The UFC is back in Las Vegas for another Fight Night card. On Saturday, Thiago Santos fights Glover Teixeira in a high-stakes fight in the Light Heavyweight division. The winner could go on to fight for the title next year. Here are a couple of UFC odds and UFC betting picks that stand out for the weekend’s Santos vs Teixeira card at Fight Night 13.
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UFC Betting + Picks for UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Teixeira
UFC Betting Pick: Tanner Boser To Win By Decision +165
Even though Boser won his last two fights inside the distance, I don’t think this is something to expect from him. The wins came over Raphael Pessoa and Phillipe Lins, who are low-level heavyweights. Prior to these fights, Boser was viewed as a rare heavyweight who often went to the scorecards. Even on the regional season, he wasn’t exactly running through lesser competition. Of his 25 career fights, Boser has gone to decision 12 times. This is an extremely high rate for a heavyweight.
This is the same position we have seen Andrei Arlovski in countless times over the past few years. A veteran of the game, Arlovski is a former heavyweight champion and has 48 career fights. Even though durability frequently comes up as a concern due to his mileage, Arlovski is more durable than the public thinks. He has one loss by knockout in his last 10 fights and that was to an elite power puncher in Jairzinho Rozenstruik. All of this leads me to think that the most likely outcome is a decision win for Boser.
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UFC Betting Pick: Darren Elkins To Win By Submission +340
Watching Eduardo Garagorri’s first two UFC fights, one thing is very evident. He does not have good takedown defense. Humberto Bandenay was able to take him down four times and Ricardo Ramos got him down to the mat twice himself. In total, Garagorri has a 53% takedown defense. This opens up a path for him to end up on his back and Elkins has an under rated ground game.
We haven’t seen Elkins on the ground a ton lately and he’s mostly known for trading shots on the feet. This is why he’s nicknamed The Damage. As if the nickname wasn’t bad enough, he also has it tattooed across his chest. It is possibly the worst tattoo I have ever seen. This aside, Elkins is a brown belt and his last win in the UFC came via submission. He’s also more than willing to wrestle and lands 2.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. Given Elkins’ ability to land takedowns and Garagorri’s lacking takedown defense, it’s not hard to see this fight playing out on the ground. In theory, this gives Elkins plenty of attempts to finish the fight with a sub.
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UFC betting Pick: Glover Teixeira To Win By Submission +580
The line in Main Event looks a bit off to me. Thiago Santos is coming off a decent showing against Jon Jones in a title fight which some people thought he won. The problem is that he banged up both of his legs in the fight, resulting in double knee surgery. This has kept Santos out of the octagon for well over a year. This adds a bit of variance to the fight since I am not sure how diminished Santos is. Maybe he’s back to 100% but maybe he isn’t. There’s no way to know but the line suggests that Santos is at full health and that isn’t a certainty.
If Teixeira wins, I expect him to win via grappling. He isn’t going to win to stay on the feet at range with Santos, so the clear game plan here is to get inside and work his takedown game. Considering we saw Eryk Anders takedown Santos six times on short rest, I don’t have much doubt that Teixeira can land takedowns as long as he doesn’t get knocked out on the way in. Of Santos’ six losses in the UFC, two are via submission. I think this is the most likely path to victory for Teixeira and the odds are long here.
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