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Inside the Octagon: UFC DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier 12/11/21




This weekend the UFC is live at T-Mobile Arena with an exciting lightweight title fight between Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier. Here I will offer the fights that have the most upside for UFC DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks and analysis for UFC 269.

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UFC 269: Oliveira vs Poirier UFC DFS Picks

Jordan Wright $6,800 vs. Bruno Silva $9,400

Jordan Wright

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6-foot-2
  • Weight: 185 lbs.
  • Reach: 77 ins
  • Record: 12-1-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 60%
  • Betting Odds: +270

All of Wright’s wins have come inside the distance, seven of them via knockout. Wright bounced back from his knockout loss to Anthony Hernandez on the Contender Series, though Hernandez failed a drug test, which turned the result into a no-contest. He returned to the LFA with a knockout victory over Gabriel Checco. Wright finished Ike Villanueva in 91 seconds in a late notice fight in August. The pressure from Buckley caused problems for Wright in his last bout, as did Wright’s lack of defensive awareness that ended in a second-round knockout loss. Wright’s striking technique will not be enough to compensate for Silva’s one-shot power and durability.

Bruno Silva

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 6-foot-0
  • Weight: 185 lbs.
  • Reach: 74 ins
  • Record: 21-6-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 59%
  • Betting Odds: -355

Silva is coming off back-to-back knockout wins over Wellington Turman and Andrew Sanchez. He likes to stand square and swing for the fences, overwhelming his opponents with huge power and high volume. Silva is a knockout artist, although his technique is lacking, but he makes up for it with his one-shot power. Silva will come out with smothering pressure while throwing huge power shots looking to end Wright’s night early. Both fighters will have their durability and cardio tested in this fight.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Silva. This fight will be an absolute war, and either fighter could get the finish, but Silva’s one-shot power should be too much for Wright.

UFC DFS Pick: Bruno Silva via Second-Round KO/TKO.

Augusto Sakai $7,900 vs. Tai Tuivasa $8,300

Augusto Sakai

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6-foot-2
  • Weight: 265 lbs.
  • Reach: 77 ins
  • Record: 15-3-1
  • Striking Accuracy: 48%
  • Betting Odds: -105

Sakai takes a more technical approach where he will try and break his opponents down over the course of a few rounds. That said, Sakai has struggled to implement that against big, powerful, athletic fighters. If Sakai can survive the barrage of Tuivasa and get this fight into the third round, then Sakai could have a path to victory. However, Tuivasa’s power and pressure should overwhelm Sakai from the start and end in another a first- or second-round finish.

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Tai Tuivasa

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 6-foot-2
  • Weight: 264 lbs.
  • Reach: 75 ins
  • Record: 13-3-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Betting Odds: -115

Tuivasa let the heavyweight division know he was here to stay in his UFC debut in November 2017 when he landed a supremely athletic flying knee that put Rashad Coulter’s lights out. Tuivasa is currently riding a three-fight winning streak, with all three coming via knockout in Round 1. Tuivasa should continue his winning ways in this fight with his power shots and dominant striking.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Tuivasa. Tuivasa should make short work of Sakai on his way to a fourth straight win via knockout.

UFC DFS Pick: Tai Tuivasa via First-Round KO/TKO.

Raulian Paiva 9,100 vs. Sean O’Malley $7,100

Raulian Paiva

  • Age: 26
  • Height: 5-foot-7
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 69.5 ins.
  • Record: 21-3-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 43%
  • Betting Odds: +240

Paiva will be looking to stop O’Malley and make his name more known in the UFC. He will be facing a height and reach disadvantage, so bringing heavy pressure while trying to avoid O’Malley’s nasty front kicks and powerful right will be key. Paiva will need to check O’Malley’s power kicks and keep shooting for takedowns in this fight. If Paiva can disrupt O’Malley’s standup and drag him to the mat, then he could do some real damage from top position. However, this should be a close and exciting fight between two solid strikers.

