MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Plays for UFC 249 | May 9

Hello UFC fans, it’s good to have UFC back and I hope everyone is doing well. This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Jacksonville, including a main event between Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson and Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje. The main GPP has $200,000 going to first place with a total of $1,000,000 being paid out. The following are the fights I feel have the most upside. Let’s dig into some MMA DFS analysis.


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Aleksei Oleinik $7,000 vs. Fabricio Werdum $9,200

Aleksei Oleinik

  • Age: 42
  • Height: 6-foot-2
  • Weight: 240 lbs.
  • Reach: 80 in.
  • Record: 58-13-1
  • Striking Accuracy: 49%
  • Betting Odds: +250

Oleinik is a dangerous submission specialist and he is an unorthodox striker that seems to always find a way to get the fight to the mat. He throws an overhand right with power and will mix in uppercuts and dangerous knees. Oleinik is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Ricardo Liborio. He has 45 submission victories in his career, and I think his best path to victory is to keep this fight standing, although he seems most comfortable on the mat and I’m sure he will be trying to take Werdum down.

Fabricio Werdum

  • Age: 42
  • Height: 6-foot-3
  • Weight: 231 lbs.
  • Reach: 77 in.
  • Record: 23-8-1
  • Striking Accuracy: 56%
  • Betting Odds: -325

Werdum is a four-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion and is coming into this fight after serving a two-year suspension from the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency after failing a drug test in April of 2018. He called out Oleinik, saying that his jiu-jitsu is better, and I think this will be a very interesting fight to watch. I think this fight will hit the mat early and often, therefore we could have a nice fight for DFS purposes. Both fighters are capable of a submission win.

My preferred play is Werdum, but don’t sleep on Oleinik as he is dangerous and capable of pulling off the victory.

MMA DFS Pick: Fabricio Werdum via Second-Round Submission.

Anthony Pettis $8,200 vs. Donald Cerrone $8,000

Anthony Pettis

  • Age:33
  • Height 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 72.5 in.
  • Record: 22-10-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 46%
  • Betting Odds: -150

Petts is one of the most exciting kickboxers in the game and his kicks are fast, his left body kick is nasty and dangerous. He is a third-degree black belt in Taekwondo and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Daniel Wanderley. When Pettis gets pressured, his kicks are much less effective and I think Cerrone will be looking to bring the pressure, which means Pettis will have to be very technical in his striking to slow him down. I think Pettis’ best path to victory is keeping this fight standing, while looking to chop down Cerrone’s legs and setting up a roundhouse kick to the head.


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Donald Cerrone

  • Age: 37
  • Height: 6-foot-1
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 73 in.
  • Record: 36-14-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 47%
  • Betting Odds: +120

Cerrone is more of a traditional Muay Thai striker and relies heavily on his jab. He has lighting-quick leg kicks that can be dangerous to his opponents when landed clean. Cerrone is an underrated grappler who has tremendously improved his skills in recent years. I look for him to come out with a purpose in this fight and let everyone know he has not lost his drive for the taste of victory. His best path is to take this fight to the mat where he is dangerous and can submit his opponents with a nasty armbar or rear naked choke.

My preferred play is Cerrone, but I think Pettis has a good shot if Cerrone has trouble finding his rhythm.

MMA DFS Pick: Donald Cerrone via Second-Round Submission.

Greg Hardy $8,600 Vs. Yorgan De Castro $7,600

Greg Hardy

  • Age:31
  • Height: 6-foot-4
  • Weight: 265 lbs.
  • Reach: 80.5 in.
  • Record: 5-2-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 45%
  • Betting Odds: -205

Hardy is a former NFL standout; he has transitioned nicely to the UFC. He is an athletic heavyweight with very good agility and movement in the octagon. Hardy will throw a nice jab and has power in his hands that will put his opponents to sleep. In his fight against Volkov he showed much more patience in his striking and his all-around approach in octagon. I think Hardy’s best path to victory is using the patience he displayed in his last fight once again by setting up his opponent for head kicks and his powerful overhand left.

Yorgan De Castro

  • Age:33
  • Height: 6-foot-0
  • Weight: 250 lbs.
  • Reach: 74 in.
  • Record: 6-0-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: +165

De Castro specifically asked for this fight. He throws nice and powerful leg kicks; his calf kicks are nasty and will hurt his opponents. He throws a powerful overhand right that is dangerous when landed clean. I think De Castro’s best path to victory is to keep Hardy at distance and use his calf kicks to take his legs away.

My preferred play is Hardy. I think if he can weather the leg assault and be patience in setting up his strikes, he will get the victory.

MMA DFS Pick: Greg Hardy via Second-Round TKO/KO.

Jeremy Stephens $7,300 vs. Calvin Kattar $8,900

Jeremy Stephens

  • Age:33
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 145 lbs.
  • Reach: 71 in.
  • Record: 28-17-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 40%
  • Betting Odds: +205

Stephens comes out guns blazing, always trying to destroy his opponents fast. He throws nasty low kicks in attempt in slowing his opponents down and utilizes his double jab to keep them at a distance. Stephens will attack the body with a double jab, overhand right combination that is dangerous and nasty in punishing his opponents. I think Stephens’ best path to victory would be to use his jab, double jab and keep Kattar at distance, then use leg kicks to slow him down and attack the body.

