The UFC is back after a short layoff. Following a some time at Fight Island, the UFC returns to action with UFC Vegas 18: Overeem vs. Volkov. We’ve got plenty of fights to check out and break down the UFC odds and betting picks.
UFC Odds + Betting Picks | UFC Vegas 18: Overeem vs. Volkov
UFC Betting Pick: Beniel Dariush vs. Diego Ferreira To Finish Inside The Distance -110
Dariush has looked incredible lately and so has Ferreira. The two veterans come into this weekend riding extended winning streaks with Ferreira winning six in a row compared to a five-fight win steak for Dariush. Of those wins, Dariush has won inside the distance on four times in a row and Ferreira has finished three of his last five fights. I expect this fight to play out on the feet and both fighters have somewhat suspect chins. Ferrieira’s last loss came by knockout and the same goes for Dariush. Even in his wins, Dariush is getting rocked at times. He was nearly out on his feet before finishing Drakkar Klose when they fought last year. All four of Dariush’s UFC losses came inside the distance.
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UFC Betting Pick: Mike Rodriguez -229 To Win
I don’t usually bet wide moneyline odds but this isn’t lined properly in my opinion. Danilo Marques is coming off an extremely unimpressive UFC debut. Fighting against one of the worst fighters in the roster in Khadis Ibragimov, Marques did almost nothing. He won the fight because Ibragimov actually did nothing. Marques landed a few takedowns and 16 significant strikes en route to a win. Both fighters were gassed after half a round which is going to present an issue for Marques. Rodriguez is an active fighter who lands 5.19 significant strikes per minute. I expect the difference in activity as well as Marques’ limited cardio to allow Rodriguez to cruise to a comfortable victory which is somewhat likely to come inside the distance.
UFC betting Pick: Joselyne Edwards To Win +200
I don’t favor Edwards to win outright but I think this is a much closer fight than the line indicates. If was lining it, I would set it even odds. Edwards showed a well-rounded game in her UFC debut and beat a decent opponent in Wu Yanan. Edwards has a background in striking although she also threatened with submissions when the fight hit the ground and nearly finished an armbar early in the fight.
Karol Rosa is proving a great DFS option in her first couple of fights. She is landing 9.7 significant strikes per minute and also landed a pair of takedowns in her last fight against Vanessa Melo. The concern I have with Rosa is her defense. Fighting against very low-level opponents, she is absorbing 7.0 significant strikes per minute. This is a red flag for me, especially since Edwards is the toughest opponent she has faced to date. I would favor Edwards to win outright if it wasn’t for her slowing down in the third round of her first fight in the UFC.
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