UFC DFS Picks: UFC 253 Breakdown

,Hello, UFC fans. This weekend we have a 11-fight card in Abu Dhabi, including a main event between Israel Adesanya and Paulo Costa. The main GPP has $100,000 going to first place with a total of $500,000 being paid out. Here I will offer the fights I feel have the most upside for DFS purposes. Let’s dig into some UFC DFS analysis.

William Knight $7,600 vs. Aleksa Camur $8.600

William Knight

Age: 32
Height: 5-foot-8
Weight: 205 lbs.
Reach: 73 ins.
Record: 8-1-0
Striking Accuracy: N/A
Betting Odds: +140

Knight is coming in on a two-fight win streak, whereas all eight wins have came via knockout. He has five first-round finishes, including two fights where he was locking in a submission but turned it into TKO. Knight has power in his hands that can put any opponents lights out in a hurry. He throws nasty head kicks, his grappling is solid, and his ground and pound extremely dangerous. In this fight, Knight will look to keep this fight standing, although if the fight hits the canvas, Camur will have the clear advantage.

Aleksa Camur

Age: 24
Height: 6-foot-1.
Weight: 205 lbs.
Reach: 74 ins.
Record: 6-0-0
Striking Accuracy: N/A
Betting Odds: -160

Camur is coming in with an undefeated record. He has five wins by knockout and one via decision. He is most dangerous when going with the flow of the fight, not looking for the finish but letting a finish come to him. Camur trains out of the Ohio-based Strong Style Fight Team, while also being a regular sparring partner of UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic. His boxing is well ahead of the curve by UFC standards. Moreover, Camur carries huge knockout power in his hands. I expect Camur will look to make this a striking battle, although Knight has dangerous power, Camur will have the advantage in boxing.

My preferred play is Camur. I expect his boxing skills to pick Knight apart, which could lead to a possible first-round finish.

UFC DFS Pick: Aleksa Camur via First-Round KO/TKO.

Diego Sanchez $6,800 vs. Jake Matthews $9,400

Diego Sanchez

Age: 38
Height: 5-foot-8
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 72 ins.
Record: 31-12-0
Striking Accuracy: N/A
Betting Odds: +525

Sanchez is coming off a win via disqualification over Michel Pereira at UFC 167. Before the Illegal knee, Sanchez seemed to be well on his way to consecutive losses. The interesting aspect of this fight will be Sanchez’s cornerman, Stephen Bonnar, who last fought in 2014. These two almost came to blows over asparagus heads on the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Sanchez will need to be focused and keep this fight off the mat. Sanchez has the skills to hold his on if this fight hits the canvas, but Matthews will have the clear grappling advantage.

Jake Matthews

Age: 26
Height: 5-foot-9
Weight: 170 lbs.
Reach: 73 ins.
Record: 16-4-0
Striking Accuracy: N/A
Betting Odds: -750

Matthews had won four of his last five fights as a lightweight before consecutive losses to Kevin Lee and Andrew Holbrook, which sent him back to welterweight. He has seven submissions and four knockouts in his professional career. Matthews will be better fighter everywhere in this fight, because he is the bigger, younger fighter and will have the better cardio.

My preferred play is Matthews, because I expect Matthews to dominate this fight and could possibly catch Sanchez in a submission early second round.

UFC DFS Pick: Jake Matthews via Unanimous Decision.

Brad Riddell $9,200 vs. Alex da Silva $7,000

Brad Riddell

Age: 28
Height: 5-foot-6
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 71 ins.
Record: 8-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 59%
Betting Odds: -330

Riddell has had an awesome start to his UFC career going 2-0, with a huge win against Magomed Mustafaev. He is a solid grappler, while using feints to draw out takedowns where he can gain top control over his opponents. Riddell is an extremely explosive fighter. He throws nasty kicks to the body and head. He will use his combinations and feints to pick his opponents apart. Riddell can get wild at times, which he showed against Jamie Mullarkey when he was rocked and knocked down. I expect Riddell to make this a striking battle. Whereas Da Silva can hold his own on the feet, Riddell should have a slight advantage.

