Welcome to The Takedown, UFC fans. Today we are back at the Apex in Las Vegas, after a week off with an men’s bantamweight main event between Rob Font vs. Jose Aldo. Here I offer some of my favorite MMA DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel UFC lineups with the help Awesemo’s expert UFC DFS projections. So, let’s dig into some MMA DFS picks and analysis for UFC Vegas 44.
UFC Vegas 44: Font vs. Aldo | DraftKings + FanDuel UFC DFS Picks
Top-End Picks
Brendan Allen | DraftKings: $9,600, FanDuel: $23
Allen is a solid play due to his takedown upside. He has a dangerous submission game and I expect Allen will come out looking for the takedown early and often. That said, when the fight hits the mat, I expect Allen will dominate top control and look for the submission finish early. However, Chris Curtis only needs to land one power shot to pull off the upset. If Allen cannot get this fight to the mat, Curtis has shown, as he did against Phil Hawes, the power he possesses in his hands. For DFS, I expect Allen’s cardio and dangerous submission game will prevail. Although, if building multiple lineups have a few shares of Curtis due to his one-shot power. Awesemo’s projections give Allen 75% win odds with a 44% chance for a knockout.
Mid-Priced Picks
Rob Font | DraftKings: $8,400, FanDuel: $20
Font is currently riding a four-fight winning streak, with impressive wins over Cody Garbrandt and a knockout victory over Marlon Moraes. He is a fantastic boxer with the skills and output to cause problems for Jose Aldo. A win over Aldo would give Font back-to-back wins over former UFC champions and should place him firmly into the title picture. I expect Font’s pressure and solid striking will be too much for Aldo to deal with in a five-round fight. For DFS, Font is a strong play due to his ability to bring smothering pressure and elite boxing, which could send Aldo to the mat late in Round 4. Awesemo’s projections give Font 57% win odds.
Chris Gruetzemacher | DraftKings: $8,200, FanDuel: $15
Gruetzemacher will be looking to add another victory to resume with a win over Claudio Puelles. In his last bout, Gruetzemacher came up huge outlasting Rafa Garcia in route to a unanimous decision victory. Gruetzemacher has solid wresting and solid cardio, which I expect will be all he needs to seal a victory against Puelles. He should be able to pick Puelles apart on his way to a late third-round stoppage. For DFS, Gruetzemacher is a solid play at his price point, due to his output and knockout upside. Awesemo’s projections give Gruetzemacher 51% win odds.
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Value Picks
Jamahal Hill | DraftKings: $7,000, FanDuel: $12
Hill has a 50% finish rate, all coming via knockout. He has huge power behind his shots and can finish his opponents with heavy combinations. Hill’s long frame should allow him to sprawl well against Jimmy Crute. However, Crute’s wrestling could cause huge problems for Hill if this fight hits the mat. Hill will have the advantage on the feet, with his solid footwork that will cause his opponents to overextend, allowing Hill to use his speed, power, and combinations to finish his opponents. For DFS, Hill is a risky play, but at his price point could find himself on the optimal with a knockout victory. Awesemo’s projections give Hill 38% win odds.
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