The UFC is in Las Vegas for another Fight Night card on Saturday. The main event for Vegas 16 features Jack Hermansson fighting Marvin Vettori. Hermansson went through a few different opponents before landing on Vettori. He was originally scheduled to fight Darren Till but Till withdrew because of a knee injury. Then the UFC scheduled Hermansson against Kevin Holland in the Main Event. That bout fell through when Holland tested posted for COVID-19. Vettori stepped up, which is how we arrived at our current matchup. The rest of the night is loaded with good spots for UFC betting, I reviewed the full slate of UFC odds for the top UFC betting picks that stand out for the weekend’s Hermansson vs Vettori card.
UFC Odds + Betting Picks Vegas 16: Hermansson vs Vettori
UFC Betting Pick: Jamahal Hill To Win -162
Ovince Saint Preux is my least favorite fighter archetype. He rarely does much of anything and is reliant on finishes to win fights. While OSP is a good submission grappler and should have an advantage on the ground in this fight, it’s difficult to reliably say he even gets the fight into that realm. St. Preux isn’t an aggressive wrestler, landing just 1.23 takedowns per 15 minutes and will simply look to avoid going to the ground. At 37 years old, it’s starting to look like OSP is fighting at an even slower pace than he has throughout his career. He didn’t attempt a takedown in either of his last two fights. This leads me to think this fight play out on the feet where Hill has a massive volume advantage. He lands 7.90 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.64 per minute for OSP. As long as Hill doesn’t get finished, I like him to either win a decision or finish St. Preux late.
UFC betting Pick: Roman Dolidze To Win By Submission +600; Round 1 Submission +1300
There is usually at least one long-odds finish prop that I think has a better chance of hitting than odds suggest. Dolidze is a favorite on Saturday in a fight likely to end inside the distance. After winning by knockout in each of his last four fights, the books expect Dolidze to stand and trade again. This is possible, but he entered MMA as a submission grappler. While Dolidze is starting to fall in love with his hands, his biggest advantage in this fight is still his grappling. Dolidze won each of his first three professional fights by first-round submission which is a live result here. Prior to his MMA career, Dolidze won the FILA World Grappling Championship in 2013. John Allen’s last three losses are all by submission, Dolidze could earn a quick submission if he’s able to take this fight to the ground early.
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UFC betting Pick: Movsar Evloev To Win By Decision -125
Evloev is the biggest favorite on the card and a safe bet to win but I am rarely willing to lay a -650 price tag on a fighter. While I do not like his moneyline number, there are good odds on Evloev winning by decision. It is interesting to see that this fight is nearly -200 to go the distance while Evloev is about even money to win a decision. Those odds don’t line up. Evloev has achieved each of his three UFC victories by decision. He’s a strong wrestler but we haven’t seen him hunt for submissions in his brief UFC career. Evloev has never even attempted a submission in the UFC. This leads me to believe he will take Nate Landwehr down and grind out a victory. Evloev lands three takedowns per 15 minutes and his easiest path to victory is winning on the ground with control.
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