Welcome to The Takedown, UFC fans. Today we are back at the UFC Apex, with an exciting light heavyweight main event between Paulo Costa vs. Marvin Vettori. Here I offer some of my favorite MMA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel UFC lineups with the help Awesemo’s expert UFC DFS projections. So, let’s dig into some MMA DFS plays and analysis for UFC Vegas 41.
UFC Vegas 41: Costa vs. Vettori | DraftKings + FanDuel MMA DFS Picks
Top-End Picks
Nicolae Negumereanu | DraftKings: $9,100, FanDuel: $19
Negumereanu is a finisher, Ike Villanueva has been knocked out six times and submitted five times. He is also 10 years younger than Villanueva. However, Villanueva still has dangerous power and Negumereanu’s lack of defense could play into Villanueva’s aggressive style in this fight. That said, I expect Negumereanu will have the edge on the mat and will look to lock in an early submission. For DFS, Negumereanu is a solid play with finishing upside and could score very well in this fight. Awesemo’s UFC DFS DraftKings and FanDuel projections give Negumereanu 68% win odds with a 51% chance for a knockout.
Mid-Priced Picks
Jai Herbert | DraftKings: $8,800, FanDuel: $18
Khama Worthy is an excellent matchup for Herbert, who is a sound technical striker. Worthy will come in with reckless abandon swinging for the finish, which will give Herbert the opportunity to pick him apart early. Worthy still has power that can knock his opponents out, but his chin has taken so much damage, suffering seven knockouts thus far in his career. For DFS, Herbert is a strong play based on his finishing ability and technically sound striking. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give Herbert 62% win odds with a 43% chance for a knockout.
Marvin Vettori | DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $22
Vettori is strong and willing to walk through his opponent’s flurry to get inside. Once inside, Vettori is relentless, throwing nasty one-twos to the body and slicing elbows to the head. Vettori has a steel chin and is extremely good at pushing through fatigue. Paulo Costa has the skills to win this fight, but I expect the longer this fight goes the more it will favor Vettori’s high pace and Costa will break at some point. A five-round fight is always good to target for DFS and this one should be full of exciting exchanges that will score well for cash and GPP contests. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give Vettori 63% win odds.
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Value Picks
Alex Caceres | DraftKings: $7,000, FanDuel: $9
This is a risky value play but could payoff big with a Caceres win at such a low price. Caceres is currently enjoying the longest winning streak of his career, with four straight wins — three via decision and one via submission. Caceres’s unusualness in the octagon forces his opponents to adapt to him. He is an extremely hard opponent to prepare for with the unusual slippery style he brings inside the octagon. For DFS, Caceres can lock in a submission and could break the slate if this happens. I expect this fight to be closer than Vegas is predicting. Awesemo’s UFC DFS projections give 28% win odds.
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