125
The wrong fighter is favored in this fight between Moicano and Rafael Fiziev. This line stinks of recency bias after Fiziev looked impressive in a win over Marc Diakiese. Looking at the total numbers, I have to give an advantage to Moicano. As polished as Fiziev looks on the feet, it’s a concern to me that he barely has a positive striking differential despite all his accolades on the feet. Moicano fights with more output and has a significant grappling advantage should this fight hit the mat. We have never seen Fiziev on his back before but I suspect it’s an area he will struggle. Moicano is a high-level blackbelt with seven of his 14 wins via submission. The +400 sub prop is interesting but I haven’t committed to wagering on it yet.
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