Hello, UFC fans. This weekend we have a 12-fight card in Las Vegas, including a main event between Derrick Lewis and Aleksei Oleinik. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $400,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fighters I feel have the most upside and value. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS picks.
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Core Plays
Derrick Lewis | DraftKings: $9,100, FanDuel: $20
Lewis throws heavy punches. He is extremely athletic for a heavyweight and looks to be in the best shape of his professional career. He has done well avoiding submissions, only being submitted once via choke in his title fight against Daniel Cormier. Lewis knocking out Oleinik is the most likely outcome because Lewis is extremely hard to take down. So, even if Oleinik gets Lewis to the mat, Lewis’ athleticism makes him hard to pin down. Awesemo’s UFC fight projections have Lewis as the second-highest-projected fighter on the slate with 65% win odds.
Kevin Holland | DraftKings: $9,400, FanDuel: $20
Holland is a hard fighter to trust, but his knockout/submission upside is why he is a core play. He should be the more aggressive fighter in this matchup. I expect he will be more active and throwing more volume in this fight. Holland has knockout power with a strong submission game, which could be the way he finishes Joaquin Buckley. He happens to be Awesemo’s highest-projected fighter on the slate with 81% win odds.
UFC DFS Mid-Priced Picks
Irwin Rivera | DraftKings: $8,900, FanDuel: $18
Rivera will have the striking advantage in this fight. He has knockout power in his hands, solid cardio, and he can get out of dangerous situations on the mat. He put up a solid effort in his short-notice debut. Now at his real weight division for this fight, Rivera should fine far more success in this fight. Awesemo’s fighter projections have Rivera with 62% win odds.
Gavin Tucker | DraftKings: $8,400, FanDuel: $18
Tucker will be the more technical striker. He should have a huge edge on the feet with his speed and he adds takedown upside. Tucker bounced back after almost a two-year layoff, by beating Seung Woo Choi via rear-naked choke to notch his fifth submission victory. I expect Tucker to land a few takedowns, and he could possibly finish Justin Jaynes via submission. Awesemo’s projections have Tucker with 53% win odds.
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UFC DFS Value Picks
Tim Means | DraftKings: $7.900, FanDuel: $16
Means will be the more experienced fighter and will be the better striker in this fight. This play is risky, as Means looked bad in his last fight, but I expect to see a different fighter against Laureano Staropoli. In this fight, I expect to see a striking war. Staropoli could clip Means and put him to sleep, but Means could easily finish Staropoli on his feet with his striking. Means has a 44% win odds according to Awesemo’s UFC fighter projections.
Aleksei Oleinik | DraftKings: $7,500, FanDuel: $16
Oleinik has been a pro since 1996, making him the more experienced fighter by far in his matchup with Lewis. He will be shooting for takedowns, and if Oleinik can get Lewis on the mat and keep him there for any length of time, he could easily lock in a submission. That makes Oleinik a high-upside value play at $7,500, If building 25-plus lineups, I would have about 20% Oleinik just in case he pulls off another highlight reel submission. Awesemo’s projections have Oleinik with 35% win odds.
