UFC Betting Picks | UFC Fight Night: Max Holloway vs. Calvin Kattar

The UFC is back for the first time in 2021. Following a layoff for the holidays, the UFC returns to action with Fight Island 7, a  great card which is headlined by Max Holloway and Calvin Kattar. We’ve got plenty of fights to check out and break down the UFC odds and betting picks.

[SportsbookAffiliates]

UFC Odds + Betting Picks | UFC Fight Island 7: Holloway vs. Kattar

UFC Betting Pick: Ramazan Emeev To Win By Decision -110

Emeev comes into this fight as a large favorite. In fact, he’s the second biggest favorite on the card because most of the fights are lined fairly closely. The odds look about right but I don’t agree with the inside the distance odds. Throughout his UFC career, Emeez looks to find himself in control positions without aggressively hunting for finishes. As a result, all five of his UFC fight have gone the distance which includes four wins for Emeev. Emeev is an aggressive wrestler who lands 2.00 takedowns per 15 minutes. David Zwaba has decent takedown defense, defending at 60%, but Emeev should eventually get this fight to the ground with his high volume of attempts. Once there, he will likely look to play it safe and ride out top position to grind out a win.

UFC Betting Pick: Carlos Condit vs. Matt Brown To Finish Inside The Distance -140

Condit and Brown are both legends of the sport. In some ways, this is kind of a backhanded compliment. While it means they have both had great careers, legend also implies they are old and past their primes. This is the case since Brown recently turned 40 and Condit in 36. The narrative is that Condit has a bit more left in the tank because he won his last fight but I don’t read too much into his decision win over Court McGee. Condit’s output wasn’t great and he was on a five-fight skid before that win.

What is notable about Brown is that all of his recent fights are ending inside the distance. Each of his last seven fights ended in a finish with him coming out on top of three of them. Brown hasn’t gone to the judges scorecards since a loss to Johny Hendricks in 2015. Considering this run of finishes, it’s hard for me to believe that oddsmakers set this line so close to even odds to go the distance.

Join STOKASTIC+ today!
Use accurate data and advanced tools crafted by the #1 DFS player.

UFC betting Pick: Max Holloway -162 To Win

This line looks like an overreaction to me. Holloway has lost three of his last four fights but it’s hard to call any of those losses terrible. He was outsized against Dustin Poirier when attempting to move up to lightweight for a title and his two losses against the current champ, Alexander Volkanovski, were both close fights. The popular opinion is that Max won their last fight, yet this bout is still lined as if he’s a fighter struggling.

This is no disrespect meant to Kattar but he’s not quite on the level of Max’s recent opponents. Holloway is arguably the greatest featherweight of all time and is still young. He has taken a decent amount of significant strikes in his young career, but since he’s 29, this isn’t a concern for me. Holloway has never gotten dropped in a fight so he takes the damage well. On output, he has the advantage here as he does in all of his fights. Holloway lands 6.47 significant strikes per minute compared to 5.01 per minute for Kattar. Kattar also showed some signs of fatigue in the later rounds of his last fight against Dan Ige, which is never an issue for Max.


Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Looking for more UFC odds, bets and picks content for Holloway vs Kattar? We have loads of articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo MMA home page. Just click HERE.

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.