Sean O’Malley

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5-foot-9
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 72 ins.
  • Record: 14-1-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 62%
  • Betting Odds: -310

O’Malley has bounced back nicely after suffering an injury in his first career loss to Marlon Vera. He rebounded with a knockout win over Thomas Almeida in March, and his most recent victory was a knockout win against Kris Moutinho at UFC 264. O’Malley has 10 wins via knockout, one via submission and three via decision. O’Malley will patiently pick Paiva apart, using his height and reach advantage and his powerful right hand to finish him. That said, O’Malley is a core play for DFS purposes, even at his high price, because the solid value on this card makes him affordable

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The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is O’Malley. If Paiva can get O’Malley to the mat and disrupt his rhythm, then he could do some real damage. However, O’Malley should be patient with his striking and pick Paiva apart.

UFC DFS Pick: Sean O’Malley via Second-Round KO/TKO.

Amanda Nunes $9,500 vs. Julianna Pena $6,500

Amanda Nunes

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 5-foot-7
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 69 ins.
  • Record: 21-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 51%
  • Betting Odds: -1050

Nunes is the top pound-for-pound female fighter in the UFC and will be making her sixth defense of the bantamweight title. She is currently riding a 12-fight winning streak, with her most recent coming via first-round submission against Megan Anderson in March. Nunes is an extremely dangerous striker with powerful hands and vicious ground and pound. She will have the clear advantage in this fight, no matter where it takes place — on the feet or on the mat. Nunes will come out pushing the pace and bringing heavy pressure on her way to another first-round finish.

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Julianna Pena

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5-foot-5
  • Weight: 135 lbs.
  • Reach: 69 ins.
  • Record: 11-4-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 47%
  • Betting Odds: +630

Pena is not an elite talent, so she will not be able to match Nunes’ powerful hands and striking. However, Pena will be looking to chance the course of history by defeating Nunes at UFC 269. Pena has good grappling skills, but taking down a fighter of Nunes’ caliber will be a huge task. She will not be able to stand and bang with Nunes; Pena’s only path to victory will be by grappling and looking for a submission. That said, Nunes has never been submitted by her opponent in the UFC, so her skill set and powerful striking will outclass Pena and finish her early in this fight.

The preferred play on DraftKings and FanDuel is Nunes. If Pena can survive Nunes’ opening onslaught, then she could possibly make it into Round 2, maybe 3. But Nunes’ powerful hands and dangerous submission game will be too much for Pena to withstand.

UFC DFS Pick: Amanda Nunes via First-Round Submission.

Charles Oliveira 7,600 vs. Dustin Poirier $8,600

Charles Oliveira

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 74 ins.
  • Record: 31-8-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Betting Odds: +138

Oliveira is currently riding a nine-fight winning streak; he is deserving of this title opportunity. He showed that in his last bout against Michael Chandler. He is a dangerous submission specialist with 14 tapouts to his name and should clearly have the advantage on the mat. Over Oliveira’s nine fights, he has showed crazy growth in his all-around game. If Oliveira can weather the storm and aggressiveness of Poirier and get this fight to the mat, that is where Oliveira will have the clear advantage. Oliveira’s ground game against Tony Ferguson was extremely impressive, as was the way he was able to neutralize a wrestler of Ferguson’s caliber. If Oliveira gets Poirier to the mat, Oliveira could add another submission victory to his record.

Dustin Poirier

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5-foot-8
  • Weight: 155 lbs.
  • Reach: 72 ins.
  • Record: 28-6-0
  • Striking Accuracy: 38%
  • Betting Odds: -170

Poirier looked well-polished in last three bouts, using nasty calf kicks to set up the knockout wins over Conor McGregor and a decision win over Dan Hooker. This is a huge spot for Poirier, especially if he can defeat Oliveira by finish. Poirier will bring a game plan to keep this fight standing, looking to disrupt Oliveira’s rhythm. Poirier has seven wins via submission, but if this fight hits the mat, Oliveira will have the clear advantage.

The lean on DraftKings and FanDuel is Oliveira. Poirier is super dangerous on the feet with his high-pressure style. That said, if Oliveira can get heavy pressure, get this fight to the mat and disrupt Poirier’s rhythm, he could possibly get another tapout.

UFC DFS Pick: Charles Oliveira via Third-Round Submission.

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