UFC DFS Fight Breakdown + Analysis | UFC Vegas 11 | Colby Covington vs. Tyron Woodley

Hello, UFC fans. This weekend we have a 14-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $300,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS analysis.

Journey Newson $8,400 vs. Randy Costa $7.800

Journey Newson

Age: 31
Height: 5-foot-4
Weight: 135 lbs.
Reach: 67.5 ins.
Record: 9-2-0
Striking Accuracy: 33%
Betting Odds: -140

Newson brought a six-fight win streak into his UFC debut, but he has yet to seal a victory in the Octagon. After losing to Ricardo Ramos in his short-notice debut, he destroyed Domingo Plarte in 38 seconds, but that victory was overturned due to testing positive for marijuana. Newson has solid boxing skills, although his best weapon is his grappling, which we have not seen up to this point. In this fight, I expect we will see Newson lean heavily on his grappling skills, which could lead to a submission victory.

Randy Costa

Age: 26
Height: 5-foot-8
Weight: 135 lbs.
Reach: 73 ins.
Record: 8-3-0
Striking Accuracy: 46%
Betting Odds: +120

Costa is coming in off a first-round knockout victory against Boston Salmon. He has heavy hands that will put his opponents lights out in a hurry. He will have a six-inch reach advantage, which could give Newson some problems. Costa has won all his professional fights and amateur fights via knockout. In this fight, Costa will look to keep this fight standing while using his heavy hands to land the kill shot on Newson.

My lean is Newson. If he can withstand the storm from Costa and seize the takedown opportunity when it presents itself, Newson could choke Costa out.

UFC DFS Pick: Journey Newson via Second-Round Submission.

Kevin Holland $9,100 vs. Darren Stewart $7,200

Kevin Holland

Age: 27
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 8 1 ins.
Record: 18-5-0
Striking Accuracy: 64%
Betting Odds: -255

Holland will have a significant reach advantage over Stewart. He lands 4.65 significant strikes per minute, and his accuracy is over 60%. He is coming in on an impressive knockout win over Joaquin Buckley at UFC Vegas 6. Holland packs devastating power in his hands, although he will need every ounce of that power to finish Stewart. Stewart has never been knocked out in his UFC career. I expect this to be a striking battle, and Holland should be able to keep distance and land often with his reach advantage.

Darren Stewart

Age: 29
Height: 6-foot-0
Weight: 185 lbs.
Reach: 74 ins.
Record: 12-5-0
Striking Accuracy: 44%
Betting Odds: +215

Stewart has won three of his last four in the UFC, the last one being a submission victory over Maki Pitolo at UFC Fight Night on Aug. 8 this year. He has huge power and his counterpunching is dangerous. He can put anyone’s lights out with one shot. Stewart’s wrestling is solid, and he will look to shoot for takedowns if having trouble on the feet. His submission game is highly underrated, even with only one submission win in his career.

My preferred play is Holland. I expect Holland to be able to win striking exchange by utilizing his reach advantage and movement.

UFC DFS Pick: Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision.

Jimmy Walker $8,300 vs. Ryan Spann $7,900

Jimmy Walker

Age: 28
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 205 lbs.
Reach: 82 ins.
Record: 12-0-0
Striking Accuracy: 78%
Betting Odds: -125

Walker has lost two straight bouts, while Spann has four straight wins. The biggest concern with Walker is where is he mentally after back-to-back losses. Walker has struggled mainly with his wrestling in his last two bouts, so let us focus on some of the positives. He is an extremely aggressive fighter with a remarkable sense of timing, and he possesses huge power in his hands. I expect Walker to be mentally and physically prepared for this fight, which could lead to fight of the night.honors.

Ryan Spann

Age: 29
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 205 lbs.
Reach: 79 ins.
Record: 18-5-0
Striking Accuracy: 44%
Betting Odds: +105

Spann is a solid prospect. His grappling is strong and dangerous, as 11 of his 18 victories have come via submission. Spann lands 3.32 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 3.01. He is a well-rounded fighter, although his takedown defense has caused some problems in his career. In this fight, Spann will need to defend strikers better while looking to get this fight to the mat.

UFC DFS Pick: Jimmy Walker via Second-Round KO/TKO.

