The UFC is back in Las Vegas for another card. On Saturday, Deiveson Figueiredo fights Alex Perez for the flyweight title. Here are some UFC odds and UFC betting picks that stand out for the weekend’s Figueiredo vs dos Perez card.
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UFC Odds + Betting Picks for UFC 255: Figueiredo vs Perez
UFC Betting Pick: Louis Cosce To Win Inside The Distance -185
In seven career fights, Louis Cosce is untested. He is breezing through all his opponents. Cosce is 6-0 with six first-round finishes. Not only is he finishing fights in the first round, he’s doing it quickly. Cosce has recent wins in 18 seconds and eight seconds. Eventually he will get tested and we will learn more about him as a prospect, but I don’t think that test will come at UFC 255. Cosce is fighting Sasha Palatnikov, who does not look very impressive on tape. He is prone to getting hurt and was finished in both of his losses on the regional scene. It looks the UFC is setting this fight up as a showcase for Cosce to get another early finish. Given how he’s won all of his fights, it’s also viable to bet him at +185 to win in the first round.
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UFC Betting Pick: Antonina Shevchenko To Win -150
Valentina Shevchenko is not the only one in her family fighting on Saturday. We also have Antonina Shevchenko taking on Ariane Lipski in a lower-level women’s MMA bout. There is a clear hole in Antonina’s game when it comes to defensive wrestling. She isn’t well rounded, but it shouldn’t matter much in this matchup. Lipski only lands 0.32 takedowns per 15 minutes and isn’t likely to test Shevchenko’s defensive wrestling. Her 50% takedown defense shouldn’t come into play in this matchup.
As long as this fight stays on the feet, I have to favor Shevchenko. She lands 4.09 significant strikes per minutes compared to 3.34 significant strikes per minute for Lipski. There is also a big gap in striking defense. Shevchenko absorbs 2.66 significant strikes per minute compared to Lipski absorbing 4.52 significant strikes per minute. I do not think this fight will score well on DraftKings, although I am pretty confident that Shevchenko will comfortably win a striking-based decision.
UFC betting Pick: Alex Perez To Win +260
Deiveson Figueiredo is a massive favorite over Alex Perez in the UFC 255 main event. I understand why this is the case, but I don’t agree with it. Figueiredo is the champion of the flyweight division and is coming off a very impressive stoppage win over Joseph Benevidez. The fight wasn’t remotely close. Figueiredo won by submission in the first round and knocked down Benevidez three times prior to getting the finish. Benevidez knocked out Perez, so people figure to look at UFC math and assume that means Perez will get finished by Figueiredo.
Figueiredo knocking out Perez here is definitely in play. However, I don’t think there is a path to victory for Figueiredo outside of an early finish. He doesn’t have the best cardio, and we have seen him get gassed in the third round of previous fights. Last year Figueiredo was dominated on the ground in a fight against Jussier Formiga and didn’t have anything left by the end of the second round. Perez is a much more active fighter than Figueiredo, landing 4.68 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.80 for Figueiredo. As long as Perez isn’t finished early, this is his fight to win. There is a case that Perez is the deserving favorite in this matchup because of cardio and output advantages.
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