Welcome to The Takedown, UFC fans. This weekend there is a 14-fight card in Las Vegas at the Apex. UFC Vegas 28 will be an exciting card with the potential for multiple finishes, and DraftKings and FanDuel having solid UFC DFS contest. Here I offer the fighters I feel have the most upside for UFC DFS purposes, with the help of Awesemo’s expert UFC DFS projections. So let’s dig into some MMA DFS picks and analysis for UFC Vegas 28.
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Core Play
Manon Fiorot | DraftKings: $8,500, FanDuel: $18
Fiorot will come with high ownership on this slate. However, she is live for a knockout and could easily get it in the first round. If building multiple lineups, have some shares of Tabatha Ricci because of her chances of getting a submission, and she could break the slate if this happens. Fiorot has five wins via knockout and one win via decision, and she should pick Ricci apart on the feet. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give Fiorot 81% win odds and a 52% chance for a knockout.
Mid-Priced Plays
Marcin Tybura | DraftKings: $8,700, FanDuel: $17
Tybura is riding a four-fight winning streak, most recently a knockout victory over Greg Hardy in December. Tybura’s fight with Hardy also earned him Performance of the Night bonus. Tybura is a well-rounded heavyweight that combines powerful striking and nasty front kicks with solid wrestling ability. He has eight wins via knockout, six via submission and seven via decision. He should look to empty Walt Harris’ gas tank early, but Tybura will need to avoid the dangerous power of Harris especially in the first round. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give Tybura 62% win odds with a 32% chance for a knockout.
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Jairzinho Rozenstruik | DraftKings: $8,200, FanDuel: $19
Rozenstruik is a kickboxing specialist with huge power in his hands. He is coming into this matchup off a disappointing decision loss to Ciryl Gane in September. Augusto Sakai is a tough and durable fighter, so expect this fight to go to the later rounds. That said, Rozenstruik should wear on Sakai with heavy kicks and precision striking before landing a third-round power shot that sleeps Sakai for the first time in his career. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give Rozenstruik 53% win odds with a 38% chance for a knockout.
Value Play
Santiago Ponzinibbio |DraftKings: $7,900, FanDuel: $15
Ponzinibbio is a risky value play due to Miguel Baeza’s unblemished record. However, Ponzinibbio is a well-rounded fighter; his striking is elite and his grappling is strong. If Ponzinibbio can avoid the counter striking of Baeza, then he has a solid shot at finishing Baeza with his heavy power shots. That said, when building lineups this is a fight you should target both sides due to both fighters’ finishing abilities. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give Ponzinibbio 47% win odds.
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