NASCAR DFS Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Picks (FREE)

The field is set for Sunday’s playoff race at Texas with Kevin Harvick on the pole with Joey Logano beside him. Therefore, let’s get into the top NASCAR DFS plays for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.

NASCAR DFS Lineup Construction

As we transition from a 267-lap/400-mile race at Kansas, we now make preparations for a 327-lap/ 500-mile race at Texas this weekend. The additional 50 laps create an, even more, likelier scenario where 3 dominators will be optimal on DraftKings. Further, with soft prices this weekend (aka no one over $11,000) it becomes even easier to sneak a 3rd dominator into lineups. That being said, in cash I’ll still go with just 2 lap leaders.

As per FanDuel, the additional 50 laps results in just 5 extra laps led points. Thus, lineups probably don’t look too far off from Kansas. Give me 2 dominators in all lineups and mix and match the place differential options.

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Potential Dominators

Earlier this week I tackled the elephant in the room, i.e. Kevin Harvick on the pole. What was intended to be a preview for Texas became a struggle session with how to approach the year’s most dominant driver in the position we seemingly don’t want him in – starting first. As I stated in that article, what you do with Harvick will probably be the biggest determining factor in ROI this Sunday.

Outside of Harvick, the first driver my eyes go to is Kansas winner Joey Logano. This weekend will see Goodyear run the same tire combo that they used at Kansas. Naturally, we should give attention to the driver who won that event – that being Logano. All it took last weekend was a simple pit stop to get Logano out front and he was darn near impossible for Harvick to maneuver around. The same circumstances we just witnessed are on the table this weekend at Texas.

After the front row, you can go a myriad of ways. While it makes more sense to give credence to the playoff drivers left, I can’t help but think Ryan Blaney should be on the top of our boards. In the July-Texas race, Blaney led the most laps that day (150) and probably would have won if not for a late caution that caught Blaney in the teens after he just pitted. We saw Blaney run strong as well last weekend but like every other driver stuck in second, that dirty wall of air behind the leader is tough to pass through.

If you’re going to side with the playoff drivers, I say we go back to the well with Denny Hamlin. The driver of the #11 fought his way to the lead at Kansas and should have been a factor for the win but saw his day collapse after having to pit with a tire-rub. Hamlin’s averages at Texas aren’t impressive since 2017, so maybe that will keep his ownership down. Hamlin is, however, a former winner at Texas in 2019, and in our six race corollary, Hamlin has led the second-most laps behind only Harvick.

Tournament Place Differential

Erik Jones 17th ($10,700 FanDuel, $8,900 DraftKings) – “It was working until it wasn’t”… Essentially, that’s how I feel about Jones who was well on his way to being a good tournament option until he had his own tire-rub. Now we go from Kansas, a track where he had mild success, to Texas where the worst finish in his past six races here is 10th. His price is certainly elevated but that starting position gives us access to place differential. On DK, Jones is your direct pivot off from Clint Bowyer.

Thanks to the starting grid formula, we have lots of “easy” place differential options. In fact, I have all but three drivers highlighted as cash plays from drivers starting 19th through 32nd. Thus, the easiest way to differentiate for tournaments is going to be pivoting based on ownership. Generally, we just look at the cash plays and find a driver in the teens at a similar price. This week, those swaps just aren’t there.

As of writing this, ownership numbers are still in the works. Be sure to check back later when the Top Driver’s Tool is reloaded on Saturday.

Cash Place Differential

Jimmie Johnson 26th ($9,800 FanDuel, $9,400 DraftKings) – Let me be clear, this is an option, not a preferred play. If you only roster two dominators, you may need to necessarily spend up and Johnson gives you the best floor of any non lap leaders in his price range. However, this is not a driver you need to force into your lineups. In Johnson’s last seven trips to Texas, he only has three finishes on the lead lap.

Ryan Newman 25th ($7,000 FanDuel, $6,400 DraftKings) – Newman is exactly why I say you don’t have to force Johnson. Newman gives you a driver with a similar floor, and possibly upside at this point, for nearly $3,000 less on either site. Regardless, as Newman’s skill seems to slide with his age, his finishes at Texas have been some of his best. In reverse order, his last four finishes at Texas have gone 13th, 15th, 11th, and 18th.

Corey Lajoie 28th ($4,000 FanDuel, $5,600 DraftKings) – Lajoie is the preferred punt play across both sites. In the July-Texas race, Lajoie finished 16th. In our six corollary races, Lajoie’s average finish sits at 23rd. If looking for some narrative to add to your decision making, Lajoie is still rideless for 2021 and is probably competing for a chance to drive the #37 next season.

Others; Ty Dillon, John Hunter Nemechek, Matt Kenseth

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Author

Phillip Bennetzen

Phill Bennetzen is the creator of the RaceSheets; all-inclusive stats and data NASCAR DFS spreadsheets for the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup Series. Phill and the RaceSheets can be found at racesheetsdfs.substack.com