Hello, UFC fans. This weekend, we have a 10-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Colby Covington and Tyron Woodley. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $300,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fighters I feel have the most upside and value. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks analysis.
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Core Plays
Colby Covington | DraftKings: $9,300, FanDuel: $23
Covington has steadily been improving striking fundamentals in recent fights. In his fight with Kamaru Usman he demonstrated solid body shots and much improved boxing skills. Covington is known for his killer pace he brings inside the Octogon, he is a skilled grappler showing he can take his opponents to the mat and grind. He has spent this camp at his new home MMA Masters, a camp that is known for its jiu-jitsu and kicking prowess. Awesemo’s UFC DFS Fighter projections have Covington as the top fighter on the slate with 76% win odds.
Khamzat Chimaev | DraftKings: $9,400, FanDuel: $21
Chimaev is a training partner of heavyweight title challenger Alexander Gustafsson at Allstar Training Center. He is currently undefeated and has back-to-back UFC victories. His fighting resume shows that he has five wins via knockout and three via submission. However, if we take those first two fights together, Chimaev outstruck both of his opponents 88-to-1. Chimaev is an aggressive striker. However, he will be going against more experienced fighter in Gerald Meerschaert which will be an uptick in competition. Awesemo’s UFC DFS Fighter projections give Chimaev 78% win odds with a 60% chance for a knockout.
Mid-Priced Picks
Niko Price | DraftKings: $8,500, FanDuel: $17
Price has finished all but one of his career victories. He has consistently been one of the most entertaining fighters in the UFC. He has four Performance of the Night bonuses in his last five wins. None of Price’s fights have gone the distance, and only one has made it to the third round. This such be an entertaining fight to watch and it may earn Fight of the Night. Awesemo’s UFC DFS Fighter projections give Price a 50% chance for a knockout with 59% win odds.
Tyson Nam | DraftKings: $8,600, FanDuel: $17
Nam’s biggest problem is his own tendency to be overaggressive instead of being passive and waiting on opportunities. Nam’s will need to let his hands go and be the more aggressive fighter by pushing the pace. He is a more polished fighter on the feet, and he has knockout power on his hands.
Value Picks
Sarah Alpar | DraftKings: $7,300, FanDuel: $12
Alpar earned her UFC contract by submitting Shanna Young via submission on the Contender Series. Her grappling is dangerous and is her best weapon. She may be vulnerable on the feet because her striking still needs improvement. If Alpar can take Jessica-Rose Clark to the canvas, she will have a huge advantage and could win via submission or grind out a decision. Awesemo’s UFC DFS Fighter projections gives Alpar a 33% win chance.
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