Khamzat Chimaev $9,400 vs. Gerald Meerschaert $6,800

Khamzat Chimaev

Age: 26
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 75 ins.
Record: 8-0-0
Striking Accuracy: N/A
Betting Odds: -365

Chimaev has absolutely brutalized his opponents with his grinding wrestling style, but Meerschaert will be a big step up in competition. This matchup should let us see if Chimaev is the real deal or if he has simply run over lower-level competition. My belief is Chimaev will prove once again just how dominant and well-rounded of a fighter he is by finishing Meerschaert early in the first round.

Gerald Meerschaert

Age: 32
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 185 lbs.
Reach: 77.5 ins.
Record: 31-13-0
Striking Accuracy: 43%
Betting Odds: +305

Meerschaert throws a nice jab, straight right combination, and he will throw nasty body kicks. He throws a nasty left hook that can down his opponents. Meerschaert has a diverse game with a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a strong kickboxing background. I expect Meerschaert to try to slow Chimaev down using his hard body kicks while looking to shoot and get this fight to the mat.

My preferred play is Chimaev. I expect him to put on another show by finishing Meerschaert early in the first round.

UFC DFS Pick: Khamzat Chimaev via First Round Submission.

Donald Cerrone $7,700 vs. Niko Price $8,500

Donald Cerrone

Age: 37
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 73 ins.
Record: 36-15-0
Striking Accuracy: 46%
Betting Odds: +130

Cerrone is more of a traditional Muay Thai striker and relies heavily on his jab. He has lightning-quick leg kicks that can be dangerous to his opponents. Cerrone is an underrated grappler who has tremendously improved his skills in recent years. I expect him to come out with a fire in his eyes to show everyone he has not lost his drive for the taste of victory. That said, this will not be an easy road for Cerrone. Price hits hard, and if he lands on Cerrone’s suspect chin, the lights will go out.

Niko Price

Age: 30
Height: 6-foot-0
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 76 ins.
Record: 14-4-0
Striking Accuracy: 33%
Betting Odds: +105

Price is an extremely entertaining fighter. He is coming off a TKO loss to Vicente Luque. He likes to push the pace and smother his opponents, willing to take a punch if it means being able to deal damage of his own. Although Price can be wild at times, he packs a ton of power in his hands. I expect Price to push the pace and bring swarming pressure, which could cause Cerrone serious trouble.

My preferred play is Price, although it would not be the first time Cerrone submitted an up-and-coming prospect. But I expect Price to swarm Cerrone with smothering pressure. I would have both sides of this fight for sure.

UFC DFS Picks: Niko Price via Second Round KO/TKO.

Colby Covington $9,300 vs. Tyron Woodley $6,900

Colby Covington

Age: 32
Height: 5-foot-9
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 72 ins.
Record: 15-2-0
Striking Accuracy: 46%
Betting Odds: -360

Covington was the top contender when Kamaru Usman became champion. He stood strong in the battle until he got wobbled and stopped in the fifth round. His Strategy is using the underhook to his advantage. It gives him the ability to level change and attack the lower body. Covington’s striking is on point, as he showed in the fight against Usman when he landed almost 600 strikes in five rounds. I expect Covington to control this fight. He will be the better fighter in every regard.

Tyron Woodley

Age: 38
Height: 5-foot-8
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 74 ins.
Record: 19-5-1
Striking Accuracy: 47 %
Betting Odds: +300

Woodley is patient against the fence. He is always waiting for his opponents to over-commit. This is not what one would expect from an explosive wrestler of Woodley’s caliber. His main weapon is his counter right hand, which can put anyone’s lights out when landed. Woodley will change levels, looking to land his counter right hand or occasionally throwing powerful body kicks. One big concern is Woodley’s cardio. It seems to be on the decline, and Covington is a cardio machine — probably the best in the UFC. In this fight, Woodley’s only chance is to catch Covington with his powerful counter right. Otherwise Covington will be better on the feet and the mat.

My preferred play is Covington. I expect him to use his underhooks and striking to wear Woodley down, and he could possibly finish Woodley in the later rounds.

UFC DFS Pick: Colby Covington via Unanimous Decision.

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