Turning our sights to UFC Vegas 9, this main event features an exciting bout between Alistair Overeem and Augusto Sakai. Both fighters enter this bout fresh off a win and will look to continue their winning streaks. With a number of exciting prelims also on deck, let’s take a look at the best UFC betting picks, UFC predictions and UFC odds for this week’s card using Awesemo’s Odds Shopper tool.
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UFC Betting Picks + Predictions: Moneyline Winners | 9/4/20
Jalin Turner +145 (BetMGM)
Fresh of a second-round knockout of UFC newcomer Josh Culibao, Turner will look to extend his winning streak against Thiago Moises this weekend. Coming off a win himself, Moises submitted Michael Johnson in the second round of his most recent bout. Both fighters currently sit at 2-2 in the UFC, but Turner enters this fight as an intriguing +145 underdog.
From a size perspective, Turner is massive for the lightweight division. He holds a four-inch height advantage and a seven-inch reach advantage over Moises in this spot. Turner also holds an advantage as a striker. Throwing 5.95 strikes per minute, Turner looks capable of out-working Moises here. Making matters worse, Moises holds a negative striking ratio and absorbs 3.54 strikes per minute.
At this point, both fighters faced solid competition in their losses. Turner in particular fell to Matt Frevola and Vicente Luque. While Turner has been finished three times in his career, all three occurred via knockout. Moises holds a 62% finish rate, but only three occurred via knockout.
While this fight remains very much up for grabs, Turner is a live underdog here at +145.
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Alexander Romanov -129 (BetMGM)
Making his UFC debut, Romanov enter this bout against Marcos Rogeria de Lima as a -129 favorite. Romanov hasn’t fought since February of 2019, but he still holds a number of hypothetical advantages over de Lima.
First of all, Romanov possesses a strong background in wrestling for a heavyweight. He is 11-0 in his professional career, with six wins by submission. On the regional scene, Romanov dominated opponents through takedowns and pure strength. Fortunately for Romanov in this spot, Lima holds just 36% takedown defense and has lost four times via submission.
If this fight stands up, Romanov remains disciplined as a striker. He often involves leg kicks to damage his opponents and subsequently close the distance. Lima is more dangerous as a striker, with 12 knockout wins himself. However, Romanov still holds five knockout wins with paths to victory in both phases of the fight.
While some may shy away from Romanov as a UFC newcomer, he actually holds a few considerable edges in this spot. He is a value at -129.
Sijara Eubanks +128 (FanDuel)
A veteran fighter, Eubanks enters this bout against Karol Rosa at age 35 and a 5-4 professional record. Ten years Rosa’s senior, Eubanks sits at 3-2 in the UFC. While Rosa stands 2-0 in the UFC, Eubanks looks like a potential sharp underdog in this spot.
Looking at the Eubanks’ profile, she continues to face elite competition in the division. Her only two losses came at the hands of Aspen Ladd and Bethe Correia, while Rosa held off Vanessa Melo and Lara Procopio. Notably, Eubanks particularly struggled against Ladd’s grappling, but Rosa prefers to strike.
Digging into the matchup, Eubanks throws the third-most significant strikes on this card at 4.96 per minute. No stranger to striking affairs, Rosa absorbs 7.00 strikes per minute with just 50% striking defense. Eubanks also holds strong grappling skills and averages exactly two takedowns per bout. Rosa possesses strong takedown defense at 100%, but she has only faced seven takedown attempts at the UFC level. Two opponents submitted Rosa on the regional scene, so this outcome is live for Eubanks.
While this fight is a tough decision, Eubanks provides value at her current price of +128.
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