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MMA DFS Fight Breakdown + Analysis | UFC Vegas 10 | Michelle Waterson vs. Angela Hill

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Jason Floyd and Pete Rogers break down UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Aldana | MMA DFS Strategy Show | FREE UFC DFS picks | DraftKings + FanDuel

Hello, UFC fans. This weekend we have a 12-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. The main GPP has $50,000 going to first place with a total of $200,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some MMA DFS picks.


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Bryan Barberena $9,000 vs. Anthony Ivy $7.200

Bryan Barberena

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 6-foot-0
  • Weight: 170 lbs
  • Reach: 72.5 in.
  • Record: 14-7-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 49%
  • Betting Odds: -270

Barberena has not competed since June 2019. In September 2019, Barberena underwent back surgery to repair nerve damage. He is currently 1-3 in his last four fights and is coming off a knockout loss to Randy Brown at UFC Greenville. Therefore, he desperately needs to get back on track in this fight. In this fight, I expect Barberena to come out motivated and ready to make some noise. He will bite down on his mouthpiece and keep coming forward with a barrage of heavy punches.

 Anthony Ivy

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6-foot-2
  • Weight: 185 lbs
  • Reach: 74 in.
  • Record: 8-3-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: +210

Ivy is coming off a TKO loss to Christian Aguilera in his UFC debut, which snapped a five-fight winning streak. He is a well-round fighter, although in his debut he was not able showcase his skills due to the 59-second TKO. In this fight, Ivy will need to control the center of the cage, although I expect the pressure and pace Barberena brings will be to much for Ivy to withstand.

My preferred play is Barberena. I expect he will be ready physically and mentally to reestablish his place in the UFC welterweight division.

MMA DFS Pick: Bryan Barberena via Second-Round KO/TKO.

Bobby Green $9,100 vs. Alan Patrick $7,100

Bobby Green

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs
  • Reach: 71 in.
  • Record: 26-10-1
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Betting Odds: -255

Green is coming in on a two-fight win streak. His pressure-style game, cutting off the cage and throwing high volume, should be able to give Patrick trouble.. He will have a big advantage in this fight with the forward pressure he displays. Green’s entire fighting style is based on moving forward nonstop. In this fight, Green will look to bring heavy pressure and high-volume boxing output, which will be more than Patrick can withstand for three rounds.

Alan Patrick

  • Age: 37
  • Height: 5-foot-9
  • Weight: 155 lbs
  • Reach: 74 in.
  • Record: 15-2-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 43%
  • Betting Odds: +200

Patrick is a well-round fighter, although in this fight Green is more experienced. He is coming off a knockout loss to Scott Holtzman at UFC 229 in 2018, which is the last time he has stepped into the Octagon. Patrick is competing for the first time in two years, so there will be some rust to shake off. In this fight, Patrick will need to disrupt Green’s pressure and high volume. His best shot at beating Green is getting this fight to the mat. Though Green does have nine wins via submission, getting him to the mat is still Patrick’s best path to victory.

My preferred play is Green. I expect Green’s pressure and boxing to give Patrick serious trouble, which Patrick will not be able to overcome.

MMA DFS Pick: Bobby Green vis Second-Round TKO/KO.

Billy Quarantillo $9,300  vs. Kyle Nelson $6,900

Billy Quarantillo

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs
  • Reach: 70 in.
  • Record: 14-2-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 81%
  • Betting Odds: -250

Quarantillo is a pressure fighter. He will walk his opponent down and throw in volume. He will throw nasty knees to the body and head from the clinch, where he is able to hurt his opponents and looks to finish them. Quarantillo will throw a hook combination and will mix in uppercuts. His wrestling is elite, and he will attack with a dangerous submission game once on the mat. Quarantillo is averaging 7.43 significant strikes per minute with a 79% accuracy rate. I expect Quarantillo to walk Nelson down while bringing forward pressure and high volume.

 

Kyle Nelson

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs
  • Reach: 71 in.
  • Record: 13-3-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 36%
  • Betting Odds: +195

Nelson is a balanced fighter with knockout power, and he is willing to stand and trade with his opponents. He is a solid grappler with elite scrambling skills and always seems to gain top control. Quarantillo is a striking monster, so Nelson will need to get this fight to the mat for any chance for a victory. This is a fight you should have both sides of due to the striking power and knockout upside they both possess.

My preferred play is Quarantillo, but I feel both fighters have paths to victory.

MMA DFS Pick: Billy Quarantillo via Third-Round TKO/KO.

Ottman Azaitar $7,700 vs. Khama Worthy $8,500

Ottman Azaitar

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5-foot-7
  • Weight: 155 lbs
  • Reach: 71 in.
  • Record: 12-0-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 51%
  • Betting Odds: +105

Azaitar has displayed brutal power with fast hands and precision. He is a dangerous striker with nine knockout wins and two submissions. Azaitar is extremely aggressive. He will push forward while throwing power shots and bringing heavy pressure. Azaitar is a former Brave FC lightweight champion and formerly was a Thai boxing master sport. I expect this to be a close fight due to both fighters’ power and striking abilities.

Khama Worthy

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 5-foot-9
  • Weight: 155 lbs
  • Reach: 74 in.
  • Record: 16-6-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 41%
  • Betting Odds: -135

Worthy is coming in on an impressive knockout victory over Devonte Smith, making a huge statement as an underdog in his UFC debut. He took this fight on four days’ notice. Worthy is an aggressive power striker, possessing knockout power in his hands. Worthy is well rounded with solid skills. His grappling is strong and his ground and pound dangerous, which can finish his opponents in a hurry. I expect this to be a striking battle. Worthy will need to keep Azaitar at distance and avoid his powerful shots.

My lean is Azaitar, but I expect this fight to be full of fireworks with both fighters having paths to victory. This could be the fight of the night.

MMA DFS Pick: Ottman Azaitar via Third-Round KO/TKO.

Michelle Waterson $8,000 vs. Angela Hill $8,200

Michelle Waterson

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 5-foot-2
  • Weight: 115 lbs
  • Reach: 62 in.
  • Record: 17-8-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 53%
  • Betting Odds: -105

Waterson is a well-rounded fighter, using an attack of punches, kicks and knees to keep her opponents moving backwards. She is technical on her feet, using her flashy karate style attack to keep her opponents guessing. Waterson has a solid ground game and a sneaky submission attack. This is where she will have the clear advantage over Hill. In this fight, Waterson will need to get this fight to the mat.

Angela Hill

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 5-foot-2
  • Weight: 115 lbs
  • Reach: 64.5 in.
  • Record: 12-8-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Betting Odds: -125

Hill will have an advantage with her high amount of activity she displays in the cage. She is a former professional kickboxer, stepping into the Octagon for the fourth time this year. Hill has nasty body kicks that can inflict damage on her opponents, and she will throw a nasty jab, overhand right combination that can put her opponents down. I expect Hill to use her kickboxing and nasty jab to keep Waterson at distance, while utilizing her solid striking game plan to seal a victory.

My preferred play is Hill. I expect Hill’s striking and volume to carry her to a unanimous decision, while her takedown defense will keep this fight off the mat.

MMA DFS Pick: Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision.


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