Calvin Kattar

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5-foot-9
  • Weight: 145 lbs.
  • Reach: 72 in.
  • Record: 20-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 41%
  • Betting Odds: -265

Kattar will be looking to rebound from his decision lost to Zabit Magomedsharipov. He is good at maintaining range with his punches and will use his jab, overhand right combination followed up with a nasty left hook. When Kattar finds his range, it most always will be disastrous for his opponents. I think Kattar’s best path to victory will be finding his range and staying away from Stephens leg assault.

My preferred is Kattar. As I said, when he finds his range, it can be devastating for his opponents. But do not sleep on Stephens, his power is dangerous and will put his opponents to sleep.

MMA DFS Pick: Calvin Kattar via Second-Round TKO/KO


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Francis Ngannou $9,100 vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik $7,100

Francis Ngannou

Age:33

Height: 6-foot-3

Weight: 250 lbs.

Reach: 83 in.

Record: 14-3-0

Striking Accuracy: 38%

Betting Odds: -275

Ngannou is a big scary heavyweight, possibly possessing the most power in the division. He will walk his opponents down; being patient in picking his strikes. Ngannou throws a left hook, right uppercut combination that will put his opponents lights out in a hurry. He is an extremely poor grappler, so Ngannou’s best path to victory is keeping this fight standing using his patience and counter striking to wear his opponent down.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Age: 32

Height: 6-foot-3

Weight: 242 lbs.

Reach: 78 in.

Record: 10-0-0

Striking Accuracy: N/A

Betting Odds: +215

Rozenstruik has nice stand up and throws a jab, overhand right combination with power. He will throw heavy leg kicks and will mix in head kicks. Rozenstruik has a nasty left hook, right uppercut combination that is dangerous. His grappling is poor and takedown defense is nonexistent. I think Rozenstruik’s best path to victory is keeping Ngannou at distance and throwing his heavy leg kicks in attempt of wearing him down.

My preferred play is Ngannou. I think if he uses his patience and lands solid counter strikes, he should be able to edge out a win, possibly a knockout finish. But I would have a few lineups with Rozenstruik because you can’t ignore the power he possesses in his hands.

MMA DFS Pick: Francis Ngannou via ThirdRound TKO/KO.

Henry Cejudo $8,800 vs. Dominick Cruz $7,400

Henry Cejudo

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 5-foot-3
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 64 in.
  • Record: 15-2-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 45%
  • Betting Odds: -240

Cejudo is an elite wrestler, an Olympic Gold medalist in freestyle wrestling. He has nasty single, double legs and will use feints and fakes in setting them up. Once Cejudo gets side control, he will start landing heavy body shots that wears on his opponents. From top position Cejudo uses his nasty ground and pound that can finish his opponents. Cejudo’s best path to victory will be to use his elite wrestling and control this fight on the mat.

Dominick Cruz

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 5-foot-7
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 68 in.
  • Record: 22-2-0
  • Striking Accuracy: N/A
  • Betting Odds: +190

Cruz is an elite striker with sneaky, slippery movement that is hard for his opponents to land solid strikes. His career has been overshadowed somewhat due to him seemingly being injury prone. Cruz is an all-around solid fighter; I think we are in for a treat in this fight. He throws nasty left, right hook combinations with power. Cruz comes right out and starts walking his opponents down, always moving forward while throwing one-twos, jab and hook combinations. I think Cruz’s best path to victory is using his tricky movement while throwing heavy combinations.

My preferred play is Cejudo, but I think this should be a remarkably interesting and fun fight to watch. I would have both side of this fight for sure.

MMA DFS Pick: Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Decision.

Tony Ferguson $8,700 vs, Justin Gaethje $7,500

Tony Ferguson

Age:35

Height: 5-foot-9

Weight: 155 lbs.

Reach; 76.5 in.

Striking Accuracy: 45%

Betting Odds: -190

Ferguson is a very well-rounded fighter; he seems to be a caged monster inside the octogen at times. He is pure volume, throwing uppercuts, straight-right hand combinations to the body and head. Ferguson throws a nasty jab that will do damage to his opponents. He will walk his opponents down while throwing a barrage of combinations. I think Ferguson’s best path to victory is taking this fight to the mat where he is an elite submission grappler.

Justin Gaethje

Age: 31

Height: 5-foot-9

Weight: 155 lbs.

Reach: 70 in.

Striking Accuracy: 50%

Betting Odds: +155

Gaethje is a pressure fighter. He is always coming forward with high guard. He will take damage in order to land shots and break his opponents down. Gaethje has huge stopping power in his hands, he will take big shots just to be able to counter strike with his power. He is a good wrestler; Gaethje was an All-American in college, but as for now, he does not seem interested in making wrestling part of his game. I think Gaethje’s best path to victory is using his movement to avoid taking damage from Ferguson on his exchanges.

My Preferred play Is Ferguson, but I think Gaethje has a real shot to win. I think this will be an exciting fight to watch. You should have both sides when building your lineups.

MMA DFS Pick: Tony Ferguson via Fourth-Round Submission


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