Welcome to The Takedown, UFC fans. Today we are back at the UFC Apex, with an electrifying light heavyweight main event between Thiago Santos vs. Jimmy Walker. Here I offer some of my favorite MMA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel UFC lineups with the help Awesemo’s expert UFC DFS ownership and points projections. So, let’s dig into some MMA DFS picks and analysis for UFC Vegas 38.
UFC Vegas 38: Santos vs. Walker | DraftKings + FanDuel MMA DFS Picks
Top-End Picks
Karol Rosa | DraftKings: $9,300, FanDuel: $22
Rosa is coming into this matchup riding a three-fight winning streak. In those fights, Rosa has scored 108, 109 and 111 points on DraftKings, which makes Rosa a strong place to start your builds. Rosa has knocked out four opponents and submitted another two. I expect Rosa will dominate Bethe Correia for 15 minutes if this fight goes to the judges. However, I expect Rosa will lock in a late submission and land 100-plus significant strikes in this matchup on her way to a dominant performance. Awesemo’s UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel projections give Rosa 83% win odds.
Mid-Priced Picks
Devonte Smith | DraftKings: $8,700, FanDuel: $18
Smith earned his UFC contract with an impressive knockout over Joseph Lowry on the Contender Series back in 2018. In his last four bouts, Smith has three knockouts and a nasty knockout loss at the hands of Khama Worthy at UFC 241. That said, Smith has 10 wins via knockout and one win via decision. Smith has scored 97, 108 and 130 DraftKings points in his three wins, all via early knockout. He is a dangerous striker, with huge power in his hands and can end the fight in a hurry. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give Smith 57% odds with a 43% chance for a knockout.
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Value Picks
Jared Gordon | DraftKings: $7,900, FanDuel: $14
Gordon is coming into this matchup riding a two-fight winning streak, both coming via decision scoring 120 and 95 DraftKings points. He is a high-pace fighter, that will bring heavy forward pressure, in attempts of backing his opponents up. Gordan will need to start quickly and unleash his striking, while looking to catch Joe Solecki early with a big shot. He will need to keep this fight standing and avoid Solecki dangerous ground game to have a solid shot at the victory. For DFS, if you’re playing close to 150 lineups, then have both sides of this fight, because both could score 100-plus in a victory. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give Gordan 45% win odds.
Johnny Walker | DraftKings: $7,400, FanDuel: $16
Walker could easily push his way towards a title shot with a victory over Thiago Santos. If Walker uses his explosiveness smart against Santos and avoids making big mistakes being overly aggressive, then he could get a first-round knockout finish over Santos. The one problem with Walker, is his suspect chin of late being brutally knocked out by Cory Anderson at UFC 244. Furthermore, hitting the mat on two occasions against Ryan Spann in 2020, but Walker was able to come back with a knockout win over Spann in that bout. For DFS, If Walker gets a first-round knockout then he is sure to be on the optimal at $7,400. If you plan to MME, then have both sides of this fight because both have the power to finish in the first round. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give Walker 41% win odds with a 32% chance for a knockout.
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