The UFC is back in Las Vegas for another Fight Night card. On Saturday, Paul Felder fights Rafael dos Anjos in a high-stakes fight in the Lightweight division. Here are some UFC odds and UFC betting picks that stand out for the weekend’s Felder vs dos Anjos card.
UFC Odds + Betting Picks for UFC Fight Night: Felder vs dos Anjos
UFC Betting Pick: Roque Martinez +205
In no way am I for Roque Martinez in this fight. Instead, I am against Don’tale Mayes as a heavy favorite. This is the sort of low-level heavyweight fight where anything can happen. Amongst the possibilities of anything includes nothing. This is a rare heavyweight find that doesn’t have massive odds to finish inside the distance. It is nearly a coin flip for this to go to decision per the current odds. This leads me to believe that we are in store for a really sloppy heavyweight fight that could end up taking place in the clinch for large stretches.
With everything I said above in mind, this will likely be a close fight. Neither Martinez nor Mayes belong in the UFC, and neither has a win in the organization. Mayes was also favored in his last fight against Rodrigo Nascimento, a fight he ended up losing by submission in the second round. If one of these guys doesn’t get an early finish, we could see a staring contest between two gassed heavyweights. The line is too wide for a fight that I think has a very uncertain outcome.
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UFC Betting Pick: Abdul Razak Alhassan To Win In Round 1 +105
Due to legal issues, Alhassan had a long layoff from fighting in the UFC. After nearly two years away from the sport, he returned earlier in the year and lost to Mounir Lazzez in a bout that won Fight of The Night. I don’t knock Alhassan much for that fight. Not only was out of the Octagon for a while, I think Lazzez will end up as a very solid fighter. Alhassan made a good account of himself and looked really dangerous in the first round. He landed a dozen or so shots that would have knocked out lesser fighters than Lazzez.
Alhassan has 10 career MMA wins. Of those 10 wins, all of them are first-round finishes. He’s a fighter with a very defined path of victory in his fights. Alhassan has massive power, comes out swinging and live or dies with an early knockout. This makes it weird to see such a big disparity between his moneyline odds and his odds of winning in the first round. Alhassan is a -230 favorite, so considering how he has won all of his fights, the first round prop is a strong value at plus money.
UFC betting Pick: Rafael dos Anjos To Win By Decision +150
We have an interesting Main Event this week. Dos Anjos was scheduled to take on Islam Makhachev, who was forced to withdraw from the card due to an injury. This left dos Anjos without an opponent and the card without a Main Event. Then there was an odd turn. Paul Felder, who was slated to work the card in the commentary booth, stepped up with less than a week’s notice to take the fight.
Felder is always game, but it’s fair to question how prepared he is for this fight taking it on such short notice. After his last fight, Felder said he wasn’t even sure if he would ever fight again. This makes me lean a bit more towards dos Anjos in a fight that I would have favored him in during normal circumstances. Dos Anjos is generally a higher-output fighter of the two. Even if his recent fights don’t bear this out, it’s because dos Anjos has fought wrestling-based fighters that were able to hold him down. This won’t happen in this fight. It is likely to take place on the feet, although if it does go the ground, it will be because dos Anjos initiated a takedown. He lands 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to 0.25 for Felder.
I lean strongly towards dos Anjos in this fight, but I don’t think his odds of finishing Felder are great. Felder is incredibly tough and difficult to put away. In 22 career fights, Felder has never gotten knocked out or submitted. His only loss inside the distance came from a doctor’s stoppage. This is why I like taking the improved odds of dos Anjos by decision as opposed to his moneyline odds.
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