Alex da Silva

Age: 24
Height: 5-foot-7
Weight: 155 lbs.
Reach: 73 ins.
Record: 21-2-0
Striking Accuracy: 43%
Betting Odds: +270

Da Silva is coming in on a dominant performance against Rodrigo Vargas. He is an extremely good striker, nevertheless he can be wild and is extremely easy to hit. Da Silva throws nasty round kicks to the body, whereas can be dangerous and put his opponents lights out. He has a solid submission game, but he does not look to be that good of a wrestler. Da Silva is dangerous off his back, where he will go on the attack looking for armbars and tringles. In this fight, I expect da Silva to look to get this fight to the mat while looking for a submission. That seems to be his only path to victory.

My preferred play is Riddell. I expect Riddell to use his feints to set up a clean shot that will put da Silva on the canvas.

UFC DFS Pick: Brad Riddell via Second-Round KO/TKO.

Dominick Reyes $9,000 vs. Jan Blachowicz $7,200

Dominick Reyes

Age: 30
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 205 lbs.
Reach: 77 ins.
Record: 12-1-0
Striking Accuracy: 49%
Betting Odds: -290

Reyes is a super athlete with huge knockout power. He will back opponents against the cage, then he will throw hard elbows and powerful uppercuts. Reyes has six knockouts, all coming in the first round, which shows how powerful and dangerous his striking can be. He is a well-rounded fighter with elite skills. I expect Reyes to be the better fighter everywhere. If he does not get a knockout, then his high-volume striking should lead to an easy decision win, which should score well for DFS purposes.

Jan Blachowicz

Age: 37
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 205 lbs.
Reach: 78 ins.
Record: 26-8-0
Striking Accuracy: 49%
Betting Odds: +245

Blachowicz has a solid grappling game. Once the fight hits the mat, obviously he will be looking to gain top control and Blachowicz ground and pound is nasty. Blachowicz’s submission game is extremely dangerous, whereas he will need to look for takedowns and get this fight to the canvas, but I expect that will be a huge task against Reyes. He is a solid striker with good power, but he probably does not possess the power Reyes has.

My preferred play is Reyes. Whereas I expect Reyes to use his power striking , because of the volume he should be able to cruise to a knockout victory or even an easy decision.

UFC DFS Pick: Dominick Reyes via Second-Round KO/TKO.

Israel Adesanya $8,500 vs. Paulo Costa $7,700

Israel Adesanya

Age: 31
Height: 6-foot-3
Weight: 185 lbs.
Reach: 80 ins.
Record: 19-0-0
Striking Accuracy: 49%
Betting Odds: -170

This should be the toughest test for Adesanya yet. Adesanya has been phenomenal thus far in his UFC career, although his last fight against Yoel Romero was a disappointing performance. So far Adesanya has made good on his word by facing every top contender the division has to offer. Futhermore, Adesanya could compete at light heavyweight with his physique, but instead he chooses to fight at middleweight. Adesanya’s striking is precise. He has power, but his timing is his bread and butter. I expect this to be a striking battle, whereas Adesanya will use his precise striking to keep Costa at range.

Paulo Costa

Age: 29
Height: 6-foot-1
Weight: 185 lbs.
Reach: 72 ins.
Record: 13-0-0
Striking Accuracy: 59%
Betting Odds: +150

It has taken Costa just five fights in the UFC to make it to title contention. Costa is big for the division, because of his size can easily walk his opponents down where he will pin them to the cage. Costa seems to have a bullying approach in the Octagon, because he walks his opponents down and he can be over aggressive at times. He has 11 wins by knockout and this will be his stiffest test yet, although he has run through most of his opponents. One concern with Costa is his gas tank, whereas it possible he empty the tank if this fight goes five rounds.

My preferred play is Adesanya. I expect Adesanya to counter Costa with a big shot that he will never see coming.

UFC DFS Picks: Israel Adesanya via Third-Round KO/TKO.

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