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UFC Fantasy: Monkey Knife Fight Picks for UFC 263 Adesanya vs. Vettori | Tonight, 6/12

Matt Gajewski

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MMA DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel UFC Fight Night Hall vs. Strickland with Awesemo's FREE expert projections | 7/31.

With the long-awaited UFC 263 upon us, Monkey Knife Fight continues to feature a slew of contests. These contests provide an easy alternative to the usual MMA DFS contests. This is a variation of UFC fantasy, where you’re simply making picks regarding the fights.

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MKF features props for users to pick fantasy points and/or strikes. You will be competing only against yourself, and the payout increases with contests that require more picks.

While there are far too many contests to include them all in this article, let’s go through some of the best UFC fantasy Monkey Knife Fight picks and DFS MMA predictions to make for UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori.

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Monkey Knife Fight UFC Fantasy Picks | UFC 263

It is important to note that, much like odds that update throughout the day, contests at MKF are subject to change. So if you like these UFC picks below, it’s wise to jump on them quickly.

Rapidfire — Draft Winner of Two Matchup Categories | Prize: 3x

In this Monkey Knife Fight game type, you are picking which of two fighters will score higher in a stat category. One fighter gets a handicap, much like the spread in a typical NBA or NFL game bet. If you pick both matchups correctly, you win three times your entry fee.

Strikes: Belal Muhammad vs. Israel Adesanya (+2.5)

Strikes: Nate Diaz vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+26.5)

One of the more confusing props on this card, Adesanya receives an additional 2.5 strikes against Muhammad. Both fights expect to go the distance, but Adesanya gets an additional two rounds on Muhammad in his five-round title bout. Adesanya lands 3.95 significant strikes per minute to Muhammad’s 4.75. However, the additional rounds give Adesanya a significant advantage in his contest.

Figueiredo faced Brandon Moreno last December for the flyweight title and finished with 137 significant strikes in a decision. Diaz us also in a five-round fight. He has hit 100 strikes with ease in two of his last three fights. However, Diaz hasn’t fought in over a year, and bookmakers believe there is a strong chance he could end up finished against Leon Edwards. While Figueiredo has legitimate stopping power himself, +26.5 strikes is too much of an advantage.

UFC Fantasy MKF Picks: Israel Adesanya and Deiveson Figueiredo


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More or Less — Pick More/Less For Each Fighter | Prize: 3x

In this Monkey Knife Fight MMA fantasy contest, it is a simple more/less pick for two fighters. In this case, we’re picking strikes for both.

Brad Riddell: More than 65.5 Strikes

Lauren Murphy: More than 62.5 Strikes

A striker’s paradise, both Riddell and Drew Dober excel on the feet. Riddell averages 4.36 significant strikes per minute and eclipsed 65.5 strikes in two of his three UFC fights. Dober throws with even more volume, potentially coaxing Riddell into a high-output affair. With the fight expected to hit decision, over 65.5 strikes for Riddell makes sense.

Another fight expected to primarily stand, Murphy takes on an excellent striker in Joanne Calderwood. Murphy only lands 3.80 significant strikes per minute. However, she throws with more volume than that number indicates. Her 38% striking accuracy holds her back in this regard. On the other side, she has a willing challenger in Calderwood. Calderwood lands 6.59 significant strikes per minute, which again could coax Murphy into a high-output affair. The pick is Murphy over 62.5 strikes.

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More or Less — Pick More/Less For Each Fighter | Prize: 15x

This is another More or Less contest where we will decide whether each fighter will have more or fewer than the strikes shown. There are five fighters this time, and picking all five correctly will result in us winning 15 times our entry.

Brad Riddell: More than 65.5 Strikes

Hakeem Dawodu: Fewer than 70.5 Strikes

Drew Dober: More than 92.5 Strikes

Movsar Evloev: Fewer than 108.5 Strikes

Joanne Calderwood: Fewer than 131.5 Strikes

Dawodu faces undefeated prospect Movsar Evloev. Dawodu has eclipsed 70 strikes in three of his five UFC fights that went to decision. However, he faces a step up in competition against Evloev. Evloev relies primarily on his wrestling and likely will bring this fight to the mat. Evloev has allowed more than 70 strikes one time. On top of that, Evloev has elite 64% striking defense, absorbing just 2.83 significant strikes per minute.

One of the tougher fights to predict on this card, Dober sits at a -150 favorite over Riddell. With both expected to strike, Dober’s 4.33 strikes per minute average point to the over. Dober has only eclipsed 92 strikes once in his 17-fight UFC career. However, only five of those fights made it to decision. With this fight expected to go the distance, Dober should throw with higher output that normal. While it hasn’t happened often, Dober will eclipse 92.5 strikes here.

Evloev relies on his wrestling as this primary weapon. While Evloev lands 4.70 strikes per minute, he only has 44% accuracy. Evloev has never eclipsed 82 strikes in any of his four decision wins at the UFC level. Dawodu is a pure striker, making Evloev’s best path to victory his wrestling. With potentially depressed striking volume overall, looking at fewer than 108.5 strikes makes the most sense here.

Calderwood looks like one of the more aggressive strikers on this card. However, 131.5 strikes is too lofty. Calderwood has eclipsed 131.5 strikes just one time in her UFC career. While Murphy likes to strike herself, she may also look to implement her wrestling. Calderwood has just 58% takedown defense, and though Murphy isn’t much of a submission threat, taking Calderwood down could help her win rounds and subsequently depress striking volume. Fewer than 131.5 strikes for Calderwood is the pick.


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Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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