The Takedown: UFC DFS Breakdown + Analysis | Fight Island 8 Chiesa vs. Magny

Welcome to Inside the Octagon, UFC fans. This weekend we have a 12-fight card in Abu Dhabi, including a main event between Michael Chiesa and Neil Magny. The main GPP has $50,000 going to first place, with a total of $200,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for MMA DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks for Fight Island 8.

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UFC Fight Island 8: DraftKings + FanDuel UFC DFS Picks

Core MMA DFS Plays

Tom Breese | DraftKings: $8,200, FanDuel $19

Breese is coming into this fight off an impressive first-round knockout performance against K.B. Bhullar back in October. His fighting resume shows that he has five wins via knockout, six via submission and one via decision. Breese also has eight first-round finishes on his resume. He is an aggressive fighter who will push the pace while looking for the knockout. Omari Akhmedov could cause Breese problems in the early stages of this fight, but Breese’s aggressiveness and power striking could wear Akhmedov down late in the first round. Awesemo’s UFC DFS Projections give Breese 60% win odds and a 34% chance for a knockout.

Michael Chiesa | DraftKings: $7,900, FanDuel: $15

Chiesa has been on a roll with three solid wins over Carlos Condit, Diego Sanchez and Rafael dos Anjos. Since making the move up to welterweight, Chiesa is looking like a serious contender for the title. This fight with Neil Magny will be a good test for Chiesa because Magny is also on a three-fight winning streak and looking strong. Magny will have height and reach advantage over Chiesa, but I expect Chiesa will look to make this a grappling fight, which should give him solid upside on DraftKings with the new scoring. Our UFC DFS fighter projections give Chiesa 43% win odds.


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Mid-Priced MMA DFS Picks

Dalcha Lungiambula| DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $16

Lungiambula has been patiently waiting to get back in the Octagon after having fights with Karl Roberson and Isi Fitikefu fall through. He has solid power in his hands and will likely look to make this a striking battle. However, Lungiambula will have to defend the takedown attempts of Markus Perez to keep this fight standing. If Lungiambula can keep this fight from hitting the canvas and Perez will stand and trade, then Lungiambula will secure another first-round knockout victory. Our UFC DFS projections give 56% win odds with a 43% chance for a knockout.

Tyson Nam | DraftKings: $8,400, FanDuel: $20

Nam is coming into this matchup off of back-to-back knockout wins over Zarrukh Adashev and Jerome Rivera. This looks be a solid matchup on paper, but Nam will have the clear striking advantage over Matt Schnell. That said, Schnell will have the grappling advantage over Nam, although Schnell’s willingness to stand and trade will be his undoing in this fight. At $8,400, Nam has solid upside for DFS purposes due to his potential for a first- or second-round knockout. Awesemo’s UFC DFS Projections give Nam 53% win odds with a 40% chance for a knockout.

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 Value MMA DFS Picks

Mason Jones | DraftKings: $7,400, FanDuel: $11

Jones is coming into this matchup after becoming the Cage Warriors lightweight division championship and defending his title successfully. This should be an exciting fight between two extremely aggressive fighters. That said, Mike Davis has not stepped into the Octagon in over a year, so it is very possible there will be some ring rust. Jones is a dangerous fighter at close range with nasty elbows and powerful knees. Our UFC DFS projections give Jones 40% win odds.


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